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Dave Kellogg

Executive in Residence, Balderton Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

executiveoperatorauthorinvestorhost@kellblog ↗LinkedIn ↗kellblog.com ↗

Dave Kellogg is an enterprise software executive who previously served as CEO of Host Analytics and MarkLogic, and CMO of Business Objects. He advises high-growth SaaS startups and publishes widely read analysis on go-to-market strategy and metrics on his site, Kellblog.

40statements → 7claims → 2claims resolved → 3.88/5average certainty → 2.6/5average debate potential → 4.3/5argument clarity · the sources → 8said about them ↓

1 supported 1 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 4 not checkable as stated how the 7 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 predictions · 4 assertions · 4 opinions · 29 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 7 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 4 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Dave argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
Dave Kellogg: AI sales tools market will consolidate within 18 months
“So if I were a founder of one of these companies, I'd be very aggressive right now to get myself known and established in the market, because this market will organize, right? We're in the chaos phase of the market, and so from the vendor side, this will organ…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:05:32 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
100% certainty 3
75% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.3 / 5 directness 4.5 · coherence 4.6 · precision 4.2 · compression 3.9

redirected or did not address 3 of 44 assessed questions (7%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

294 words/min while actually speaking · 7.7 um and uh per 1k words · 16.1 false starts per 1k · 24.4% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 12,502 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 5/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 3/10
setup questions received 15%

Everything Dave Kellogg said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kellogg: VCs stop calling SaaS startups with CAC payback exceeding 24-36 months
“I do think somewhere around 24 to 36 months people stop calling you back, so you have a different problem. It doesn't matter how good your story is if you don't get the meaning.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 6:54 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Kellogg: Startups blaming rising CAC on 'low-hanging fruit' underestimate market size
“I think most startups, when they make that argument to me, I think they're vastly underestimating the size of their market. That if you have a really, really big market, That, that you haven't picked all the low hanging fruit.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 13:25 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Kellogg: SaaS NRR dropped to 105%, driven mainly by increased churn
“And by the way, if you asked, like, the most recent study, I think, said one oh five. The reason I said one oh eight is I just can't make my mouth say one oh five. But I think it may have come down from one 20 to one oh five, to be honest, and I think it's thr…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 16:22 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Pitched against competitor hunters, SaaS customer success farmers always lose
“The single biggest sin in SAS is putting your farmer against someone else's hunter, right? Cause they will lose.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 23:41 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Leaders should be unsympathetic to CS VPs missing churn forecasts
“So, so I just think CS for it, I am, if a VP of sales misses their forecast, I'm somewhat understanding. To me, it's I'm not very sympathetic to a VP of CS that misses their forecast, because how is it that you didn't know?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 26:36 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Keeping non-performing sales reps is harder than firing them
“The hardest case is not firing somebody who's not selling. That's easy. The hardest case is keeping somebody who's not selling.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 33:30 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Outbound sales strategy fails on low ACV $5k productivity products
“If you're selling a 5000 dollar a year system to anybody, As a generic productivity tool, I have a lot more trouble getting excited about outdoor.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 51:14 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Kellogg: Founder replacements will increase and favor GTM executives
“If and when you replace a founder, which was extremely unpopular for the last five years, but I think will get more popular going forward, you will tend to replace them with a GTM person.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:02:02 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kellogg: Andreessen Horowitz paused Silicon Valley founder replacements for over a decade
“Jason Horowitz, in my opinion, Put that trend on hold for a decade or more, right?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:02:24 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Kellogg: AI sales tools will reduce sales support headcount by 30%
“Well, you know, battery came up with a famous slide well now famous slide, but they basically said, I'm going to get the, I think to support 30 sellers, they argued that today it takes a 110 personal organization and that tomorrow it'll take 75. So they're say…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:06:51 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Hiring Sales VPs Based on Pedigree Often Rewards Luck Over Skill
“Hiring a VP on pedigree value who turns out just to have been in the right place at the right time.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:09:51 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Kellogg: Stuffing Startups Full of Cash Encourages Unhealthy Wasteful Spending
“I honestly don't believe that floggrowing startups, as they say, stuffing them full of cash is a healthy behavior. Some are actually good. I know a few that seem good at raising money and not spending it and saving it to grow later, right? But most people, whe…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:11:36 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Ideal customer profile evolves from aspiration to regression
“An ICP, ideal customer profile. ICP starts out as an aspiration, and over time it becomes a regression, right?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 4:58 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Good CAC ratio benchmark is 1.5 for enterprise, 1.0 for SMB
“I'd say a 1.5 or less is in enterprise. I mean, here we are back to your question. The bigger the deals, the more permission you have. So an enterprise, I might go one five. In SMB, I might go one O.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 9:34 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: SaaS operators should calculate CAC ratio with new ARR, not net new ARR
“As an operator, I actually just do it on new ARR. My first order CAC is just, it's not net new, because net new introduced churn. You just made my metric more complicated, right? You made it easier to cheat. You took away some of its meaning.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 10:23 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Churn forecasting is easier than new sales forecasting
“Churn forecasting to me is actually easier than new sales forecasting.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 25:31 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: A good sales forecast gently upslopes to actual sales, not quota
“And a good forecast looks like this, gently upsloping to the actual number you sell. Notice I've never talked about quota. Because forecast is not about quota.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 28:45 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Pressuring reps into higher commits ruins sales forecasting accuracy
“Some sales managers use the forecast as a club to kind of push the reps around. Like if I could just in a moment of week is get you commit to one 20, then I can hold it against you for the rest of the quarter. First, I don't think that's great sales management…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 30:07 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Startups should hire sales reps in groups of three
“So I like hiring three at a time but not for the Hunger Games effect, for the controlled experiment effect.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 31:34 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Evaluating enterprise sales reps takes six to twelve months
“I would say somewhere between six and 12 months in enterprise.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 32:37 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Kellogg: CEOs are negligent if not deeply involved in material quarterly deals
“As a CEO founder, I think you just need to look at the materiality of the deal to the quarter. And like, are you What's the word? But negligence in your duties. Like at some level, if the deal is material of the quarter, you better be in it deep.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 36:28 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Sales reps' sole job is forecasting and closing on time
“You don't make the software. So your only job is to sell the software. You're not a technical resource. You don't help customers deploy. So this is kind of the, you had one job argument, right? Like you had one job. And it's like, let's just remember, that's w…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 37:27 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Kellogg: Deal slips are only excusable due to unforeseen acts of God
“The company got acquired on the last day of the quarter, all purchasing got frozen. Okay! Right? That we couldn't have seen coming, right? But it needs to literally be that level of act of God, right, before It's before it's an excusable reason for a slip.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 40:45 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Using customer references as sales negotiating chips is flawed
“I don't love it as a negotiating chip because if I'm doing right by your business and if I'm delivering value and if we have a good relationship, you should do it anyway. And if you're only doing it because of a gun to your head, because you promised you'd do …”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 47:03 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Show 16statements(16 left)

The other half of the tape: Dave Kellogg's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 8 times in 4 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 8

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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02320242025episodes it came up in
001.31.52.5320242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 1 mention in 1 episode
2024 7 mentions in 3 episodes 2 per episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better Jan 31, 2024 49m
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