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SAASTR Opinion
Kellogg: The SaaS IPO Bar Has Risen to $500M ARR
“The IPO bar is just spectacularly high right now. I think it's around five hundred million in ARR by my math.”
Dave Kellogg Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 3:25 What Really Matters in SaaS in 2025 with Jason Lemkin and Dave Kellogg
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: PE Firms Want SaaS Companies Fixed Before Acquiring Them
“The biggest thing I've learned about working with PE is I thought they were fixer upper people... And I don't actually think many of them like to do that. They want it fixed first.”
Dave Kellogg Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 5:08 What Really Matters in SaaS in 2025 with Jason Lemkin and Dave Kellogg
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: Private Equity Can Turn Most Stagnant SaaS Companies to 20%+ EBITDA
“A lot of times founders think it's not possible and give that company to a PE person. And I guarantee you they're going to have 20% EBITDA, maybe 30% EBITDA in a couple of years. It can be done.”
Dave Kellogg Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 37:44 What Really Matters in SaaS in 2025 with Jason Lemkin and Dave Kellogg
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kellogg: VCs stop calling SaaS startups with CAC payback exceeding 24-36 months
“I do think somewhere around 24 to 36 months people stop calling you back, so you have a different problem. It doesn't matter how good your story is if you don't get the meaning.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 6:54 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Kellogg: Startups blaming rising CAC on 'low-hanging fruit' underestimate market size
“I think most startups, when they make that argument to me, I think they're vastly underestimating the size of their market. That if you have a really, really big market, That, that you haven't picked all the low hanging fruit.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 13:25 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Kellogg: SaaS NRR dropped to 105%, driven mainly by increased churn
“And by the way, if you asked, like, the most recent study, I think, said one oh five. The reason I said one oh eight is I just can't make my mouth say one oh five. But I think it may have come down from one 20 to one oh five, to be honest, and I think it's thr…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 16:22 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Pitched against competitor hunters, SaaS customer success farmers always lose
“The single biggest sin in SAS is putting your farmer against someone else's hunter, right? Cause they will lose.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 23:41 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Leaders should be unsympathetic to CS VPs missing churn forecasts
“So, so I just think CS for it, I am, if a VP of sales misses their forecast, I'm somewhat understanding. To me, it's I'm not very sympathetic to a VP of CS that misses their forecast, because how is it that you didn't know?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 26:36 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Dave Kellogg: Keeping non-performing sales reps is harder than firing them
“The hardest case is not firing somebody who's not selling. That's easy. The hardest case is keeping somebody who's not selling.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 33:30 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Outbound sales strategy fails on low ACV $5k productivity products
“If you're selling a 5000 dollar a year system to anybody, As a generic productivity tool, I have a lot more trouble getting excited about outdoor.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 51:14 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Kellogg: Founder replacements will increase and favor GTM executives
“If and when you replace a founder, which was extremely unpopular for the last five years, but I think will get more popular going forward, you will tend to replace them with a GTM person.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:02:02 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kellogg: Andreessen Horowitz paused Silicon Valley founder replacements for over a decade
“Jason Horowitz, in my opinion, Put that trend on hold for a decade or more, right?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:02:24 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Kellogg: AI sales tools will reduce sales support headcount by 30%
“Well, you know, battery came up with a famous slide well now famous slide, but they basically said, I'm going to get the, I think to support 30 sellers, they argued that today it takes a 110 personal organization and that tomorrow it'll take 75. So they're say…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:06:51 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Hiring Sales VPs Based on Pedigree Often Rewards Luck Over Skill
“Hiring a VP on pedigree value who turns out just to have been in the right place at the right time.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:09:51 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Kellogg: Stuffing Startups Full of Cash Encourages Unhealthy Wasteful Spending
“I honestly don't believe that floggrowing startups, as they say, stuffing them full of cash is a healthy behavior. Some are actually good. I know a few that seem good at raising money and not spending it and saving it to grow later, right? But most people, whe…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:11:36 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: Executive infighting is a direct reflection of a weak CEO
“Another friend of mine has this expression from Machiavelli that warring princes means one thing, a weak king. And if you're CEO of the company, you cannot allow warring princes in your company. Everybody sees it. The whole company knows if two E staffers are …”
