The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,579 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mukhopadhyay: Non-CO2 aircraft impacts like contrails cause twice the warming of CO2
“They say that current research suggests that the impact, the non CO two impacts, which includes these contrail formation can be twice as much as the impact from CO two alone.”
Orbuch: The Clean Air Act caused net warming by reducing reflective aerosols
“The Clean Air Act was pretty meaningfully net warming for Earth, right? Like, it was an objectively good thing, obviously. Like, it saved probably millions of lives. It protected, you know, millions of people, and especially vulnerable communities from really …”
Orbuch: Forest carbon protocols completely ignore albedo effects that negate carbon storage
“No freaking forest carbon protocol accounts for albedo. And in some cases, it's, like, enough to almost undo the carbon storage provided by the forest.”
Shah: Green ammonia is profitable today without any government subsidies
“Such that you know, I think green ammonia, you know, today is quite profitable without any subsidies at all even at today's cost of hydrogen, right?”
Shah: Non-lithium battery chemistries will reach commercial scale within five years
“I think we're actually five years away from all of those technologies being available at scale to the marketplace.”
House: Nickel prices will drop below $30 per kilogram by April 2024
“These prices will not, I would bet against nickels being at 30 dollars a kilogram two years from now, because two years ago it was less than 20, and there were plenty of good opportunities, good projects out there, new projects that would work at 20.”
Bataille: Over 90% of captured CO2 must be permanently stored, not utilized
“The numbers I typically see is we will utilize less than 10% of it. Most of it has to go into deep storage, be it depleted oil and gas reservoirs with tight overseal, or into deep saline aquifers. Like, the vast majority has to go into permanent storage withou…”
Bataille: Permian methane leak rates make natural gas as dirty as coal
“In places like the Permian where, you know, the number is seven percent, then eight percent, then nine percent, those are tragically high fugitive, fugitive, fugitive levels. You might as well be doing coal.”
Jenkins: Gazprom kept its European gas storage assets exceptionally low pre-invasion
“Gazprom, the Russian gas company, owns a lot of storage assets for natural gas in Europe, and if you look at the storage volumes for Gazprom-owned storage assets in Europe, they were much lower than the average for other assets at the time, so it's almost as i…”
Schroeder: EVs have fewer fires per vehicle than ICE cars
“There are still a lot fewer of them on a per EV basis than there are internal combustion engine vehicle fires on a per ICE basis.”
Schroeder: Flow batteries match lithium-ion costs at 8 to 10 hours
“And usually you get something that looks like lithium ion cost when you're getting around eight to 10 hours.”
Shah: All 15 US carbon black plants face EPA consent decrees
“And there's 15 major plants in the United States. All of them are under EPA, Department of Justice consent decrees. As of 2013, none of them had had Sox and Nox scrubbers on them, so the people who lived in those communities nearby were breathing in some of th…”
Hsu predicts someone will achieve fusion scientific breakeven during the 2020s
“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”
Rutherford: Crop-based aviation biofuels can emit more lifecycle CO2 than fossil fuel
“You can actually produce sustainable aviation fuels that on a life cycle basis emit more carbon dioxide than the base jet fuel.”
Rutherford: Electric aviation is limited to flights of 300 kilometers or less
“But by our analysis, you know, it's really a market for commuter flights, and for flights of, you know, 300 kilometers or less for the foreseeable future, just because of the underlying mass penalties of the technology.”
Wang: Electrochemical aluminum conversion outperforms combustion efficiency without NOx emissions
“You can really design electrochemical systems that are incredibly cost-effective and capable, and ultimately able to convert that energy from its raw thermodynamic form in aluminum out to electricity with far higher efficiency than combustion, without any of t…”
Wang: Aluminum fuel is twice as energy-dense by volume as diesel
“In fact, is from a volume basis, about twice as energy dense as diesel on an as-converted basis. So come at the amount of electricity you're getting out per, you know, liter per gallon of fuel. And then even on a weight basis, you are a little bit better than …”
Wang: Voya achieves 100 MW per acre, quadrupling diesel density
“Per in terms of megawatts per acre, the power density, how much power you can pack in per acre, we are approximately a hundred megawatts per acre in our high density configuration, which is about four times higher than a diesel generator installation”
Wong: Transmission interconnection studies take 6-9 months and cost $250K
“I think most utilities are talking about six to nine months to perform one of those studies, and it's a one-time, right, so risk of restudies will compound that, and it does cost internal utility, typically a hundred, A couple of 100,000 dollars. The typical b…”
Tillis claims Biden's Keystone XL cancellation destroyed two billion dollars of capital
“I mean, where were you when Biden absolutely destroyed XL pipeline and two billion dollars of capital came out of the ground as a result of that?”
Hade: Utility scale is 90% of US battery growth and C&I is virtually zero
“Of that, you know, roughly 40 gigawatts of storage that's been added to the grid over the last five years something like 90% of it is utility scale, and 10% is residential, and if you add 90 and 10, that gets to a hundred, which means that basically nothing is…”
Hade: PJM capacity prices have increased 11x over 36 months
“The way to think about this in PJM, right, is capacity prices have gone up 11 X in the last 36 months.”
Hade: Battery storage hardware costs dropped 30% to 40% over 18 months
“So at the pack level over the last 18 months, battery costs are down like 40%, depending on sort of what analysis you look at. And at the system level, maybe like 30% is the right way to think about it. So the cost of, you know, an actual system that you deplo…”
Letendre: Most new electric school buses are bidirectional capable
“Most all of the school bus electric school buses that are coming off the lines are bi-directional capable, and there are now several higher power DC bi-directional chargers that are compatible with those school buses.”
