solar

47 statements across 29 episodes · 25 bullish · 8 bearish · 25 people on the record · first statement Dec 9, 2021 by Andy Lubershane · across every show →

Everything said about solar, oldest first

Dec 9, 2021 bullish
Assertion Supported
Lubershain: Solar makes clean electricity the world's cheapest non-firm power
“And, you know, in fact, the falling cost of solar has made electricity and clean electricity, you know, the cheapest levelized non-firm energy cost in the world”
Andy Lubershane Dec 9, 2021 ▶ 14:36 The future of natural gas
Jan 31, 2022 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Powell: Rooftop solar is the gateway to heat pump and EV adoption
“Solar so much is the gateway to so much more electrification. So what we find is customers that go solar, they do tend to be the first adopters of heat pumps. They then do tend to be the first adopters of electric vehicles, and so they really, so one of the re…”
Mary Powell Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 41:04 The future of the home solar market
Mar 17, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schroeder: EV batteries will not solve extended renewable generation lulls
“I don't think that solves long periods of no wind, no solar, but it certainly has to help for lots of things.”
Dave Schroeder Mar 17, 2022 ▶ 52:56 When will batteries take over the world?
May 12, 2022 bullish
Assertion Supported
Kann: Solar and wind produce cheapest bids in most open utility RFPs
“Solar is cheap enough now that in most places, Solar and wind, I should say. Most places it is true today that if a utility or somebody issues an open RFP and just says, I want the cheapest power I can get, like, give me the cheapest kilowatt hours, the respon…”
Shayle Kann May 12, 2022 ▶ 8:11 Shayle’s “ask me anything” episode
May 12, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Land availability will become a major bottleneck for decarbonization
“Land, I think, will become a big one. Kind of no matter how you slice it in terms of what the big swaths of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation Solutions are going to be. They're going to be pretty land intensive. Solar and wind obviously are very land intensi…”
Shayle Kann May 12, 2022 ▶ 9:51 Shayle’s “ask me anything” episode
May 12, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: Soft costs are largest remaining area for US solar cost reductions
“In the US, soft costs remain the biggest area to run downward.”
Shayle Kann May 12, 2022 ▶ 7:10 Shayle’s “ask me anything” episode
May 12, 2022 positive
Insight
Kann: Modular manufacturability drives steep clean-tech learning curves
“I'm probably not the world's greatest expert on this question, but I think the fundamental thing that drives these learning curves is sort of manufacturability. Like, can you scale up manufacturing of the thing at, by number, not just by scale? So in the conte…”
Shayle Kann May 12, 2022 ▶ 32:12 Shayle’s “ask me anything” episode
Sep 9, 2022 bullish
Assertion Supported
Beard: Geothermal has a tiny footprint and avoids massive mineral mining
“Geothermal has a Tiny footprint compared to other renewables. It doesn't rely on a massive amount of rare earth mining like you know, like, for instance, wind and solar production and storage production.”
Jamie Beard Sep 9, 2022 ▶ 23:32 Could geothermal become a major zero-emissions player?
Oct 27, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steele: Solar is cheaper and logistically easier than diesel in off-grid cases
“So for off-grid, the lower-cost solution actually is solar, and the logistically easier solution is solar, and in almost all cases.”
Kate Steele Oct 27, 2022 ▶ 14:13 Climatetech for developing economies
Dec 1, 2022
Assertion Supported
Jenny Chase: Global solar capacity recently surpassed one terawatt
“We just went over a terawatt.”
Jenny Chase Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 41:18 Unpopular solar opinions, 2022 edition
Dec 1, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Solar will be the primary technology driving global decarbonization
“I continue to fundamentally believe that solar is going to be the bedrock of decarbonization. Put another way, if you ask me what single technology will do the most to mitigate climate change, short of some potential geoengineering or nuclear fusion future, my…”
Shayle Kann Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 3:18 Unpopular solar opinions, 2022 edition
Dec 1, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Jenny Chase: Solar will be built for green hydrogen production by 2030
“And that's even before you start thinking about, are we going to build solar to make hydrogen? And I suspect that by 2030 we are, just because we've got no idea how else to manage the problems of intermittency and how to decarbonize steel and fertilizer.”
