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MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2038
Adcock: The biggest company in 10-15 years will make AI humanoids
“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”
Brett Adcock Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 35:00 This $3B Founder Is The Next Elon Musk (#499)
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Figure demonstration robots run purely autonomously with onboard Helix AI
“This is not tele-operated. For sure not tele-operated. No secret room. these robots are running purely autonomously from an onboard AI policy called Helix running onboard the robot in the torso.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 30:34 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: AI Hardware and Humanoids Will Replace Phones and Computers
“Yes. Every phone and computer was built pre-AI. The, All the hardware we have today in the world needs to be completely rebuilt from scratch.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 31:05 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Meta's AI lab approach is going to collapse
“It's, like, the opposite of what Meta, I think Meta's doing that right now, right? Look at the Meta, like, a super intelligence lab. It's, like, you're putting, like, I mean, it's just gonna, it's just immediately gonna, it's gonna immediately collapse. It's n…”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 1:25:00 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Goods and services prices will collapse toward zero with synthetic agents
“The prices of goods and services are, will slowly start collapsing, basically, anatomically approaching zero.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 1:29:23 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Hundreds of thousands of undetected guns enter US schools yearly
“Several 100,000 guns are being brought into schools in K to 12 every year in the U S and not found.”
Brett Adcock Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 3:00 EXCLUSIVE: $3B Founder Reveals His Next Big Idea | Brett Adcock Interview
FOUNDER'S JOURNAL Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Everyone Moving Fast at OpenAI Is Going or Gone
“Everybody that's moved fast at OpenAI is gonna go, or is gone. Like, and they'll be left with folks that move slow, want to think about safety and all this stuff”
Brett Adcock Nov 20, 2023 ▶ 23:53 Avoiding an OpenAI Fiasco by Successfully Building Your Board
FOUNDER'S JOURNAL Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: OpenAI Will Suffer Unrecoverable Speed and Brand Damage
“And now open AI is going to have a Massive issue with speed and brand and everything else, and it's going to be unrecoverable. They're never going to be a recover from what happened.”
Brett Adcock Nov 20, 2023 ▶ 35:09 Avoiding an OpenAI Fiasco by Successfully Building Your Board
FOUNDER'S JOURNAL Prediction Not checkable as stated
Humanoid robots will not displace labor near-term due to massive shortages
“I think in like the near and medium case, we're really not going to be displacing that much labor. I think what we're seeing every day we're walking into a warehouse or manufacturing a retail scenario, they have a tremendous amount of unemployment. The turnove…”
Brett Adcock May 23, 2023 ▶ 37:48 Building Technology With Infinite Scale
SOURCERY Assertion Supported
Adcock: Figure robots run entirely on Helix vision-language-action model
“You can't write code to make this work. So all of our robots here run on a neural network we call Helix. It's a vision language action model we designed here internally to tell the robot what to go do, to stay balanced, like how to move its joints basically fr…”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 6:06 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Figure's data collection will generalize across global environments
“Our hypothesis now is that we will see enormous amount of positive transfer from the data collection efforts we're doing now into pre-training across, like, basically any environment in the world.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 33:12 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: AGI might be achieved first in humanoid robotic embodiments
“So in some way I think we'll get to at or even beyond human level intelligence in these systems. It actually might be the case that we get to artificial general intelligence first in these embodiments.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 46:22 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Adcock: Figure will reach full lights-out manufacturing where robots build robots
“At some point here, it'll just be like it'll just be full lights out manufacturing. We'll have like robots only building robots and sending out to the world. Robots will be getting into boxes themselves. Other robots will be boxing them up and we'll be shippin…”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 51:02 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Figure is not teleoperating its humanoid robots, says founder Brett Adcock
“We're not teleoperating this stuff.”
Brett Adcock Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 1:55 The $10 Trillion Bet on Humanoid Robots | Figure Founder Brett Adcock · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Humanoid robots are working now in living rooms and commercial settings
“We just want humanoid robots to work, and like, they're working now. It's pretty simple. Like, we're seeing robots to do everyday things. Like, we saw it clean up a living room, do commercial work.”
Brett Adcock Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 2:15 The $10 Trillion Bet on Humanoid Robots | Figure Founder Brett Adcock · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Solving humanoid robotics will create the world's largest business
“It's if you can solve this, it'll build the biggest business in the world by like a large factor.”
