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Assertion Contradicted AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

MacArthur: Zero buyout funds larger than $5B closed globally in Q1 2025

Hugh MacArthur · Hugh MacArthur – Private Equity's Challenges and Opportunities (EP.453) · Jun 23, 2025 · at 39:57

Hugh MacArthur of Bain & Company describes the sharp fundraising slowdown across the global buyout market in early 2025.

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“There was no fund in the buyout world in the first quarter that closed that was above five billion dollars, which is the first time I can remember that happening in quite a period of time.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Hugh MacArthur

Prediction Not checkable as stated
MacArthur: The private equity liquidity deficit will take 5+ years to resolve
“So we're talking about a five plus year problem as the GFC was in order to process all of this liquidity. This is not going to go away in 20, 25 or 20, 26. It's going to be continued pressure on the institutional LPs for liquidity over the course of the next s…”
Hugh MacArthur Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 41:02 Hugh MacArthur – Private Equity's Challenges and Opportunities (EP.453)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
MacArthur: Institutional PE allocations will increasingly become a zero-sum game
“They're going to continue to write checks and invest in private equity, but it's going to be much more of a zero sum game. If I'm going to get an allocation from a certain LP, somebody else is probably going to lose their allocation from that LP.”
Hugh MacArthur Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 59:17 Hugh MacArthur – Private Equity's Challenges and Opportunities (EP.453)
Assertion Supported
MacArthur: Co-investments now account for 30% to 40% of all PE capital
“Now, co-investment is about 30 to 40 cents of every dollar that's invested in the industry.”
Hugh MacArthur Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 35:03 Hugh MacArthur – Private Equity's Challenges and Opportunities (EP.453)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
MacArthur: Co-investments drove a 50% drop in fee revenue for some GPs
“Depending upon the GP, there are some GPs whose Dollar of fees per dollar of AUM have gone down by 50% over the last decade because of co-invest.”
Hugh MacArthur Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 35:08 Hugh MacArthur – Private Equity's Challenges and Opportunities (EP.453)
Assertion Supported
MacArthur: Private equity distributions to LPs fell to 11% of NAV in 2024
“Last year, the distribution to the private equity LPs as a percentage of their net asset value was 11%.”
Hugh MacArthur Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 38:15 Hugh MacArthur – Private Equity's Challenges and Opportunities (EP.453)
Assertion Partly supported
MacArthur: Global buyout portfolios hold 30,000 companies worth $3.6 trillion
“There are about 30,000 companies right now that are being held globally in buyout portfolios worth about 3.6 trillion dollars, and about half of those companies have been held for at least five years.”
Hugh MacArthur Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 40:26 Hugh MacArthur – Private Equity's Challenges and Opportunities (EP.453)
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