Jenny Chase Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 43:15 Unpopular solar opinions, 2022 edition
Dec 1, 2022
Insight
Jenny Chase: Actual solar deployment consistently exceeds forecaster expectations
“But the history of solar shows that it, there's always more solar than you think there will be.”
Jenny Chase Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 43:37 Unpopular solar opinions, 2022 edition
Dec 1, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jenny Chase: Europe has abundant brownfield and marginal land for solar
“Europe, it's really a mixture, because we have plenty of land in Europe that First of all, used to be used for industry and isn't anymore, or is used for agriculture, but not particularly productively.”
Jenny Chase Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 39:32 Unpopular solar opinions, 2022 edition
Jun 22, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
BNEF: Economic build models overestimate U.S. solar by 10-20 GW annually
“If in a world in which you just dispatch whatever's cheapest, you know, the solar numbers would be, you know, 10 to 20 gigabyte 10 to 20 gigawatts higher per year of stuff that the, that our model sort of spits out. And that's where human beings have to get in…”
Ethan Zindler Jun 22, 2023 ▶ 12:31 Building out a U.S. solar supply chain
Jun 22, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Kann: US solar installations will top 100 GW annually by 2030
“We'll do maybe 30 to 35 gigawatts of solar total this year, and according to the repeat project, we may hit almost 50 gigawatts by twenty-twenty-five or twenty-twenty-six. By the end of the decade, we'll be doing over a hundred gigawatts a year, potentially we…”
Shayle Kann Jun 22, 2023 ▶ 2:46 Building out a U.S. solar supply chain
Aug 31, 2023 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yeagerson: Strongest V2G demand pairs with on-site solar and home storage
“One of the things that we're seeing is that the places where there's a strongest interest for V to G, you're already going through a process where maybe you're adding some additional storage at the building and oftentimes being paired with solar, which really …”
Ty Yeagerson Aug 31, 2023 ▶ 28:50 Can the V2X dream become reality?
Oct 12, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Houser: Solar, storage, and EV sales are growing 15% to 40% annually
“Solar and storage, mostly, and then EV sales, and they're, you know, both are growing at like, you know, 15 to 40% a year, so really rapid growth, not the kind of triple-digit growth that we're seeing in manufacturing or in some of the emerging climate tech bu…”
Trevor Houser Oct 12, 2023 ▶ 22:34 How is U.S. industrial policy affecting actual climatetech investment?
Oct 12, 2023 bullish
Assertion Supported
Houser: 93% of recent US clean manufacturing investment is in EVs
“If you look at the past two years combined of actual investment, 93% is in the EV value chain. So that's critical minerals, batteries EV assembly and charging equipment. so that's a 92%. The vast majority of the remainder is solar, and then there's a tiny am…”
Trevor Houser Oct 12, 2023 ▶ 17:00 How is U.S. industrial policy affecting actual climatetech investment?
Oct 26, 2023
Assertion Supported
Hade: Four components comprise most microgrids deployed today
“Solar storage, switchgear, and dispatchable generation assets, and some combination of those come together to, you know, create most microgrids that are being deployed in the market today.”
Tim Hade Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 10:48 The market for microgrids
Nov 9, 2023 neutral
Insight
Kann: Cost of delivered electricity matters more for solar than panel prices
“What matters at the end of the day for solar is not the cost of the panel. It's the cost of delivered electricity.”
Shayle Kann Nov 9, 2023 ▶ 13:42 Mailbag episode! Interest rates, carbon dioxide removal, load growth, and more
Dec 14, 2023 bullish
Insight
Jaramillo: Multi-day storage halves the land footprint needed for solar buildout
“By having cost-effective multi-day storage, you can incorporate More renewable energy without sacrificing reliability at basically half, half the land cost, and that, by that I mean you only have to put solar on half as many acres to get the same benefit and t…”
Mateo Jaramillo Dec 14, 2023 ▶ 32:40 What do you do with a 100-hour battery?
