The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 290 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
St. John: Very Few US EVs Will Qualify for $7,500 Tax Credit
“With China dominating so much, between 70 to 90% of key precursor, you know materials and kind of components of lithium ion batteries that very few, if any, EVs sold in the U.S. Will be eligible for that 7500 per EV tax credit”
Pending project approvals could quadruple US LNG export capacity
“There's a whole wave of new proposals Coming after that that, if this administration approves, could even quadruple LNG from where we are today.”
LNG operators will actively undermine clean energy investment for decades
“These are projects that are going to take years to build and once they're built, they rely on streams of demand and markets for decades in order to make them profitable. And so they're going to be creating those markets. They're going to be doing everything th…”
The Biden administration will likely pause new LNG export permits
“So I think having signed that Dubai declaration They're probably sending a signal that they're getting ready to do this right thing on this biggest single challenge that they face.”
McKibben predicts the Biden administration will reject the CP2 export license
“That's why I'm pretty sure that the Biden administration will see reason and say, we're not going to approve.”
Wesoff: Tech billionaires trying to disrupt nuclear with software will fail
“We have these hordes of software developer billionaires thinking that they can disrupt the nuclear industry just like you can disrupt the software industry, and I think they're going to be sadly disappointed very soon.”
Ramanathan: Traditional project finance models cannot scale to triple renewables
“And it strikes me that we're not going to triple, you know, the renewed installed renewables using this model. I think we need something radically different, and it's exciting to think about what that might look like.”
AI energy models risk perpetuating human over-planning and forecasting biases
“And I think the challenge with those models and those biases getting into the models is that all the things that we're trying to get away, those inefficiencies we all talk about getting away from, like over-planning, over-forecasting, having over-capacity on c…”
Kimber: Most projects in transmission queues will never be built
“Most of the stuff that's in the queue isn't even going to get built because there's no land that's even reasonable around those queue positions, right? There it's, you'd have to build something that costs twice as much as it should because the geotechnical con…”
Kimber: Energy load will move directly to power generation sites
“Load will come to generation, right? So load is going to move toward the generation because the grid isn't going to be able to deliver that generation. And that's, you'll see it most, in a most pronounced fashion in these new industries because they don't have…”
Pfund: Cost Declines for Newer Clean Tech Won't Match Solar's
“I predict that the cost decline in these newer technologies will not be as impressive. That 10 years from now, we will not see .”
Del Chiaro: California's electricity load will at least double from electrification
“We anticipate our electricity load is going to at least double just from our electrification initiatives in the next couple of years, and that's not counting any kind of impact climate change has on electricity consumption.”
US hydrogen rules will likely adopt three pillars with phase-ins
“The U.S. Guidance is likely to follow these three pillars that are outlined on additionality, temporal matching, and deliverability or geographic correlation with some sort of phase in, particularly on the requirement for additionality, so for new renewable en…”
Green hydrogen will become cheaper than blue hydrogen by 2030
“If we scaled it up to potentially hundreds of gigawatts by the end of the decade and going further, we expect the cost of that equipment to decline by 50, 60, or 70% or so, which really drives cost reductions of Green or renewable hydrogen below the cost of pr…”
Hydrogen electrolyzers could consume one-third of global power by 2050
“By twenty-fifty, under a net zero scenario, electrolyzers producing hydrogen take up a third of all electricity demand almost, just to power power themselves to produce hydrogen. So all of global, a third of all global electricity demand.”
Naam: Solar electricity costs will drop 4x by reaching one-third global generation
“So my personal forecast is the cost of solar electricity will drop by another factor of four. By the time electricity is, by the time solar is about a third of all electricity generation on Earth.”
Naam: IRA spending will reach trillions due to uncapped subsidies
“It's not four and fifty billion dollars of federal spending a year. It's like trillions. Because the IRA is not a pool of money. It's a per unit subsidy. And forecasters always do what? On unit forecasts, they always underestimate it, right? So the actual size…”
Naam: Clean electricity will beat fossil fuels if permitting opens up
“Like, in an open playing field, if it's easier to build pipelines and transmission lines, Clean electricity is going to win.”
Naam: Total fossil fuel use and emissions will peak by 2030
“And I think we'll have peak total fossil fuels and peak emissions sometime later in this decade, ah, towards 2030.”
Naam: Odds of limiting global warming to 1.5°C are minuscule
“But the bad news is we have missed 1.5 degrees C, and I don't know how to say this anymore clearly, because there are people that will tell you that we might hit it. The odds of that are minuscule.”
Brynjolfsson: AI will transform all industries and displace major corporate titans
“And as it ripples through the economy, every industry is going to be transformed. And just as with electricity, some of the great titans went out of business and new companies arose, the same thing is happening today where some of the big successful companies …”
Tomlinson: New firming requirements will definitely slow Texas renewable investment
“This is going to be really expensive. It's also going to be highly political because we don't know yet what the PUC will assign to different facilities, but it will definitely slow down new investment in Texas, renewable energy.”
Shah: 20 nuclear orders will come in by 2025 or 2026
“And the goal, I think, is by 20, 25, 26, right, when OPG is in full construction for there to be 20 orders that come in, right, and I think I think once that happens, then I think all the electric utilities will come very quickly, because they have a huge amou…”
Lott: Up to 17 states tied to California rules may ban gas cars
“New York is also banning gas-powered car sales by twenty-thirty-five, and soon, as many as 17 other states, like Washington and Massachusetts, which currently have vehicle emissions standards tied to California's, may follow suit.”
