Clean tech analyst Ramez Naam predicts the future trajectory of solar power cost reductions.
Opinion
Naam: Wilderness no longer exists; preserving ecosystems requires active human management
“There is no such thing as wilderness on planet Earth anymore. We have modified the climate such that if you're, if it's a forest, if it's a coral reef, if it's a wetlands, It doesn't exist in the same climactic band that that natural ecosystem evolved in. And …”
Opinion
Naam: Continent-scale transmission is the most underrated clean energy technology
“The most underrated of those technologies is super long duration transmission. That is probably the one that... Ultra long distance, like coast-to-coast, continent-scale transmission. It's probably the one that has the best upside and the most certainty that w…”
Assertion Supported
Naam: Space launch costs are dropping faster than solar power costs
“Space launch is getting cheaper faster than solar. Only, only two things in history have gotten cheap faster than solar to date, which are computing and gene sequencing or gene printing. But right now, we're in a phase where the cost of space launch is actuall…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
Naam: IRA spending will reach trillions due to uncapped subsidies
“It's not four and fifty billion dollars of federal spending a year. It's like trillions. Because the IRA is not a pool of money. It's a per unit subsidy. And forecasters always do what? On unit forecasts, they always underestimate it, right? So the actual size…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Naam: Clean electricity will beat fossil fuels if permitting opens up
“Like, in an open playing field, if it's easier to build pipelines and transmission lines, Clean electricity is going to win.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Naam: Total fossil fuel use and emissions will peak by 2030
“And I think we'll have peak total fossil fuels and peak emissions sometime later in this decade, ah, towards 2030.”