The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Fisher (2020): At 5% interest rates, every real estate investor goes bankrupt
“No, not a chance. They go to five to six percent. Every real estate investor that we know is bankrupt. They're not hanging on. They're broke and dead. And every home builder in America has no customers. That's a fact.”
Geremia: ESG will cease to be an investment term within three years
“The most exciting to me is that ESG will go away. It will not be an investment term in three years, and it has nothing to do with it not being super important.”
Dixon: Web3 payouts will pass Web2 payouts in next couple years
“I believe we'll see in the next couple of years, web three payouts past web two payouts.”
Sternlicht: Amazon subsidizes $4B-$5B retail losses with AWS to destroy small retailers
“It's fundamentally destroying mom and dad retail across the country, and it's one of my pet peeves because they were allowed to sell product retail-wise for less than the cost of, they're losing four or five billion a year in retail, which they subsidize with …”
Ford: San Francisco lost 100,000 residents due to progressive policies
“I'll probably get in trouble for this, but San Francisco has moved so far to the progressive end. They've lost a 100,000 residents out of 900,000 people.”
Grantham: Every Two-Sigma Asset Bubble Historically Reverted to Pre-Bubble Trends
“In major countries, there was no exception to the principle that an overpriced market at two sigma, which is just a statistical measure. If you look at the price, you look at the breakout on the upside. If it's two sigma, there is no exception to the rule that…”
Executive Hires Placed by VCs Have an Average Tenure Under 18 Months
“You look at the data of executive hires placed by a venture firm. Either an investor said, like, oh, you got to hire this guy. He's going to come in and totally change your go-to-market. This guy's going to blow revenue out of the water. Or it's through a tale…”
Gave: Private Equity and Credit Report 50% Gains Amid Flat Broader Markets
“Over that same three-year period, against loans and equity markets that are flat to down, the private equity and the private credit managers are nominally up 50%.”
Miller: 80% of Republicans Under 35 Prioritize Climate as Top-Five Policy Issue
“Currently, Republicans under the age of 35, 80% of them say climate should be in our top five list of policy issues.”
Morehead: Venture capital industry in total has never lost money over 10-year period
“The industry in total over a 10 year period, I don't think has ever lost money. I'm not sure if I'm a hundred percent correct on it, but as close.”
Dixon: No top App Store apps were created in the last decade
“Go look at the top apps in the app store. And none of those services were created in the last 10 years.”
Sandler: Judge assessed market damage from Michael Milken's violations at zero
“Interesting enough, when the judge assessed the economic damage to the marketplace from everything Michael pled to, included on the three counts that related to Bosque, that the total economic effect of these violations was zero. Not one penny was lost.”
Sandler: Milken's sentencing judge told parole commission no further wrongdoing was proven
“The judge who sentenced Mike, who held the Fatico hearing, wrote a letter to the parole commission on Mike's behalf, indicating that she held the Fatico hearing, and she did not believe that any further wrongdoing other than what he pled to could be shown, eve…”
Sacca: GPT-5 will train in 2023 and be 6-8x better than GPT-4
“GPT five will be trained this year, and it'll be six to eight times better than four, maybe, maybe more.”
Rodman: There Has Never Been a Stored Nuclear Waste Accident in History
“There has never been an accident with nuclear waste in the history.”
Thomas: Black business owners average one-seventh the equity of white peers
“African American business owners have on average about one seventh of the equity in their businesses of their white male counterparts.”
Marshall: Scope 1–3 emissions compliance costs are projected to exceed Sarbanes-Oxley
“It's going to be complicated, and the estimated cost of compliance for scope one, scope two, and scope three is expected to exceed Sarbanes-Oxley.”
Gave: First Fed tightening cycle where EM bonds outperform US Treasuries
“This is the first Fed tightening cycle in my lifetime where emerging market bonds are crushing U.S. Treasuries, German bonds, JGBs.”
Citrone: US Core Inflation Has Peaked but Won't Fall Fast Enough
“I actually think inflation is rolling over. It's just going to take longer to come down to the acceptable levels, but it's rolling over. It's peaked in our view. The real risk on the headline is energy prices and maybe food prices. I mean, maybe headline can g…”
Lenehan: China will very shortly become the world's largest economy
“But from our perspective, we actually think that China's going to be the largest economy very shortly. It will grow. It'll continue to grow. At a rate higher than any other developed country kind of post COVID.”
Papic: There is basically no way the US will not get an Iran deal
“There's basically no way that we will not get an Iran deal.”
Jain: Helium will have more access points than any telecom by 2022
“We are expecting The Helium network to really be the biggest wireless network in the world by the end of next year, have more access points than any other centralized telecom provider by the end of next year, and have potentially even more users.”
Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026
“And the upcoming next five years, it's one thing to have lower for longer yields. It's another thing to have lower for longer yields when some people's benchmarks, meaning inflation or the cost of living are way above those yields. And that's the change that I…”
Rieder projects that the US economy will achieve 8% GDP in 2021
“I think the economy is going to grow. I mean, I think we're going to have an eight percent GDP this year.”
Ford predicts post-pandemic US inflation will dissipate within a year
“I think it's going to be natural to have some level of inflation here for a period of quarters. If it was a normal, gradual, cyclical recovery, or recovery coming out of a financial crisis like what you have all experienced, I think it's very, very different f…”
Paul: The NFT Space Will Probably Grow 100x By 2024
“So I think over the next three years, we're going to see the NFT space grow probably a hundred X in size.”
Sonnenshein: Bitcoin mining is predominantly powered by renewable energy sources
“Bitcoin mining and the fact that it's more often than not done with renewable energy sources, and that's another big misconception that's out there.”
Aitken: UK and EU Will Have Framework Trade Deal by Summer 2020
“I think there's a good chance that we have the bare bones of a deal, if you will, about the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
I think we have the bare bones of a deal by the summer.”
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
O'Shaughnessy: OSAM has almost zero portfolio overlap with AQR and LSV
“Our overlaps with other quants are shockingly low. Like we have this little cool program that we can show people this on the fly and they won't believe us. Like they'll ask about AQR and LSV and these other great managers, you know, really, really, really stro…”
Friedman estimates Opportunity Zones will increase US GDP by 0.4%
“We estimate it'll increase GDP by four-tenths of percent.”
Federal Reserve Terminal Rate Will Hit at Least 300 Basis Points
“So Fed funds doesn't get to 525 basis points like it did in O six. It gets to something like, oh, let's say, 300, which I think would surprise some people if we got there, but that's where I think it's the minimum.”
Cembalest: US municipal restructurings will rise continuously without federal intervention
“But absent intervention from the Fed or the Treasury, which I have a 95% confidence won't happen, we're gonna have Can you continuously rising stream of restructurings at the municipal level over the next few years?”
Bondholders lose more than pensioners in every US municipal restructuring to date
“And in the seven or eight restructurings that have happened so far at the municipal level, that's exactly what's happened. Every time there's been a pensioner and retiree healthcare write down, the bondholders lost more as a percentage of par.”
U.S. entitlement to discretionary spending ratio will hit 5:1 within a decade
“Because in 1970, the country spent the same amount on entitlement spending As it did on all of the rest of the non-entitlement discretionary spending. And so that one to one ratio became one and a half to one, then two to one. And now it's three to one, and it…”
Malpass estimates that 80% to 90% of unicorn startups fail
“You know, I think the data shows that 80 plus percent, maybe 90% of unicorns don't make it, so I don't get too high and fired up.”
Solomon: Passive investors drastically underperform active managers on a dollar-weighted basis
“And so when you look at, if you just do a an adjustment for the performance and passive product, just take the S and P and look at when people entered and exited as a proxy, or look at volumes as a proxy for when people entered and exited, they actually haven'…”
O'Connor: Regal is the largest private owner of Australian water rights
“One of the adjacencies to that is we're the largest owner of water rights outside the Commonwealth Government in Australia.”
Kleinman: Apollo was first to house private credit and PE together
“We were the first folks to come out of the GFC saying, well, we should have private credit business and a private equity business under the same roof.”
Lyon: Top 10 PE firms raise two-thirds of all asset class capital
“The vast majority of capital being raised in private equity, I think the number is two-thirds, is the top 10 firms.”
Wagner: Over 90% of the Japanese stock market is passively managed
“I'd never been able to exactly quantify this number. I think over 90% of the market is passively managed. There's very, very few fundamental bottoms up investors in Japan.”
Sullivan: Buyout firms relying on SBA leverage generally perform poorly
“One thing I never liked was we would have buyout firms come to us and talk about Oh, we're going to get all this leverage from the Small Business Administration. That's going to allow us to goose the returns and do all this clever stuff. To me, that was always…”
CAA disrupted Hollywood by proactively packaging talent rather than waiting
“We weren't going to wait for offers. We were going to aggressively try to put things together and package which hadn't been done, and we'd never let anything go out that wasn't surrounded with like-minded creative people.”
MacArthur: Zero buyout funds larger than $5B closed globally in Q1 2025
“There was no fund in the buyout world in the first quarter that closed that was above five billion dollars, which is the first time I can remember that happening in quite a period of time.”