Feb 8, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Bullard: China's 2023 solar additions topped all global historical totals except 2022
“If you were to take just China's installations last year, which is north of 200 gigawatts, in and of itself, it would have been the biggest year in any other year besides twenty-twenty-two.”
Nat Bullard Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 8:28 2024 trends: batteries, transferable tax credits, and the cost of capital
Feb 8, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Kann: Global solar installations jumped from 252 GW to 440 GW
“Like, we went from 252 gigawatts in 2022 to four 40 in 2023.”
Shayle Kann Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 8:05 2024 trends: batteries, transferable tax credits, and the cost of capital
Feb 20, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alfred Johnson: Tax credit buyers prefer familiar technologies like wind and solar
“And though we're seeing some convergence, there is, we are seeing some sign that buyers are more comfortable with the existing technologies that That they have seen in the past, like wind and solar, than they may be with some of the new technology types”
Alfred Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 24:06 Frontier Forum: Diving into the booming transferable tax credit market
May 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Large warehouses have 200 TWh of cost-effective solar potential
“And when you look at, particularly for commercial distribution circuits you're talking about something on the order of 200 terawatt hours, right? Of cost-effective solar that can be put on warehouses that are four acres or larger in size, right?”
Jigar Shah May 23, 2024 ▶ 20:25 Could VPPs save rooftop solar?
May 28, 2024 neutral
Insight
Faruqi: Net grid load impact of DERs remains uncertain
“Some of them will raise load growth, EVs and heat pumps certainly being those two. But then there are other DERs which will lower load growth, like energy efficiency, demand response, and certainly solar. So what will be the net effect of those is anybody's gu…”
Ahmad Faruqi May 28, 2024 ▶ 9:18 With Great Power: Why dynamic rates are gaining momentum
Jun 13, 2024 negative
Opinion
Janus: Powering Gigawatt-Scale Data Centers with Solar and Storage Is Not Feasible
“You're not going to put solar in storage to supply a 500 to gigawatt, 500 megawatt to gigawatt scale data center. I mean, it's just not feasible.”
Brian Janous Jun 13, 2024 ▶ 28:15 Under the hood of data center power demand
Sep 12, 2024 negative
Insight
Lubershane: Energy storage startups underestimated lithium-ion cost declines from manufacturing scale
“I've, you know, watched and talked to dozens of companies and founders, and I think Oftentimes making the same mistake as they were trying to commercialize some kind of better mousetrap for energy storage, which is they underestimated the pace at which the cos…”
Andy Lubershane Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 10:25 The better mousetrap fallacy
Jan 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lafarge: PJM accredits gas plants at 80% capacity versus 8% for solar
“A gas plant in PGM is close to 80% accredited load, and solar with no storage is eight percent.”
Pierre Lafarge Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 27:28 Making DERs work for load growth
Jan 16, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fernandez: FOAK climate projects cannot access traditional project-level debt
“As far as debt goes, we haven't seen it. We've seen people be able to raise debt at the corporate level via, via venture debt or via corporate debt. Now, those are very low leverage numbers, right? They're not the 80, 95% that, you know, you will get in solar.”
Mario Fernandez Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 44:03 FOAK tales
Feb 6, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Bullard: 599 GW of solar was installed globally in 2024
“A modest, 599 gigawatts of solar installed last year globally.”
Nat Bullard Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 3:42 More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment
Feb 6, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bullard: ERCOT cumulative solar will probably overtake wind in 2025
“You know this year, we're probably gonna have more solar installed in toto, cumulative, than wind.”
Nat Bullard Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 6:56 More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment
Feb 6, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Bullard: US energy storage investment now surpasses wind investment
“Solar is just on its way up. You know, it's more than forty billion dollars in the trail in 12 months. And storage now invests more than wind does in the States.”
