Opinion
Manned spaceflight is a reality TV show with no functional purpose
“I mean, today, the manned space flight is a reality TV show. And in fact, the cutting edge of manned space flight is space tourism. That's what Blue Origin and SpaceX and others are gearing up for, and there's just no reason to take a fragile human up there.”
Opinion
Globally, society is doing effectively nothing to address climate change
“Currently we're doing, to first order approximation, exactly nothing for climate change.”
Assertion Contradicted
Natural gas produces more net global warming than coal
“Natural gas actually produces more global warming in almost every case than coal.”
Assertion Contradicted
Driving a Tesla on the US East Coast actively hurts the climate
“If you drive a Tesla and you live in the East Coast of the United States, statistically speaking, you're hurting the climate, not helping it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Air Force bias favors human pilots over superior combat drones
“It's been true for a long time that humans are the weakest part of a fighter jet. You should use drones. You should totally use drones. But the Air Force, which is composed entirely of pilots or former pilots, hated that idea. Yeah. But drones are here to stay…”
Opinion
The space colonization drive is an imperialist holdover, not a necessity
“In terms of a need to, like, colonize the solar system, I don't think, I think people believe that that's an imperative as a holdover from the ideas of the age of imperialism when we thought, oh yes, we have to go conquer and colonize the whole world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The world will inevitably experience a major bioterrorism event
“So I think we'll see a bioterrorism event someday.”
Assertion Contradicted
Global temperatures will rise for a century even if emissions stop
“It turns out if you stopped all emissions on day one, the climate will continue to drift, drift upwards for about a hundred years. I have written a bunch of papers on global warming. I've done this calculation. Other people have done this calculation. You know…”
Insight
Geoengineering should be treated like emergency open-heart surgery for the climate
“Yeah, humans, there will probably be some consequences. So you should only pull out the, ah, the geoengineering, ah, fix if it's otherwise unmitigated disaster. Just like they wouldn't crack my chest open if I went into the emergency room with a hangnail. They…”
Opinion
Treating Mars as a backup planet will inevitably ruin Mars too
“It probably makes a lot more sense to try to take care of this planet and not screw it up than to treat Earth as being disposable and say, oh, it's okay, we're gonna go, we'll have Mars. Because if you keep thinking that way, you're gonna screw Mars up too.”
Assertion Partly supported
Modern high-speed trains in Europe and Asia effectively operate autonomously
“Well, many modern train systems are autonomous for all intents and purposes. They will have humans on board as a safety or a backup feature, but when you have modern trains, by which I don't mean any train in the United States, I'm afraid, but if you have the …”
Insight
Myhrvold: Society fixes ecological problems that are localized with clear responsibility
“Whenever we have a problem that is an ecological problem that is localized in space, localized in time, and is easy to trace responsibility, we fix it.”
Assertion Supported
First-year methane warming impact is 120 times higher than CO2
“Methane, on the first year you spill it, it's a 120 times higher global warming impact than CO₂.”
Assertion Supported
Emitted atmospheric carbon dioxide persists for roughly 20,000 years
“So, when you emit CO₂, it stays in the atmosphere for a really long time. Thousands of years. Tens of thousands of years. People argue, but you wouldn't be totally wrong by saying there was a 20,000 year lifespan.”
Disclosure
TerraPower secures deal to build an advanced nuclear plant in Wyoming
“Now, as it turns out that project didn't go forward, and we're currently trying to build our new plant in Wyoming, and we have a deal to do that, which is very exciting.”
Assertion Supported
Myhrvold left a postdoc with Stephen Hawking to build a startup
“Took a leave of absence to work on a project I had started in graduate school with some friends. And that project turned into a software company, and I became the CEO of the company. And Then Microsoft bought the company, and I was at Microsoft.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stephen Hawking emailed Myhrvold asking if he was returning after Microsoft
“Many, many years later, I retired from Microsoft, and when that was announced, I got an email the next day from Steven saying, shall we clear out the office? Are you coming back?”
Assertion Supported
Myhrvold convinced Bill Gates to grant him leave for culinary school
“Well, I had to convince the Culinary Institute in France to take me as a student. I had to convince Bill to give me a leave of absence. But it worked out.”
Nathan Myhrvold