Dave Kellogg Sep 3, 2023 ▶ 9:38 "The Top 5 Questions Every CEO Wrestles With Dave Kellogg, ex-CEO Host Analytics": SaaStr Classic
SAASTR Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benioff dismissed early Zendesk threats to Salesforce to avoid fear-based leadership
“I did a year at Salesforce in the middle of all that, and I was mentioning Zendesk. I was like, hey, there's these guys called Zendesk, and they might be a problem for, like, our customer service business and I got the kind of uh-oh moment where, like, oh, and…”
Dave Kellogg Sep 3, 2023 ▶ 16:28 "The Top 5 Questions Every CEO Wrestles With Dave Kellogg, ex-CEO Host Analytics": SaaStr Classic
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: Companies must be vision-driven publicly, customer-driven culturally, competitor-driven strategically
“Avoid this fake either or framing, which is you need to speak like you're vision driven. So when you're talking to customers and analysts, the markets, talk about the desired end state. Talk about the vision. Don't talk about competition. When you're building …”
Dave Kellogg Sep 3, 2023 ▶ 17:53 "The Top 5 Questions Every CEO Wrestles With Dave Kellogg, ex-CEO Host Analytics": SaaStr Classic
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: 80% quarterly rep quota attainment in enterprise SaaS is nearly impossible
“First, you did not have on a quarterly basis in an enterprise company, 80% of your reps every quarter. You might have had 80% every year. You might, right? 80% at a hundred percent of quota on an annual basis is very good. On a quarterly basis, it's almost imp…”
Dave Kellogg Jul 20, 2022 ▶ 20:35 5 Scale-Up Mistakes for Startups with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: Startups Scaling Past $10M ARR Should Redeploy Early Leaders
“I've worked with many startups where the figure it out sales VP had to leave when we hit ten million. And I always feel bad about that, because I don't actually think they have to leave. I think they should be redeployed. Like, my answer is, what do you do wit…”
Dave Kellogg Jul 20, 2022 ▶ 25:39 5 Scale-Up Mistakes for Startups with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Opinion
Kellogg: Enterprise SaaS startups should wait until $100M+ ARR for second product
“In terms of second product, I talked about Jason Lemkin's work before, but he's done a series of tweets and blogs, and from his research to me, for most companies, it's probably a hundred million plus in ARR, and maybe multiple, for the companies I work with, …”
Dave Kellogg Jul 20, 2022 ▶ 30:45 5 Scale-Up Mistakes for Startups with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: SaaS Startups Should Charge Above Market for Services to Enable Partners
“Create your own agency or your own services org. Charge for it. Charge market rates. Maybe even a little more than market rates. Actually, not maybe. Charge more than market rates, and then build a partner network.”
Dave Kellogg Jul 20, 2022 ▶ 45:36 5 Scale-Up Mistakes for Startups with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Opinion
Kellogg: Most marketers lack rigorous thinking and confuse executives with jargon
“You're confused by ill-defined terminology and process, most marketers are not that rigorous in their thinking and you're drawn into conflict between sales and marketing, right?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 6, 2022 ▶ 4:48 A CEO's Guide to Marketing with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: CMOs should quarterback overall pipeline coverage across all sources
“Now to me, the best practice here is that marketing should be the quarterback of the pipeline, because if you think about those four funnels, the only person they all report to is the CEO. So either you're going to be the quarterback of the pipeline, or you're…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 6, 2022 ▶ 18:36 A CEO's Guide to Marketing with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: ARR is a fact while churn rates are an opinion
“There's a semi-famous quote that but cash is a fact, profit is an opinion. I feel the same way about ARR and churn, that ARR is a fact churn, And churn rates are an opinion.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 10, 2021 ▶ 30:29 Churn is dead. Long live Net Dollar Retention Rate with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Assertion Contradicted
Kellogg: Net Dollar Retention Shows Almost Zero Correlation With SaaS Multiples
“The R squared is only .O six between net dollar retention and enterprise value to next 12 months revenue.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 10, 2021 ▶ 42:41 Churn is dead. Long live Net Dollar Retention Rate with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: NDR Is a Financing Enabler, Not a Valuation Driver
“So it's not a valuation driver. I now think of it as a financing enabler, right? Okay. So a higher one isn't necessarily by itself going to drive a higher valuation, but I could tell you if you don't have a high enough one, you're not going to be able to raise…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 10, 2021 ▶ 42:48 Churn is dead. Long live Net Dollar Retention Rate with Dave Kellogg | SaaStr Software Community
SAASTR Insight
Horizontal SaaS startups facing heavily funded rivals must out-raise them or pivot
“If you're in some horizontal platform category, people may throw hundreds of millions, maybe even billions, of VC at the category. And you don't get to not play. So, if you find yourself in this situation, it's probably a sign that you're in a really good cate…”
Dave Kellogg May 22, 2019 ▶ 11:37 The Top 5 Questions Every CEO Wrestles With - Lessons From Dave Kellogg
SAASTR Insight
CEOs must proactively assign board members work or risk unhelpful meddling
“If I'm not keeping the board busy, Helping me drive the company, they are going to come in with ideas and ways to help that I may not find helpful.”
