inflation

37 statements across 29 episodes · 14 bullish · 14 bearish · 26 people on the record · first statement Aug 14, 2017 by Richard Lawrence · across every show →

Everything said about inflation, oldest first

Aug 14, 2017 positive
Insight
Corporate pricing power is as valuable in deflationary environments as inflationary ones
“Pricing power is as good, In a deflationary environment as is an inflationary environment.”
Richard Lawrence Aug 14, 2017 ▶ 37:50 Richard Lawrence – Compounding in Asia (Capital Allocators, EP.21)
Jan 29, 2018 neutral
Insight
Major inflationary episodes occur a generation apart as institutional memory fades
“If you look at inflationary episodes, they tend to occur about a generation apart. And I don't think that's a coincidence. I think that inflation is such a huge systemic problem when it happens, and so devastating to both the financial system and also the poli…”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 52:21 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Jan 29, 2018 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masters: The next inflation surprise will throw markets completely haywire
“And so when we do have the next inflationary surprise, It's going to throw all of this completely haywire and it's going to be underpriced in the market as well.”
Seth Masters Jan 29, 2018 ▶ 51:09 Seth Masters – Investment Polymath (Capital Allocators, EP.38)
Sep 24, 2018 negative
Insight
Arndt: Populist Politics Detracts From Economic Growth and Drives Inflation
“And then we're also looking at things like geopolitics trade disputes and things like that, which populist politics in general is usually detractive from economic growth and inflationary.”
Raphael Arndt Sep 24, 2018 ▶ 22:44 Raphael Arndt – Australia's Sovereign Wealth Fund CIO (Capital Allocators, Episode 70)
Oct 7, 2019 neutral
Insight
Tepper: Inflation lags the economic cycle due to delayed corporate pricing and wage cycles
“On the inflation side, because inflation is so lagging, so if you think of supermarkets don't immediately start raising prices until they're sure the demand is there, they don't start cutting prices until they're sure that it's dropping off, and then wage cycl…”
Jonathan Tepper Oct 7, 2019 ▶ 13:31 Jonathan Tepper - Variant Perception of Capitalism (Capital Allocators, EP.110)
Oct 14, 2019 bullish
Insight
Girotto: High inflation with high interest rates works well for farmland
“If you do have a high inflationary environment with high interest rates, that works well for Farman. That's the 19 seventies for Farman.”
Jay Girotto Oct 14, 2019 ▶ 26:12 Jay Girotto – Farmland Opportunity (First Meeting, EP.10)
Oct 14, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Girotto: Farmland historically appreciates 6% annually from inflation and yield gains
“Historically, that has been around six percent. Half of that is inflation. This is a Very good inflation hedge. Soybeans go into like 3000 products, including the pen you're holding right there. I mean, it goes into everything. It is an inflation hedge, tracks…”
Jay Girotto Oct 14, 2019 ▶ 18:25 Jay Girotto – Farmland Opportunity (First Meeting, EP.10)
May 11, 2020
Insight
Siegel: Governments Have Only Three Ways to Raise Revenue
“There are only three ways a government can raise revenue. We can either get it through current taxation, borrowing, which means future taxation, or inflating away the real value of existing debt. Which is taxing the past.”
Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 17:41 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)
May 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegel: Massive government money printing will eventually trigger significant inflation
“Nothing has changed, and so we can expect inflation at some point because the government is printing a lot of money.”
Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 18:09 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)
Jul 8, 2021 bearish
Insight
Grantham: 3% to 5% inflation will compress PEs without hurting economy
“The economy is very, very durable in the face of Anything up to intermediate inflation levels, three, four, five percent. It won't affect the economy, but it will knock down price earnings ratios.”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 59:28 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
Jul 8, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: Wage inflation is not in immediate danger of spiraling
“To work through to wages, where inflation really starts to escalate, it's going to take a long time, because we've had such miserable deflation in the typical average wage for so long that we are not in immediate danger of having them spiral out of control.”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 56:19 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
Jul 8, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Grantham: GMO never featured inflation as a major risk in 20 years
“So I am actually very proud to say that I wrote quarterly letters for 20 years, and I never featured inflation as a major risk.”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 55:13 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
Jul 22, 2021 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ford predicts post-pandemic US inflation will dissipate within a year
“I think it's going to be natural to have some level of inflation here for a period of quarters. If it was a normal, gradual, cyclical recovery, or recovery coming out of a financial crisis like what you have all experienced, I think it's very, very different f…”
Bill Ford Jul 22, 2021 ▶ 50:41 Bill Ford – General Atlantic (Manager Meetings, EP.03)
Aug 12, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jensen: Policymakers will accept inflation over a deflationary market crash
“I think policymakers are much more likely to take inflation than a deflationary crash at this point. And there's so much that can be done in society by distributing the wealth via those mechanisms. So I think you're likely to see that.”
