Dave Kellogg

25 statements across 1 episodes · 5 bullish · 7 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Jan 31, 2024 by Dave Kellogg · said 8 times in 4 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Dave Kellogg's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

Mentions by year

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (8)

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Everything said about Dave Kellogg, oldest first

Jan 31, 2024 negative
Insight
Kellogg: Sales reps' sole job is forecasting and closing on time
“You don't make the software. So your only job is to sell the software. You're not a technical resource. You don't help customers deploy. So this is kind of the, you had one job argument, right? Like you had one job. And it's like, let's just remember, that's w…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 37:27 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 negative
Opinion
Kellogg: Startups blaming rising CAC on 'low-hanging fruit' underestimate market size
“I think most startups, when they make that argument to me, I think they're vastly underestimating the size of their market. That if you have a really, really big market, That, that you haven't picked all the low hanging fruit.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 13:25 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Kellogg: Pressuring reps into higher commits ruins sales forecasting accuracy
“Some sales managers use the forecast as a club to kind of push the reps around. Like if I could just in a moment of week is get you commit to one 20, then I can hold it against you for the rest of the quarter. First, I don't think that's great sales management…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 30:07 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 neutral
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Analyzing sector performance is low-hanging fruit for efficient growth
“The low-hanging fruit on efficient growth is a dispassionate, calm analysis of what sectors do we sell to.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 4:02 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Kellogg: Leaders should be unsympathetic to CS VPs missing churn forecasts
“So, so I just think CS for it, I am, if a VP of sales misses their forecast, I'm somewhat understanding. To me, it's I'm not very sympathetic to a VP of CS that misses their forecast, because how is it that you didn't know?”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 26:36 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kellogg: Outbound sales worked significantly better four years ago than today
“I think Outbound actually worked better four years ago than it does today, because I think everyone's doing it, and people are getting flooded with it, and they don't like getting called on their cell phone, they're not answering their regular phone, and you c…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 49:35 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Startups should hire sales reps in groups of three
“So I like hiring three at a time but not for the Hunger Games effect, for the controlled experiment effect.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 31:34 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Kellogg: Founder replacements will increase and favor GTM executives
“If and when you replace a founder, which was extremely unpopular for the last five years, but I think will get more popular going forward, you will tend to replace them with a GTM person.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:02:02 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Kellogg: A good sales forecast gently upslopes to actual sales, not quota
“And a good forecast looks like this, gently upsloping to the actual number you sell. Notice I've never talked about quota. Because forecast is not about quota.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 28:45 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Dave Kellogg: AI sales tools market will consolidate within 18 months
“So if I were a founder of one of these companies, I'd be very aggressive right now to get myself known and established in the market, because this market will organize, right? We're in the chaos phase of the market, and so from the vendor side, this will organ…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:05:32 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Kellogg: Sales reviews must be split into three distinct, specialized calls
“In my world, there's three different types of calls. Let me just define them. I think the There's a forecast call, there's a pipeline scrub, and there's a deal review. Purpose of forecast call is to come up with a forecast. Should be all numbers. One of my sid…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 34:51 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Keeping non-performing sales reps is harder than firing them
“The hardest case is not firing somebody who's not selling. That's easy. The hardest case is keeping somebody who's not selling.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 33:30 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 positive
Insight
Kellogg: SaaS operators should calculate CAC ratio with new ARR, not net new ARR
“As an operator, I actually just do it on new ARR. My first order CAC is just, it's not net new, because net new introduced churn. You just made my metric more complicated, right? You made it easier to cheat. You took away some of its meaning.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 10:23 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 positive
Insight
Kellogg: Sales teams must update close plans whenever deal excuses arise
“By the way, everyone should have a closed plan, and every time you hear one of those excuses, it should go on in the closed plan.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 39:00 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Kellogg: Enterprise sales teams must draw a firm line on discounts
“There's a great metaphor, Harry, which is when do you stop squeezing a wet rag? When the water stops coming out, right? So as long as there's water coming out, I'm going to keep squeezing, and then even then, when the water stops coming out, what do you do? On…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 46:15 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Evaluating enterprise sales reps takes six to twelve months
“I would say somewhere between six and 12 months in enterprise.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 32:37 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 positive
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Selling through curiosity works better than trying to act smart
“Selling through curiosity is just amazing, because most salespeople are, in some ways, they're too busy trying to prove how smart they are, be tough and confident, and it's just so humble a place to come from”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 42:38 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 neutral
Insight
Kellogg: Good CAC ratio benchmark is 1.5 for enterprise, 1.0 for SMB
“I'd say a 1.5 or less is in enterprise. I mean, here we are back to your question. The bigger the deals, the more permission you have. So an enterprise, I might go one five. In SMB, I might go one O.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 9:34 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 negative
Opinion
Kellogg: CEOs are negligent if not deeply involved in material quarterly deals
“As a CEO founder, I think you just need to look at the materiality of the deal to the quarter. And like, are you What's the word? But negligence in your duties. Like at some level, if the deal is material of the quarter, you better be in it deep.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 36:28 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 negative
Insight
Kellogg: Expanding across verticals or use cases is high-friction for startups
“The other thing, so I imagine this all as a matrix of vertical versus use case, and every time you're hopping a cell, it's danger, right? Like you know how to sell the custom publishing use case to publishers. Can I sell it to airlines? First, the first one is…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 59:18 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 neutral
Insight
Kellogg: Investors need compound metrics for screening; operators need atomic metrics for fixing
“If I were screening companies I would, I tend to want to use compound metrics. The more I'm trying to fix broken things, the more I want atomic metrics.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 12:19 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 negative
Insight
Kellogg: Deal slips are only excusable due to unforeseen acts of God
“The company got acquired on the last day of the quarter, all purchasing got frozen. Okay! Right? That we couldn't have seen coming, right? But it needs to literally be that level of act of God, right, before It's before it's an excusable reason for a slip.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 40:45 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024
Insight
Dave Kellogg: Churn forecasting is easier than new sales forecasting
“Churn forecasting to me is actually easier than new sales forecasting.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 25:31 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 positive
Insight
Kellogg: Aspiring founders should choose product management over engineering
“If I was advising a young person where to go, if you wanted to found a company in two or three years, I'd say product, not engineering.”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 1:01:22 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2024 negative
Opinion
Kellogg: SaaS NRR dropped to 105%, driven mainly by increased churn
“And by the way, if you asked, like, the most recent study, I think, said one oh five. The reason I said one oh eight is I just can't make my mouth say one oh five. But I think it may have come down from one 20 to one oh five, to be honest, and I think it's thr…”
Dave Kellogg Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 16:22 Dave Kellogg: How to Forecast in 2024 & Why CaC Payback is Flawed and CAC Ratio is Better | E1110 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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