The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 803 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sachs: Minnesota released roughly 470 convicted illegal immigrants last year
“Last year, there was something like 470 convicts, ok, illegal aliens, criminals. And I'm not talking about that their crime wasn't breaking into the country. I'm talking about subsequent crimes that were released In Minnesota, so they cannot be rounded up by I…”
Dr. Oz: Miami Mayor reduced homelessness 90% via mandatory rehab arrests
“Mayor Suarez in Miami dropped a number by 90% and he did it just by making sure that you got arrested every time you peed publicly and they don't put you in jail. They put you in, in rehab.”
Makary claims 14% of all NIH grants went to DEI research
“14% of any NIH grants went to DEI research.”
Lutnick: Tariff revenues fund proposed tax exemptions on tips and Social Security
“Who paid for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security. Right? Tariffs.”
Lutnick: Ozempic and Mounjaro added to Medicare and Medicaid for $149
“So, the result is Ozempic and Munjara are on Medicaid and Medicare. For a hundred and 49 dollars instead of not on it.”
Lutnick: Merck agreed to offer top drug free to Medicare and Medicaid
“One of the drug companies, Merck, said they're gonna just give us their number one drug in the world. They're gonna give it to Medicaid and Medicare for zero.”
Sacks: Rep. Ilhan Omar went from negative net worth to multi-millionaire
“But still, she went from negative to being a multi-millionaire in two years.”
Tony Hinchcliffe: Trump saw 20% Puerto Rican support bump in Pennsylvania
“20% Puerto Rican increase in the state of Pennsylvania.”
David Sacks: 50% of Stanford students claim disabled status for test accommodations
“At Stanford, they said that if you're disabled, you get more time on tests, and you can kind of be unproctored, and kind of... Accommodations. Right. So now, 50% of students at Stanford say they're disabled.”
Chamath claims specialized power grid electricians earn up to $800,000 annually
“These electricians now get paid five, six, seven, 800,000 dollars a year, which by the way, just FYI, is more than most engineers in Silicon Valley, ok?”
Musk: UK has 2,000 to 3,000 people imprisoned for social media posts
“My understanding is that in the UK, there's something like two or 3000 people in prison for social media posts.”
Manchin claims climate protesters at his houseboat were organized and paid
“Oh, no, that was organized. They were paid, Shamath, because a lot of my friends who live on the, down at the river, on the Potomac River with me, on the boat, They played like, how can I get a job with you? How can I do this if I want to protest? They said, I…”
Sramek: China's Zhongjing Island shipyard outproduced post-WWII US total last year
“Zhongjing Island shipyard in China built more ships last year than we have built collectively in the United States since the end of the Second World War.”
Sacks: Most San Francisco homeless individuals moved there from outside the city
“The homeless we have in San Francisco are not predominantly from San Francisco. They're from all over the country, all over the surrounding area. They come here for the benefits.”
Sacks: Donald Trump ended seven wars in seven months
“President Trump has ended seven wars in seven months before this one.”
Rand Paul: Fauci privately admitted a 50-50 chance COVID originated from a lab
“In private, Anthony Fauci is saying, I'm fifty-fifty, whether this came from the lab or animals.”
Paul: An NIH foundation holds $1.2 trillion in Big Pharma vaccine revenue
“There's an NIH foundation that has 1.2 trillion dollars in it given from Big Pharma for their share of the COVID vaccine.”
Chamath: A top-performing VC fund has zero correlation with the next fund
“Having a killer fund has zero correlation with your ability to then have a next killer fund.”
Schmitt: Fauci deposition revealed efforts to undermine Jay Bhattacharya over natural immunity
“When we had the opportunity to take Anthony Fauci's deposition at NIH that was mind blowing. It's only the second time his deposition was taken and we find out all the links that which he went to undermine people like, by the way, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who was…”
Schmitt: Released DNI documents show Clinton was Russia's preferred candidate
“Actually in the documents that were released by Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, was that Hillary Clinton was the preferred candidate. They had the goods on her. They had her medical records, all this stuff. So Trump was not like this pref…”
Chamath: Top venture fund performance has zero correlation with next fund success
“Having a killer fund has zero correlation with your ability to then have a next killer fund as an LP.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Wright: All US batteries combined store five minutes of grid power
“If you take all the batteries in the United States, you could store five minutes of power.”