Greg Jensen Aug 12, 2021 ▶ 34:32 Greg Jensen – Bridgewater Associates (Manager Meetings, EP.06)
Aug 30, 2021 positive
Insight
High-quality compounders are one of the best long-term inflation hedges
“And these businesses typically trade at a premium on the public side. But I do think that given there's a lot of uncertainty around inflation, it's one of the better tools that we have, again, thinking long-term to protect against that.”
Jenny Heller Aug 30, 2021 ▶ 41:12 Jennifer Heller – Beginner's Mind with Professional Wisdom at Brandywine (Capital Allocators, EP.211)
Nov 8, 2021 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026
“And the upcoming next five years, it's one thing to have lower for longer yields. It's another thing to have lower for longer yields when some people's benchmarks, meaning inflation or the cost of living are way above those yields. And that's the change that I…”
Jordi Visser Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 7:42 Jordi Visser – Analytics and AQ at Weiss (Capital Allocators, EP.221)
Nov 24, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Higgins: Wage inflation is less transitory than goods and supply chains
“Wage much less transitory than the goods service. So I think there's the supply chain issues, which some might say will be resolved in short order. I think that will run a bit longer. The wage pressures will not be.”
Brian Higgins Nov 24, 2021 ▶ 41:00 Brian Higgins - King Street Capital (Manager Meeting, EP. 21)
Feb 28, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: The Federal Reserve will not risk a recession to curb inflation
“I think the That is extremely sensitive to the political risks domestically in the U S and they will not look to curb inflation at the risk of recession. I don't think they will, but I'm in that camp.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 14:18 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Mar 10, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Geopolitics has overtaken inflation as the primary market driver
“I'm starting to think that as important as that inflation conversation has been, I'm not sure that matters anymore, or at least not to the extent we thought it might three weeks ago, because this is now exclusively about geopolitics.”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 6:17 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Mar 10, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Average inflation will exceed pre-2020 decade levels for several years
“That over the next several years, average inflation would turn out to be higher than in at least the 10 years prior to say, twenty-twenty. That would be my best guess.”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 24:46 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Apr 18, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Lenehan: Widespread inflation across corporate operating costs is not temporary
“I was speaking to somebody yesterday who has a public investment, I think, in DoorDash, and he talks to that management team quite often, and the inflation that they're feeling is everywhere. It is in the packaging of the materials. It is in the food costs. It…”
Tom Lenehan Apr 18, 2022 ▶ 38:18 Tom Lenehan – Taking the Helm at the Wallace Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.246)
Apr 25, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: European Buying of US Weapons Will Worsen Domestic Inflation
“Today, European reaction to this, which is in essence, let's buy a bunch of US-made weapons, is going to make domestic inflation worse, and that it deteriorates further the current account balances, which then leads to weaker currency, which leads to greater i…”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 39:23 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
May 2, 2022 positive
Insight
Dowling: Allocators need a diversified real asset basket against inflation
“You need to make sure you have real assets and you probably should have a Diversified basket of real assets because inflation's weird. It reacts very differently to both expected and unexpected. There's no silver bullet.”
Greg Dowling May 2, 2022 ▶ 53:34 Greg Dowling – Mid-Market Institutional Consulting at FEG (Capital Allocators, EP.248)
Jul 25, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: The US will avoid a deep recession despite persistent inflation
“I do think the inflation is going to be a little more persistent, but I'm not one who believes that we're going to have a gigantic and deep recession when you're starting with 3.6% unemployment and healthy consumer balance sheets.”
Josh Friedman Jul 25, 2022 ▶ 51:54 Josh Friedman – Master Class in Credit Investing at Canyon (Capital Allocators, EP.263)
Oct 10, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: Deglobalization will drive higher inflation, lower margins, and lower valuations
“There's no doubt we are deglobalizing. The obvious impact is higher inflation. It's higher inflation, it's lower margins, higher structural interest rates, which makes for lower valuations.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 31:30 Louis-Vincent Gave – The Case for Emerging Markets (Capital Allocators, EP.275)
Feb 9, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Philpot: Farmland real estate has a 97% correlation with inflation
“Has a 97% correlation with inflation.”
