Dave Kellogg, veteran B2B SaaS executive, explains his matrix framework for evaluating market expansion across distinct industry verticals and customer use cases.
“The other thing, so I imagine this all as a matrix of vertical versus use case, and every time you're hopping a cell, it's danger, right? Like you know how to sell the custom publishing use case to publishers. Can I sell it to airlines? First, the first one is really, really hard, right? And once you've got one, then you can start to replicate. But any time you're hopping in this matrix, you should put a big, like, yellow, this is gonna be difficult, flag. And if you think you could just kind of knock these things down like dominoes, no way.”
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“I do think somewhere around 24 to 36 months people stop calling you back, so you have a different problem. It doesn't matter how good your story is if you don't get the meaning.”
Dave KelloggJan 31, 2024▶ 6:54Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
“I think most startups, when they make that argument to me, I think they're vastly underestimating the size of their market. That if you have a really, really big market, That, that you haven't picked all the low hanging fruit.”
Dave KelloggJan 31, 2024▶ 13:25Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Kellogg: SaaS NRR dropped to 105%, driven mainly by increased churn
“And by the way, if you asked, like, the most recent study, I think, said one oh five. The reason I said one oh eight is I just can't make my mouth say one oh five. But I think it may have come down from one 20 to one oh five, to be honest, and I think it's thr…”
Dave KelloggJan 31, 2024▶ 16:22Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
“The single biggest sin in SAS is putting your farmer against someone else's hunter, right? Cause they will lose.”
Dave KelloggJan 31, 2024▶ 23:41Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Leaders should be unsympathetic to CS VPs missing churn forecasts
“So, so I just think CS for it, I am, if a VP of sales misses their forecast, I'm somewhat understanding. To me, it's I'm not very sympathetic to a VP of CS that misses their forecast, because how is it that you didn't know?”
Dave KelloggJan 31, 2024▶ 26:36Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Keeping non-performing sales reps is harder than firing them
“The hardest case is not firing somebody who's not selling. That's easy. The hardest case is keeping somebody who's not selling.”
Dave KelloggJan 31, 2024▶ 33:30Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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