Vance predicts US will see net negative immigration in 2025
“I think in 2025, we will have the first net negative immigration number in about 50 or 60 years in the United States”
Loeffler: Biden administration banned SBA loans for purchasing AI technology
“In fact, with regard to AI, the Biden administration banned the use of SBA based loans for use of purchasing technology and AI.”
Rabois: US educational metrics uniformly declined since Department of Education's 1979 creation
“Every single educational stat has got worse in the United States since the department was created.”
Robbins: 60% of people using drugs or therapy for depression see zero improvement
“60% of the people who use drugs or therapy to try and get out of depression, make zero improvements.”
Carlson: Nearly 50 million undocumented immigrants live in the US
“The real number is not twenty million, it's closer to fifty million, I think that's true illegals in the United States.”
Gracias: Biden administration raised citizenship database API fees, deterring states
“In the Biden administration, they raised the price, when I think about a dollar, an API call, to three dollars and change the API call, and all the states stop using it.”
Shapiro: All net U.S. taxes are paid by the top income quintile
“All net taxes in this country are paid by the top quintile, all of them, because below the top quintile, you're getting as much back from the government or more than you are paying into the system.”
Chamath: Trump reduced illegal US border crossings to zero
“I'm just saying getting the illegal crossings to zero and he's done that.”
Gracias: Social Security Administration issued numbers based on minimal ID
“You get a Social Security number before we got here by walking in office. Answering, you know, with a medical record and a school ID that had your name and your date, the date of birth on it.”
Friedberg: China's 3nm semiconductor technology will reach full production in 2026
“China, one thing that's not talked about, which I'll add in, seems to have developed three nanometer semiconductor manufacturing technology, which is going to go into production in Q three of 20, 25, and will end up being in full production in 20, 26.”
Lutnick: Federal government inflates pre-election GDP with spending spikes
“And I'm going to break it out for the last 20 years. And what you're going to see is, Every time the quarter just before an election, all the government spending happens right then and there. It's all of a sudden you have this jump in GDP. Right. Total lie. To…”
Lutnick: $200 billion in PPP funds went to Chinese fraud gangs
“So it was proven that two hundred billion of the 1.2 trillion was going to Chinese Fraud gangs.”
Lutnick: No country practices free trade and US is the least protective
“There is no country in this world that is free trade. Zero. And we are the lowest and the dumbest, because everybody else is higher and more protective.”
Lutnick: Tariffs drove $2 trillion of committed domestic production to US
“Two trillion dollars of committed domestic production coming back because of his tariffs.”
Bessent: Government services will not be cut by DOGE efficiency efforts
“Everyone's hearing cuts, and they think their government services are going to get cut. Super important. They're not.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: Renewables now generate 95% of all US energy
“Right now, 95% of all of the energy we generate in America is from renewables.”
Chamath: Paying people to vote is legal under current election rules
“Using dollar incentives to incentivize people, that's allowed today. You can pay people to vote today.”
Steve Cohen: US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in H2
“We think growth is going to slow to one and a half percent from two and a half percent in the second half, and so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while, and it may only last a year or so, but it's definitely, I think the best gains have be…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts DOGE spending cuts could exceed $2 trillion
“I suspect to be honest, it could be more than two trillion dollars when it's all said and done.”
Chamath predicts the Alternative for Germany party will win in 2025
“In Germany, AFD looks like they will win.”
Chamath predicts a reasonable chance of a major US banking crisis
“I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks.”
Bannon predicts Judge Merchan will sentence Donald Trump to prison
“Mershon is no doubt to me Mershon is going to give him a prison sentence.”
Chamath: Starbucks sales will decline as GLP-1 drug adoption grows
“And I think if you start to graph the adoption of GLP ones pervasively in America to the drop in same store sales, I think as GLP one adoption goes up, same store sales will continue to go down.”