Dr. Tatiana Mitrova, an energy scholar, discusses Moscow's natural gas strategy and the likelihood of Nord Stream 1 pipeline flows resuming during the 2022 European energy crisis.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mitrova: Europe faces wartime energy rationing and physical shortages this winter
“And in the wartime, the economy is mobilized, and the decisions are made by the governments, not by the free market. So this is the case for Europe this winter, and there will be lots of very difficult and painful choices on which industries, which groups of c…”
Assertion Supported
Mitrova: 25 out of 30 European Gas Buyers Accepted Ruble Payments
“Even recently with this very controversial introduction of rubble payments for gas, It worked, because 25 out of 30 consumers have accepted it, and only few refused, and the tensions have increased immediately.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mitrova: Gazprom is technically prepared to sustain a 30% production cut
“And actually Gazprom, first of all, is used to huge swings due to the seasonality. It's about 30% up and down in winter and in summer. So keeping all overall production at 30% lower level than normal, it is something that Gazprom is technically prepared to do.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitrova: Energy inflation will destabilize developing nations by winter 2022
“I am frankly expecting a domino effect in terms of destabilization of the societies which are not really rich and stable. So this speed load effect it will be seen, I'm afraid, already this winter.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mitrova: Sri Lanka asked Putin for energy aid amid anti-Western alignment
“Sri Lanka has already called Putin to help, to start supplies of energy, and this is part of the bigger geopolitical strategy of building anti-Western bloc where energy will be an essential part bringing together very different countries, because they are lack…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mitrova: EU oil embargo will likely reduce Russian exports by only 10-15%
“In the longer term, as the EU is implementing its oil embargo, and with all these constraints on insurance and shipping, There will be definitely some effect to limited extent. So we are probably talking about 10, 15% decline in the Russian oil exports and cor…”