Brian Philpot Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 15:21 Brian Philpot – Financing Farmers at AgAmerica (Capital Allocators, EP. 296)
Feb 20, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ivascyn: Green transition and geopolitics will drive structural inflation and desynchronized growth
“In the last few years, we've talked about a world where There's going to be less synchronized growth cycles where inflation is going to be more of a challenge going forward, perhaps structurally because of some of the physical investment necessary, particularl…”
Dan Ivascyn Feb 20, 2023 ▶ 28:06 Dan Ivascyn – Fixed Income in the Limelight Again (Capital Allocators, EP.298)
Feb 20, 2023 bearish
Insight
Ivascyn: Investors should not expect rapid government bailouts in next crisis
“I think with inflation where it is, with debt levels where they are, with political gridlock where it is currently, It's very dangerous to think that a rescue will come relatively quickly the next time we have a crisis type environment.”
Dan Ivascyn Feb 20, 2023 ▶ 44:31 Dan Ivascyn – Fixed Income in the Limelight Again (Capital Allocators, EP.298)
May 22, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Falls: Transition to multipolar world will keep inflation sticky
“That's one of the reasons I think inflation is going to be sticky, but I also think that could be valuable to have more international diversification because I think you're going to have different zones of economic activity, and I'm not sure you want to be com…”
Amy Falls May 22, 2023 ▶ 54:01 Amy Falls – From Bonds to Boards to Leading Northwestern (Capital Allocators, EP.316)
Jul 10, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aitken: Fed must be more hawkish than ever to tame inflation
“The pass-through effect this time, if the Fed's going to succeed in bringing inflation down back to target levels, it's going to have to be more persistent and more hawkish, I would argue, than any of us have experienced.”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 16:00 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Sep 11, 2023 bullish
Insight
Puffer: Renewables and resource investments offer premier inflation hedging
“The diversification can include renewables and resources, as an example, where that's diversification into some commodity price risk, and that can be one of the best hedges against inflation.”
Marlene Puffer Sep 11, 2023 ▶ 51:11 Marlene Puffer – Canadian Pension Model at AIMCo (EP.337)
Oct 9, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
HESTA bought cheap inflation hedges in 2019 when priced at 1%
“So we were buying inflation Back in 2019, when it was pricing at one percent, we were loving inflation. So, well, let's buy some of that.”
Sonya Sawtell-Rickson Oct 9, 2023 ▶ 29:12 Sonya Sawtell-Rickson – Total Portfolio Approach at Australian Superannuation HESTA (EP.342)
Oct 9, 2023 positive
Insight
Sawtell-Rickson: Real Assets Preserve Value via Replacement Costs and Indexed Income
“Obviously constrained by the cost of replacement, and as the cost of replacement rises, inflation rises, they can hold value in a way that other things may not, as well as often having inflation linked income streams.”
Sonya Sawtell-Rickson Oct 9, 2023 ▶ 43:49 Sonya Sawtell-Rickson – Total Portfolio Approach at Australian Superannuation HESTA (EP.342)
Jan 29, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arndt: Sustained Inflation Will Arrive in Recurring Cyclical Waves
“There's many, many reasons why we think inflation will be sustained. It doesn't mean it will stay double digits or high single digits. It will come back down, then it will go up again, then it will come back down, then it will go up again.”
Raphael Arndt Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 17:41 Raphael Arndt – The Death of Traditional Portfolio Construction? (EP.365)
Aug 19, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Fenton: Helmsley Targets Five Percent Plus Inflation Return to Maintain Perpetuity
“Because as a foundation, our goal is to last into perpetuity. We have to pay out five percent. That's the IRS mandated payout. So our long-term performance objective is five percent plus inflation. Obviously, inflation had been a hot topic. Our baseline for th…”
Joshua Fenton Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 37:50 CIO Transition – Roz Hewsenian and Joshua Fenton, Helmsley Trust (EP.401)
Feb 5, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Connor: Deglobalization and sticky inflation are highly bullish for natural resources
“We're in a world with high for longer sticky inflation, certainly a breakdown of the free trade agreements that were happening so easily. Previously, there's a lot of re-onshoring. Unfortunately, we've seen the best of the geopolitical environment from securit…”
Brendan O'Connor Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 16:43 Brendan O'Connor – Alpha Opportunities in Australia at Regal Partners (EP.485)
Apr 6, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Gold Benefits Most From Sustained Inflation and Geopolitical Restructuring
“We're in a period now of a total and complete restructuring of the geopolitical equilibrium. We're in a period of sustained higher inflation. There's one asset that fills that gap that's created when things change like that. All that change leads to fear, unce…”
Bruce MacDonald Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 39:18 Bruce MacDonald – The Playbook for Building a Mid-Sized Endowment from Scratch (EP.495)
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