Brett Adcock Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 8:21 The $10 Trillion Bet on Humanoid Robots | Figure Founder Brett Adcock · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Supported
Adcock: No humanoid robot has demonstrated 7-10 failure-free autonomous hours daily
“I want to be able to put a robot into a home and be able to do, like, seven to 10 hours of work successfully without failures, with, like, to know, like, with no human intervention and do that every day forever. It's just, like, a hard problem. Nobody's ever s…”
Brett Adcock Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 27:30 The $10 Trillion Bet on Humanoid Robots | Figure Founder Brett Adcock · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
WTF Prediction Held up
Adcock: Paying Passengers Will Fly on Electric Aircraft Within 5 Years
“So I think within the next, like, five years, we'll be taking passengers, like, paying passengers around in, in air spaces here in the world on electric aircraft like this.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 5:37 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: All Aviation Will Transition to Electric in Our Lifetime
“Like, my view is, like, all aircraft, like, all, all aviation, like, all air transport will move electric here. And I think hopefully in our lifetime”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 6:30 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2065
Adcock: Billions of Humanoid Robots Will Exist Within Our Lifetime
“I think we'll, we'll see billions of humanoids on the planet in our, in, like, our lifetime, and they will do everything for us from things at home, like, doing the laundry, washing dishes unpacking groceries cleaning up the house to, we will see billions in t…”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 9:35 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2035
Adcock: True general-purpose humanoid robots are under 10 years away
“I don't, it's not something we'll solve in a month, but it's certainly not something that's 10 years away at this point.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 14:46 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Voice AI will approach human Turing tests within 12–18 months
“We will see in 12 to 18 months voice models approaching human Turing tests, and that's not just from an IQ perspective and information retrieval, it's EQ as well, as we just talked about in naturalness.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 29:56 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Deep Learning Transfers From Logistics Tasks to Folding Laundry
“We are taking data from all the robots, and we are consulting that out to, like, our servers here at Figure, and we're training on that. And what we're seeing now is we're seeing, like, incredible transfer from other robot data that's helping the current robot…”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 36:11 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: AI has exhausted internet text tokens, requiring physical world data
“We've kind of, like we've, like, tapped out all the, kind of, tokens on the internet at this point. So we think, like, being able to explore the physical world is, like, extremely important for, like, overall intelligence.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 39:11 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: OpenAI partnership hurt hiring by creating perception of outsourced AI
“It also became hard, like, hiring people when we had a partnership like that, where folks felt like we were outsourcing our AI, which we weren't doing, and we were actually doing all of it mostly ourselves internally.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 1:09:07 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Adcock: Humanoid robotics will create the world's largest company by far
“My view is that there's going to be a generational company to be built that We'll be able to put, ultimately, billions of robots on the planet that will build, like, the largest company we've ever seen in the world by a long shot.”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 1:11:49 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Robot costs will drop dramatically over the next five years
“You'll have this dramatic reduction here over the next, like, five years as we approach higher volume manufacturing, and then you'll have another step down once robots can fully build robots in the loop together, and you remove all human labor from the whole m…”
Brett Adcock Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 1:30:01 Humanoids Cost as Much as an SUV Now | Nikhil Kamath x Brett Adcock | WTF Online Ep 2 · Nikhil Kamath
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Supported
Adcock: US K-12 schools average roughly one shooting per day
“Basically you have like a school shooting, like basically once per day now in the U S in K through 12.”
Brett Adcock Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 1:28 EXCLUSIVE: $3B Founder Reveals His Next Big Idea | Brett Adcock Interview
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Supported
Adcock: US school shootings increased tenfold over the last decade
“So we basically 10 X the number of school shootings over the last like seven years or so decade.”
Brett Adcock Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 2:12 EXCLUSIVE: $3B Founder Reveals His Next Big Idea | Brett Adcock Interview
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Humanoid robots will be the world's biggest business by far
“A, it's gonna be the biggest business in the world by probably order of magnitude. Half of GDP is human labor, like an order of magnitude bigger than, like, all of transportation market. It's just an enormous industry.”
Brett Adcock Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 3:23 No Priors Ep. 58 | The argument for humanoid robots with Brett Adcock from Figure
NO PRIORS Assertion Supported
Adcock: Figure robots execute tasks and speech end-to-end via neural nets
“We're doing that fully autonomous end to end on our robots now, all bipedal. And the second is we're doing kind of full consumer level manipulation and like speech to speech reasoning. So we're able to Talk with the robot. It's able to understand what we're sa…”
Brett Adcock Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 8:42 No Priors Ep. 58 | The argument for humanoid robots with Brett Adcock from Figure
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Everyone will eventually own a humanoid robot and labor will become optional
“I think over a long enough period of time, Everybody will own a humanoid just to do work for them. And you will choose, like. Labor will be optional, and you'll choose to do work or not.”
Brett Adcock Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 32:26 No Priors Ep. 58 | The argument for humanoid robots with Brett Adcock from Figure
FOUNDER'S JOURNAL Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Adcock: A Board Coup Will Never Happen to Altman or Me Again
“Like this will never happen to Sam ever again. This problem that we're talking about here will never happen to me going forward again.”