Nat Bullard Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 5:10 More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment
Jul 17, 2025
Assertion Supported
Lubershain: Unsubsidized wind and solar costs rise to $40-$45/MWh
“If you have solar wind at 25 dollars a megawatt hour today, which is feasible, those are good wind and solar projects, but maybe not even the best And you take that, that's with the ITC or PTC in the case of wind, and you take away that subsidy, you probably g…”
Andy Lubershane Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 25:57 Five big questions emerging from the OBBB
Jul 17, 2025
Assertion Supported
Lubershain: Subsidized renewables at $25/MWh beat marginal natural gas costs
“At 25 dollars a megawatt hour, you are less than the marginal cost of natural gas generation. So you can build those wind and solar resources solely at, and you'll make money solely off the avoided cost of burning gas at existing natural gas power plants. Wher…”
Andy Lubershane Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 26:34 Five big questions emerging from the OBBB
Jul 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lubershain: Solar will likely stay cheaper on LCOE than subsidized geothermal
“And in those regions, like probably solar is still cheaper on a levelized cost of energy basis than geothermal, even subsidized even when geothermal is subsidized and solar is not for quite some time, but you don't add geothermal because you're competing with,…”
Andy Lubershane Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 30:47 Five big questions emerging from the OBBB
Jul 31, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Piper: PJM accredits 100MW of solar as just 8 to 10MW
“If you bring a hundred megawatts of gas generation, we count that as about 70 megawatts of reserve contribution. If you bring a hundred megawatts of solar, we may count that as eight to 10 megawatts of reserve contribution. You know, very, very conservative, m…”
Steve Piper Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 25:25 PJM and the capacity crunch
Oct 6, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Neill: Regulatory red tape prevents deployment of ready low-cost clean energy
“Talking with our member companies who have low-cost resources that they're ready to build, You know, whether it's large-scale wind, solar, storage, and the like, and they're not able to deploy, right? They are tangled in red tape, they are stuck in line”
Heather O'Neill Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 11:27 Frontier Forum: A new playbook for clean energy growth
Nov 13, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Garabedian: China's low-cost solar manufacturing playbook will fail in hydrogen
“So long story short I don't think the same game that worked in solar works in green hydrogen.”
Rafi Garabedian Nov 13, 2025 ▶ 27:31 Driving down the cost of green hydrogen
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Moskowitz: US-made solar remains cost-competitive with other energy sources on LCOE
“Even when a product is made in the United States, and in solar, solar specifically, It is still cost competitive with other forms of technology. You look at Lazard's LCOE models and those cost charts, solar is always going to be right on the bottom, and that i…”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 13:08 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 30, 2026 negative
Opinion
McAvoy: Solar and storage alone cannot fully power data centers
“They're not the answer. They are supplemental energy that can help, and they're kind of filling a gap until, you know, more jet generation comes online, and depends on what form of that jet generation can be.”
Sean McAvoy Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 21:05 Battery booms and the rise of flexibility [partner content]
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Solar scaled from 100 TWh to 2,000 TWh faster than any energy source
“How long does it take for sources to go from a hundred terawatt hours to a size like 2000 terawatt hours? And if you look historically, no source has ever made that jump as quickly as solar has. Right behind it is wind with just a few more years.”
Nick Fulgham Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 8:11 Surprising trends in global electricity generation
Jun 4, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Fulgham: Solar relative growth may slow in 2026 despite record absolute gains
“My gut feeling now is that maybe 2026 is the year where that relative growth rate will step down a little bit, and we'll see slower relative growth, even though we might still again get a record absolute increase.”
Nick Fulgham Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 7:30 Surprising trends in global electricity generation
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Batteries must grow 2x-3x faster than solar to reach equilibrium
“The implication to me is that batteries should be growing at roughly two to three times the rate that solar should to play catch up here. And so we have this, you know, we started off with this, like, very bullish solars meeting the vast majority of new, like,…”
Shayle Kann Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 36:03 Surprising trends in global electricity generation
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Global solar generation increased by 636 TWh (30%) in 2025
“Solar has really had a standout year in 2025 increased by 636 terabyte hours. So that's twice the size of the UK's annual electricity demand. Huge amount of additional electricity globally that's coming from solar. And the really interesting trend that we foun…”
Nick Fulgham Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 4:22 Surprising trends in global electricity generation
Jun 4, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Solar generation averaged 27% annual growth over past decade
“We've now had over the last 10 years, the average was 27%.”
Nick Fulgham Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 7:09 Surprising trends in global electricity generation
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