Dave Kellogg May 22, 2019 ▶ 20:21 The Top 5 Questions Every CEO Wrestles With - Lessons From Dave Kellogg
SAASTR Insight
Startups must be publicly vision-driven, culturally customer-driven, and strategically competitor-driven
“Avoid this fake either or framing, which is you need to speak like you're vision driven. So when you're talking to customers and analysts, the markets, talk about the desired end state. Talk about the vision. Don't talk about competition. When you're building …”
Dave Kellogg May 22, 2019 ▶ 23:05 The Top 5 Questions Every CEO Wrestles With - Lessons From Dave Kellogg
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: Customer Success Should Not Report to Sales or the CRO
“By the way, for whatever it's worth, I don't actually think customer success should report to sales. I think that's a stress reaction to save money. I think the company hits a downturn. There's too much sales expense, which customer success is usually classifi…”
Dave Kellogg Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 30:30 What Really Matters in SaaS in 2025 with Jason Lemkin and Dave Kellogg
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: Startups Should Copy Standard Pricing Models Unless Disrupting
“Unless your business plan is predicated on price model disruption, do what everybody else does.”
Dave Kellogg Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 41:00 What Really Matters in SaaS in 2025 with Jason Lemkin and Dave Kellogg
SAASTR Insight
Kellogg: Enterprise software manages pricing friction via consistency or complexity
“There's two ways to solve that problem. One is to have super consistent pricing, which in my experience in enterprise is very difficult. The other is to have very complicated pricing. So it's very hard for them to figure out who got the better deal.”
Dave Kellogg Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 51:03 What Really Matters in SaaS in 2025 with Jason Lemkin and Dave Kellogg
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Ideal customer profile evolves from aspiration to regression
“An ICP, ideal customer profile. ICP starts out as an aspiration, and over time it becomes a regression, right?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 4:58 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Good CAC ratio benchmark is 1.5 for enterprise, 1.0 for SMB
“I'd say a 1.5 or less is in enterprise. I mean, here we are back to your question. The bigger the deals, the more permission you have. So an enterprise, I might go one five. In SMB, I might go one O.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 9:34 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: SaaS operators should calculate CAC ratio with new ARR, not net new ARR
“As an operator, I actually just do it on new ARR. My first order CAC is just, it's not net new, because net new introduced churn. You just made my metric more complicated, right? You made it easier to cheat. You took away some of its meaning.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 10:23 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Dave Kellogg: Churn forecasting is easier than new sales forecasting
“Churn forecasting to me is actually easier than new sales forecasting.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 25:31 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: A good sales forecast gently upslopes to actual sales, not quota
“And a good forecast looks like this, gently upsloping to the actual number you sell. Notice I've never talked about quota. Because forecast is not about quota.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 28:45 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Pressuring reps into higher commits ruins sales forecasting accuracy
“Some sales managers use the forecast as a club to kind of push the reps around. Like if I could just in a moment of week is get you commit to one 20, then I can hold it against you for the rest of the quarter. First, I don't think that's great sales management…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 30:07 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Dave Kellogg: Startups should hire sales reps in groups of three
“So I like hiring three at a time but not for the Hunger Games effect, for the controlled experiment effect.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 31:34 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Dave Kellogg: Evaluating enterprise sales reps takes six to twelve months
“I would say somewhere between six and 12 months in enterprise.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 32:37 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Kellogg: CEOs are negligent if not deeply involved in material quarterly deals
“As a CEO founder, I think you just need to look at the materiality of the deal to the quarter. And like, are you What's the word? But negligence in your duties. Like at some level, if the deal is material of the quarter, you better be in it deep.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 36:28 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Sales reps' sole job is forecasting and closing on time
“You don't make the software. So your only job is to sell the software. You're not a technical resource. You don't help customers deploy. So this is kind of the, you had one job argument, right? Like you had one job. And it's like, let's just remember, that's w…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 37:27 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Deal slips are only excusable due to unforeseen acts of God
“The company got acquired on the last day of the quarter, all purchasing got frozen. Okay! Right? That we couldn't have seen coming, right? But it needs to literally be that level of act of God, right, before It's before it's an excusable reason for a slip.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 40:45 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Dave Kellogg: Using customer references as sales negotiating chips is flawed
“I don't love it as a negotiating chip because if I'm doing right by your business and if I'm delivering value and if we have a good relationship, you should do it anyway. And if you're only doing it because of a gun to your head, because you promised you'd do …”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 47:03 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kellogg: Outbound sales worked significantly better four years ago than today
“I think Outbound actually worked better four years ago than it does today, because I think everyone's doing it, and people are getting flooded with it, and they don't like getting called on their cell phone, they're not answering their regular phone, and you c…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 49:35 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Buyers purchase software when they see similar peers using it
“I mean, I can summarize all of Jeffrey Moore in one sentence, which is people buy when they think people like them use your solution, period.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 51:53 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Kellogg: Expanding across verticals or use cases is high-friction for startups
“The other thing, so I imagine this all as a matrix of vertical versus use case, and every time you're hopping a cell, it's danger, right? Like you know how to sell the custom publishing use case to publishers. Can I sell it to airlines? First, the first one is…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 59:18 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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