Brett Adcock Nov 20, 2023 ▶ 28:44 Avoiding an OpenAI Fiasco by Successfully Building Your Board
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: General Catalyst's Joel Cutler called my Archer pitch disrespectful
“At one point I got introduced to the guy that runs like General Catalyst, Joel. And he called my pitch disrespectful.”
Brett Adcock Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 11:08 This $3B Founder Is The Next Elon Musk (#499)
MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Humanoid home robots will eventually cost several hundred dollars monthly
“We're seeing here is we're seeing the ability to get these robots over time with a high enough volumes cheaper than like a mid price card. And then if that robot can last four or five years before it's fully depreciated the cost should be pretty affordable for…”
Brett Adcock Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 36:39 This $3B Founder Is The Next Elon Musk (#499)
MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock predicts Figure will be valued higher than Cruise and Waymo
“I happen to think this business is probably valued bigger than Cruise and Waymo, which are like, these are a thirty billion dollar free revenue companies.”
Brett Adcock Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 44:36 This $3B Founder Is The Next Elon Musk (#499)
MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Held up
Adcock: Figure will deploy commercial robots with major brands within 24 months
“And I think we can do these over the next like 24 months. We'll have robots in commercial. Applications with like some of the world's biggest brands.”
Brett Adcock Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 44:43 This $3B Founder Is The Next Elon Musk (#499)
FOUNDER'S JOURNAL Prediction Not checkable as stated
Billions of humanoid robots will be manufactured to solve labor shortages
“We think there's an opportunity to manufacture millions and ultimately billions of robotics to help with the world, and we think that's going to have, like, very substantial impact on the economy.”
Brett Adcock May 23, 2023 ▶ 33:50 Building Technology With Infinite Scale
FOUNDER'S JOURNAL Prediction Open · timeframe May 2033
Figure aims to ship one million humanoid robots within 10 years
“I hope within the next, you know, 10 years, we can ship at least a million robots into the world.”
Brett Adcock May 23, 2023 ▶ 47:42 Building Technology With Infinite Scale
SOURCERY Assertion Supported
Adcock: Figure placed the first humanoid robots in White House history
“We got a call asking to be basically the first humanoid group basically ever to put robots in the White House, and so last week we basically had the, you know, first robots in, humanoid robots in history there doing stuff, talking, greeting folks we were basic…”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 3:31 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Supported
Adcock: Project Vulcan prevents Figure robots from falling during leg joint failures
“We've been working on a project we call Vulcan here internally. That basically allows us to lose a single or even multiple joints in the legs and still not fall.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 23:50 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Data is Figure's biggest blocker to large-scale humanoid deployment
“The biggest blocker for us now of going from where we're at today to, like large-scale deployment is data. We need, like, an enormous amount of data.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 31:33 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Supported
Adcock: Figure-Assisted BMW X3 Is First Car Built by Humanoid Robot
“This is an X-III that we helped basically like we basically helped, the robot helped assemble it, and this was the first car in the world built by a humanoid robot that we're aware of.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 35:20 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Figure's current humanoid robots cost well under $100,000 each
“So this was like hundreds of thousands of dollars and the robots we have now are like you know, well under a 100,000 dollars each.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 57:07 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Figure reduced robot costs by 90% between Figure 2 and 3
“We reduced the cost by about 90% between these two.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 59:16 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Open · timeframe May 2029
Adcock: Figure's next-generation hand has as many joints as a human hand
“We recently unveiled our high degree of freedom hand as a teaser, our next generation hand about a month ago. And this hand has basically a human level dexterity, like as many joints in the hand as a human.”
Brett Adcock May 1, 2026 ▶ 1:05:44 Figure's First Full HQ Tour: From the Lab to the Factory Floor · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Supported
Adcock: NASA JPL tech detects concealed weapons from 20 meters away
“There's a technology that was designed at NASA Jet Propulsion Lab about a decade ago that it can detect weapons underneath clothes and in backpacks and bags from, like 10, 20, you know, five, 10, 20 meters away. And they built it for the Iraq-Afghanistan war t…”
Brett Adcock Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 13:40 The $10 Trillion Bet on Humanoid Robots | Figure Founder Brett Adcock · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Figure 3 faults weekly compared to Figure 1 faulting hourly
“Like we used to run that robot here, figure, figure one, and man, that robot could like run for like an hour and it would like fault. We know all the reasons or it would fall or would like, you know, lose power. And, you know, we moved to figure two. I think w…”
Brett Adcock Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 28:01 The $10 Trillion Bet on Humanoid Robots | Figure Founder Brett Adcock · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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