Assertion Contradicted AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Global temperatures will rise for a century even if emissions stop

Nathan Myhrvold · Nathan Myhrvold · Mar 21, 2023 · at 40:03

Nathan Myhrvold, founder of Intellectual Ventures and former Microsoft CTO, explains atmospheric physics and climate lag models to Shane Parrish.

0:00 / 0:39exact quote · 39.6s

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“It turns out if you stopped all emissions on day one, the climate will continue to drift, drift upwards for about a hundred years. I have written a bunch of papers on global warming. I've done this calculation. Other people have done this calculation. You know, you can quibble as to whether it's 85 years or a 110 years, but it's something in that range. Then, it'll slowly start going down. It will take 145 years for it to equal the same temperature on the day that you panicked and shut it off.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

If humanity stopped all greenhouse gas emissions immediately, global temperatures would continue rising for roughly 85 to 110 years and take 145 years to return to the baseline level.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Peer-reviewed climate physics literature and major Earth system model assessments directly contradict the claim that an immediate cessation of greenhouse gas emissions would result in 85 to 110 years of ongoing temperature increases. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) and the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP, MacDougall et al., 2020) establish that the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) after complete cessation of CO2 emissions is approximately 0.0°C (with multi-decadal model mean changes near -0.07°C), as ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake reduces atmospheric CO2 concentrations fast enough to balance the effect of declining ocean heat uptake. Studies by Matthews & Caldeira (2008) and Ricke & Caldeira (2014) similarly demonstrate that maximum warming from emissions occurs within roughly 10 years, followed by temperature stabilization rather than a century-long upward drift. The 85- to 110-year figures cited by Myhrvold derive from his 2012 paper modeling the multi-decade lifecycle emissions of gradual energy infrastructure transitions (e.g., replacing coal plants over 40–100 years), which conflates active structural transition timelines with the climate physics of an immediate, abrupt shut-off.

IPCC AR6 WG1 (August 2021) assessed the multi-decadal Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC50) to have a central estimate of 0.0°C (likely range -0.15°C to +0.15°C), showing temperatures stabilize immediately rather than rising for a century.
ZECMIP (MacDougall et al., June 2020) evaluated 18 Earth system models and found an ensemble mean temperature change of -0.07°C 50 years after emissions cease.
Ricke and Caldeira (December 2014) showed maximum warming from carbon dioxide emissions peaks after a median of 10.1 years and then plateaus.
Myhrvold and Caldeira (February 2012) developed the 50- to 110-year timeline exclusively for gradual infrastructure replacement scenarios (active ongoing emissions during build-out), not an abrupt complete cessation of all emissions.

Checked against

[1] carbonbrief.org [2] exeter.ac.uk [3] unepccc.org [4] canada.ca [5] 350.me.uk [6] researchgate.net [7] researchgate.net [8] ciunit.org

IPCC zero emissions commitment temperature rise after emissions stop Zero Emissions Commitment ZECMIP global temperature after zero emissions Myhrvold Caldeira greenhouse gas emissions warming years "Nathan Myhrvold" climate emissions "85" OR "110" OR "145"

assessed as of 2026-09-03

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

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