Morris: Edge assets will reach 30-50% of grid capacity within 10 years
“And if you look at all of those assets, so all of these small scale assets, Those are really going to be the future of how we balance the grid in the next 10 years. They're going to account for anywhere between, like, 30 and 50% of total system capacity.”
Shah: US will produce 10 million tons of clean hydrogen by 2030
“So I believe that by 2030, we will have ten million tons of clean hydrogen in this country.”
Shah: Heating Homes With Piped Hydrogen Will Never Happen
“The notion that we're going to be heating our homes with hydrogen coming through pipes, like, I mean, I think that is, that's never going to happen”
Shah: Unmanaged electric vehicle charging will break the current grid
“And then the last thing I would say, it is very obvious to everyone that electric vehicles will break the current grid. It is not possible to do what we're currently doing, letting people just charge whenever they want, do whatever they want, whenever they wan…”
Mark Fields: Ford intended to launch Level 4 vehicles by 2021
“It remains our intention to introduce a fully autonomous level four vehicle into the marketplace in 2021 in mobility services.”
Niedermeyer: Autonomy will probably transform logistics before passenger cars
“Oh no, this is probably going to transform supply chain logistics and countless other non-consumer facing applications before It ever changes cars.”
Panama Bartholomy: California Will Ban Gas Appliances Within Seven Years
“California's gonna be banning this stuff in seven years, so start the transition now when there's a lot of money and incentives going.”
Friedman: Carbon removal will necessarily become the largest market in human history
“The carbon removal market will necessarily be the biggest market of all human history”
Atwood: Green hydrogen could be the cheapest steelmaking method by 2050
“The simplest way to put it is that we think by twenty-fifty, making steel with hydrogen could be the cheapest way to do it.”
Hamilton: Per-kWh production tax credits will make US a battery leader
“That is going to transform the market for EVs and for all batteries. If you are paid by the kilowatt hours produced, I mean, companies are already starting to move their operations to the U.S., this will completely transform it, and I think we will become a gl…”
Mitrova: Europe faces wartime energy rationing and physical shortages this winter
“And in the wartime, the economy is mobilized, and the decisions are made by the governments, not by the free market. So this is the case for Europe this winter, and there will be lots of very difficult and painful choices on which industries, which groups of c…”
Mitrova: Nord Stream 1 might restart in two weeks at low volume
“I assume that in two weeks the Flow via Nord Stream might be restarted, but at a very, very low volume. Not at the historical normal levels. And to, and they can be stopped at any moment, again, under the same pretext that turbines need to be maintained, just …”
Mitrova: Energy inflation will destabilize developing nations by winter 2022
“I am frankly expecting a domino effect in terms of destabilization of the societies which are not really rich and stable. So this speed load effect it will be seen, I'm afraid, already this winter.”
Corbeau: High gas prices may push Southeast Asia from coal directly to renewables
“So we may actually be destroying that demand potential in the long term. So if you are thinking that, hey, I am going to sell LNG to Europe for 10 years, and then by 2035, I will have potential in Southeast Asia. I am not so sure. First of all, because they ma…”
Mitrova: EU oil embargo will likely reduce Russian exports by only 10-15%
“In the longer term, as the EU is implementing its oil embargo, and with all these constraints on insurance and shipping, There will be definitely some effect to limited extent. So we are probably talking about 10, 15% decline in the Russian oil exports and cor…”
Mitrova: Energy sanctions won't deliver destructive damage to Russia for years
“And yes, of course, there is damage already for the Russian budget revenues and for the Russian oil and gas industry, but it's not such a destructive damage as people were initially discussing in the beginning of this year. So it will take much longer. It will…”
Citizen-driven solar in Puerto Rico will reach 1 gigawatt by 2025
“The fossil fuel industry still have a total control of PREPA, but we have done like a projection by 20, 25, Puerto Rico should be producing by net metering by citizenship. Citizen investment up to one gigawatt of power, which will be more than necessary for re…”
Westhoff: US Energy Transition Cannot Happen Without Imports
“The energy transition does not happen in the United States without imports.”
Kahn: Greenidge provides a blueprint for private equity to resurrect fossil plants
“It's absolutely possible that those plants could come back just like Greenwich did. And that, I think, is the biggest concern here is that if you are a Bitcoin mining company, if you are a private equity firm, if you're a venture capitalist, You can be looking…”
Lovins: Russia's war will push global fossil fuel use into steep decline
“Putin's war really puts the last nails in that coffin, turning what was usually forecast as a bumpy plateau of fossil fuel use for most of the rest of this decade into a steep decline.”
Lovins: European Purchases Of Russian Natural Gas Will Disappear By 2023
“It now looks like the purchases of Russian gas will be cut by two-thirds this year alone, and probably be gone by Next summer, at latest, next autumn”
Kimber: Five clean energy sectors will become multi-hundred-billion industries
“So, you know, those five industries are what we've identified as, you know, the areas where we think there is inevitable growth in the sort of hundreds of billions of dollars. These are industries that could easily be some of the largest industries that our pl…”
Kimber: Direct air capture costs will drop to $100-$200 per ton
“There are plenty of them out there at industrial scales that will definitely get down into the, you know, 102 hundred dollar, you know, a ton kind of level, at which point capture becomes your backstop technology, if you will, and it will set the price point a…”
Harris: Flawed adaptation could make parts of Miami unlivable within decades
“And if they do it right, they create an area that people continue to invest in and live in For decades, and if they do it wrong, they doom parts of the city to be flooded and unlivable and uninvestable in the next 20 or 30 years.”