Letendre: 10 kW bidirectional EV charger can earn $3,000 annually via grid services
“In some jurisdictions where, ah, utilities are compensating, ah, resources for providing peak shaving in the 200 to 300 kW, ah, per season, ah, range. You know, for a 10 k, kW bidirectional charging system, you could potentially earn, you know, 3000 dollars pe…”
Quantum roadmaps target million-qubit systems within three to five years
“So right now the holy grail, if you will, of quantum is say a million physical qubits to implement perhaps thousands of logical qubits. And that's where you start to get real science and real applications. And if you look at all the company roadmaps, that is t…”
Rolls-Royce found quantum fluid dynamics outperformed theoretical predictions
“Rolls-Royce, who makes very good jet engines, are starting to examine what they can do for their computational fluid dynamics programs, what quantum can bring to the table. It was interesting. They got some cool results, but what I really liked about their exp…”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Bloom fuel cells take two days to reach full capacity
“Because Blue Energy fuel cells, you know, they have to run extremely hot. And so if you want to use them as backup this basically takes two days, you know, to go from like zero to a hundred.”
Yedvab: Stardust particles match sulfate cooling effectiveness within tens of percent
“Our article, to be very, very straightforward, is not much better than sulfate with respect to the effectiveness and not much worse than sulfate.
So up to, I'd say,
A few tens of percents, which is not a, it's kind of similar.”
Lubershane: 2025 EV power demand growth matched data center growth globally
“The IEA recently came out with some data recently on global electricity demand growth, and it turns out that last year in 2025 from about, from a global standpoint, there was almost exactly as much electricity demand growth around the world from electric vehic…”
Lubershane: A home humanoid robot will use 3-4x a refrigerator's annual power
“If you were to sort of extrapolate from the humanoids that are being built today and you were to run one for five or six hours a day doing various types of tasks around your home and your garden, sort of, you know, the theoretical robo-butler, that would consu…”
Chinese EVs cost 30 to 40 percent less than Western competitors
“In terms of comparison to Europe and the United States, they're 30 to 40% less expensive.”
Volkswagen will close plants and lay off 50,000 workers by 2030
“Volkswagen's come out and said between now and 2030, they'll lay off 50,000 people. This is unprecedented. They're closing plants for the first time since World War II.”
Fulgham: Solar scaled from 100 TWh to 2,000 TWh faster than any energy source
“How long does it take for sources to go from a hundred terawatt hours to a size like 2000 terawatt hours? And if you look historically, no source has ever made that jump as quickly as solar has. Right behind it is wind with just a few more years.”
Fulgham: Global fossil generation fell in 2025 for fifth time this century
“And that meant that for only the fifth time in this century, and for the first time since twenty-twenty, we actually saw a small fall in fossil generation, particularly a fall from coal generation, which was both in India and China we had those falls.”
Kann: China's fossil fuel electricity generation has stayed flat for years
“Fossil generation in China has been flat now for a couple of years. It's not just a one-year anomaly. It basically flattened off and has stayed that way.”
Fulgham: China mandates coal plants throttle down midday for solar
“China is actively reducing the lowest level that coal plants can run out. Now, this is not just a policy choice. It's also a technical requirement. So it means they want Coal plants to be able to throttle down in the middle of the day further than they had to …”
Fulgham: India's per-capita renewables generation is 5x China's 15-year-old baseline
“Wind and solar generation per capita India's has now is already five times higher than China's was 15 years ago, and obviously that's only going to continue to grow.”
Fulgham: 2025 battery additions can shift 14% of new solar output
“We also have 250 gigawatt hours of additional battery capacity. And you put those two together, and it means that 14% of all the solar generation, the additional solar generation we had globally, can be shifted to different parts of the day.”
Von Munch: Pacific Fusion CTO doubled pulsed-power system efficiency and density
“And our CTO inventing technology that more than doubles the efficiency and power density of systems like Z.”
Linville: North America is self-sufficient across major fertilizers except urea
“We are self-sufficient on potash. From a Canadian standpoint, they are the biggest producer and exporter in the world. We are mostly self-sufficient on phosphate as the spring season has shown. UAN and anhydrous, both nitrogen products, we produce almost all t…”
Data centers drive 94% of PJM load growth, 17% of US power
“The latest numbers show that in January of this year, NERC forecasts a summer peak increase of 224 gigawatts, almost all of which will come from data centers. Data centers now account for 94% of PJM's projected peak load growth, and by 20:30 EPRI forecast that…”
Sivaram: Over 100GW of stranded grid capacity could power flexible data centers
“The grid is utilized at roughly 50% or less during most of the year, and therefore, we have all of this hundred plus gigawatts of stranded power capacity that could power AI factories connecting to the grid today if during those rare peak moments AI factories …”
Sivaram: Study shows AI workloads offer 18% to 55% power flexibility
“There's a March, 20, 26 paper that was published actually by Emerald's chief scientist, Professor Aisha Koskun at Boston University with Two others, both at BU and at Emerald AI, that shows a 18 to 55% power flexibility opportunity across a range of different …”
Emerald AI and Oracle migrated live inference queries to avoid winter peak
“So with Oracle, we showcased migrating AI workloads from one location, Virginia, to another, Chicago. And this was during the data winter, the Dominion winter peak period, the inference queries got rerouted in such a way that you were able to precisely meet th…”
Johnson: Tax equity market reached $36B in 2025 via hybrid transactions
“So the tax equity market grew from about twenty billion in 2022 to about thirty six billion this past year, which is a really material growth with most of it coming from hybrid transactions that allow for the subsequent sale of the tax credit.”
McAvoy: Data centers are funding off-site batteries to speed up grid interconnection
“We are seeing data centers like, you know, and even retail Energy providers who are coming to a utility hand in hand and saying, look, we want to put a data center here. I'm the retail energy provider. I'm going to provide this data center with energy. I neede…”