Dr. Tatiana Mitrova discusses developing nations pivoting toward Russia for energy security amid global shortages.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mitrova: Europe faces wartime energy rationing and physical shortages this winter
“And in the wartime, the economy is mobilized, and the decisions are made by the governments, not by the free market. So this is the case for Europe this winter, and there will be lots of very difficult and painful choices on which industries, which groups of c…”
Assertion Supported
Mitrova: 25 out of 30 European Gas Buyers Accepted Ruble Payments
“Even recently with this very controversial introduction of rubble payments for gas, It worked, because 25 out of 30 consumers have accepted it, and only few refused, and the tensions have increased immediately.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitrova: Nord Stream 1 might restart in two weeks at low volume
“I assume that in two weeks the Flow via Nord Stream might be restarted, but at a very, very low volume. Not at the historical normal levels. And to, and they can be stopped at any moment, again, under the same pretext that turbines need to be maintained, just …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mitrova: Gazprom is technically prepared to sustain a 30% production cut
“And actually Gazprom, first of all, is used to huge swings due to the seasonality. It's about 30% up and down in winter and in summer. So keeping all overall production at 30% lower level than normal, it is something that Gazprom is technically prepared to do.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitrova: Energy inflation will destabilize developing nations by winter 2022
“I am frankly expecting a domino effect in terms of destabilization of the societies which are not really rich and stable. So this speed load effect it will be seen, I'm afraid, already this winter.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mitrova: EU oil embargo will likely reduce Russian exports by only 10-15%
“In the longer term, as the EU is implementing its oil embargo, and with all these constraints on insurance and shipping, There will be definitely some effect to limited extent. So we are probably talking about 10, 15% decline in the Russian oil exports and cor…”