The Ledger, every show

“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”

“Intel is literally gonna go bankrupt if they don't have a big cash infusion, or they lay off, like, half the company, right?”

“Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue, and their API revenue is primarily not thinking. It's clawed for, but it's not in the thinking mode.”

“The theme here is that all, like, there's multiple Chinese model labs who are telling all the inference guys, hey, yeah, yeah, our next model's not gonna be open source, we're gonna license it to you. So open is, is dying quickly, unfortunately.”

“I think other folks will start to reckon with the fact that, huh, If this person can do the work of five to 10 to 15 people using quad code, then all of a sudden I should probably cut people.”

“Anthropic has gone from nine billion revenue to what they're at, 35, forty billion. Now probably by the time this airs, 40, forty-five billion. Who knows? ARR.”

“So ultimately what they've done, even if you assume all incremental compute they've gotten has gone towards inference, their margins are at a floor of 72%. In reality, some of that incremental compute they've got probably went to research and development and m…”

“But the shitty SaaS startup and SF who is using Claude to generate, you know, their software product is not necessarily actually creating a ton of value, and therefore they're gonna get priced out of tokens soon enough.”

“There's people who have argued GPUs full lives are less than five years. Complete nonsense. There are clusters now re-signing three or four year old hopper clusters re-signing for three or four more years. There's a 100 clusters that are re-signing for another…”

“DRAM will double or triple from here still, because That's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else, and the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher prici…”

“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”

“What I think is most likely is that there is some sort of political coup or action. That destabilizes Taiwan in some way but doesn't actually, doesn't necessarily lead to an invasion, a full-scale invasion, and so sort of this is the best of the both worlds fo…”

“Anthropic doesn't just add two billion dollars of revenue in one month. You know, with, without having, you know, huge demand and they're doing it at positive margins, right?”

“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”

“And I think that's gonna be, like, the hottest button issue of, like, the next election, right? If not the midterms, right? And it seems obvious to me that, like, any party that wants to win should just become the anti-AI party.”

“I don't know what a venture capitalist views as like likely chances of succeeding, but I think all of them are less than one percent.”

“Well, actually they were using shell companies to get chips from TSMC and using Different methods of like sneaking HBM, which is memory from, you know, Korea through Taiwan to China, right?”

“But without AI, China definitely will rise to be the global hegemony. They're just gonna outrun America.”

“Just like a lot of companies have stopped hiring L four engineers because it's useless.”

“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”

“Where you see Anthropic have gone from, like, what, like, a billion or less of revenue to seven to eight by, you know, already, and it's the fastest revenue ramp we've ever seen for anything of this capacity.”

“I think if we didn't have the AI boom, the U.S. Probably would be behind China and no longer the world hegemon by the end of the decade, if not sooner.”

“I think they'll be able to ramp. I think it'll take a little bit longer and there will be, like, a sort of a gap in between where China probably backtracks and says it's fine.”

“With OpenAI, it's not, and so there's gotta be some, like, error bars as you go further out in terms of, like, Will OpenAI exist in 28, 29 30, and will they be able to pay the 80 plus billion dollars a year that they've signed up to Oracle with, right?”

“If you look at the revenue ARR chart, it's like, Cloud code in, like, three months has surpassed them, and, like, cursor, you know, easily surpassed them, and then, like, even, like, companies like Replin or, like, and Windsurf slash Cognition are, like, gonna…”

“Microsoft is not building Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”

“Huawei is still getting you know, wafers in Taiwan from TSMC through, like, shell companies, right?”

“Google's brought in a level of reliability that NVIDIA GPUs don't have. You know, the dirty secret is to go ask people what the reliability rate of GPUs is in the cloud or in a deployment. It's like, oh God, it is not, they're reliable-ish, like, but like, esp…”

“I think Meta and Microsoft may even take their free cash flows close to zero and just spent.”

“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”

“Paris is you know, they have all this spare power. One of the funny things is like, they're like, oh, okay, let's build a bunch of data centers. But then Spain, Italy, Belgium the Netherlands and Germany All freaked out because it's like, oh wait, all this spa…”

“The BLS has this entire Bureau of Labor Statistics has this entire, like, set of, like, 2000 tasks, And so he did that with AI, which ones can be done by AI, which ones cannot and grading them across a rubric, you know, about three percent are doable now with …”

“Current 4.6 Opus or 4.7 Opus to your models a year from now, my spend for the same exact quality of the model would probably be like 70 K. I bet you it'll be a hundred times cheaper.”

“Where they only release, meet those to certain companies for cyber, that's just going to be something that continues. Models will have less broad and less broad deployment.”

“And so I think in the next six to 18 months, we'll start seeing real breakthroughs in robotics that enable few shot learning, i.e. There's a pre-trained robot model, and now there's a robot that you have hired or bought or whatever. You showed a few examples a…”

“But ultimately, yes, Mythos is a significantly larger model. It's proof that the scaling laws still work. Everything about it shows that the trend line continues of models. More compute into model makes model better.”

“It's pretty clear even the tier two lab is going to be sold out of tokens, let alone the tier one lab. The tier one lab will have better margins, but the tier two lab will be sold out and probably the tier three lab will also be close to sold out.”

“Sincerely, they may spend a hundred billion dollars on capex in twenty-twenty-eight, and people, like, just can't fathom that”

“CPU-wise, all these reinforcement learning environments plus all the slop code you and I are generating that is now running on some, you know, Vercel instance or whatever it is or some AWS instance or some bucket that we've spun up, all of that requires CPU, a…”

“You look at the comments of news articles where Sam Altman had a Molotov cocktail thrown at his house twice in like two weeks.”

“Even if the KMT wins, it's not like TSMC starts disobeying American export restrictions because The way American export restrictions are upheld is that Taiwan utilizes American banking systems, American equipment industries, and so they'll still have to uphold…”

“Just in January, it went from four percent of or two percent of commits on GitHub to four percent of GitHub commits were done by Cloud Code, right?”

“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”

“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”

“What's the bottleneck to building more fabs or to building more chips is more fabs, and people just have not built these fabs yet, right? And that's, I think, the big bottleneck now. And that's gonna persist through the end of the decade. Or until AI, you know…”

“In a general purpose workload, crock. Grok doesn't work, right? You know, it can't train, it can't, you know, it can't inference really, really large models cost efficiently, right? You can't serve many, many, many users, but what it can do is it can go block,…”

“In fact, they missed revenue last year significantly and yet they got bought, right? Because the value of the IP was there and the value of the team.”

“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”