Volatility

topic on 4 shows · 24 statements across 23 episodes

the Knowledge Project Capital Allocators Top Founders the a16z Podcast

24 statements about Volatility, every show

Long credit positions are structurally short volatility due to capped upside
“If you're long credit, you're short volatility. You want things to chug along, Because you don't have upside. Yeah, growth is okay, but you more want stability.”
Kieran Goodwin Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 36:29 Kieran Goodwin – Private Credit Concerns (EP.494)
Baker: Portfolio turnover is driven by volatility, not time horizon
“Turnover should be a function of how often you change your mind, and part of that in any discipline valuation-based process should be about how the stocks move. For me, turnover is mostly a function of volatility.”
Gavin Baker Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 49:59 Gavin Baker – Truth-Seeking and Crossover Investing at Atreides (EP.489)
Jain: Multi-strategy funds make money in high vol, lose during transition
“Generally speaking, in these models, you make more money in a high-vol environment, but you lose money in the move from a low-vol environment to a high-vol environment.”
Bobby Jain Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 46:21 Bobby Jain – Multi-Strategy Hedge Fund First Principles at Jain Global (EP.487)
O'Leary: I would love market volatility despite board aversion
“It's not a popular opinion that I would say to say like a board or a committee, but I would love some volatility.”
Shannon O'Leary Mar 10, 2025 ▶ 58:34 Shannon O'Leary – Relationship Capital Investing at St. Paul & Minnesota Foundation (EP.435)
Sands Capital defines risk as business impairment, not market volatility
“The first type of risk that we're really trying to manage for is the impairment of the business relative to what we were modeling for that business over the next five years. So we call business impairment risk, and we call volatility risk. Volatility. We don't…”
Brian Christensen Jan 11, 2024 ▶ 29:06 Brian Christiansen – High-Conviction Growth Investing at Sands Capital (EP.361)
Marshall: Volatility is the only observable risk; others resist vector math
“The only risk that can be observed is volatility, but I'm managing seven other ones, and we've tried to do it with vector math. You can't.”
Ana Marshall Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 22:51 Ana Marshall – The Climb to Investment Excellence (EP.360)
Muthiah: Hospital leaders intuitively understand volatility better than endowment boards
“People on the hospital side of things have to react to economic realities a lot quicker given what they do and how complex it is and pushing costs through and reimbursement. The conversations around volatility are a lot different. They inherently understand vo…”
Muthu Muthiah Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 27:23 Muthu Muthiah - Inefficiency and Innovation at CHOA (EP. 339)
Griffith: Event-driven investors are inherently short volatility
“When you're an event driven investor, you're short volatility. Volatile events makes events take longer. It reduces the probability of certain events happening.”
Reade Griffith Oct 17, 2022 ▶ 29:50 Reade Griffith – Managing Assets and Partnerships at Tetragon (Capital Allocators, EP.276)
Emerging market investors are rarely compensated for currency volatility risk
“I think that the question of being an investor in the emerging markets comes down to a very simple question. Are you getting paid for the risk of the volatility? And at times, frankly, the answer is yes. But I'd say generally, our experience suggests that you'…”
Sam Zell Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 46:12 Sam Zell – Common Sense and Uncommon Profits (Capital Allocators, EP.253)
Drogen: Traders accustomed to small daily swings cannot survive crypto volatility
“As a trader, you have to completely reframe your own emotions relative to vol, because this market, it's insane in terms of the amount of vol, and if you're used to your portfolio swinging around one or two percent a day, like, you are not gonna make it here.”
Leigh Drogen Jun 2, 2022 ▶ 49:58 Leigh Drogen – Quantamental Approach to Crypto at Starkiller Capital (Manager Meeting, EP.32)
Lewinsohn: Hedge funds must trade volatility, not absorb it
“A hedge fund at its core is not supposed to absorb volatility. It's supposed to be able to trade volatility and make money even in periods of volatility.”
Jonathan Lewinsohn Aug 5, 2021 ▶ 35:53 Jonathan Lewinsohn – Diameter Capital Partners (Manager Meetings, EP.05)
Fisher: Central bank volatility suppression has made anti-correlation hedges rare
“Central banks, in their zeal to destroy volatility, they've created so much correlation that it's really hard to find anti-correlation is kind of a way to think about it.”
Adam Fisher Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 44:26 Adam Fisher – Blending Global Macro and Real Estate at Commonwealth Asset Management (First Meeting, EP.21)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Perpetually elevated volatility has only occurred in the 1930s
“The only time we've ever seen sort of perpetually elevated Volatility was back in the 19 thirties. So right after the crash of 1929.”
Michael Mauboussin Mar 23, 2020 ▶ 14:54 Michael Mauboussin – Consilient Observations in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.127)
Marks: Risk Is Probability of Bad Outcomes, Not Volatility
“Now, I don't think volatility is risk. I think risk is the probability of bad outcomes.”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 1:02:38 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
a16z Insight
Armstrong: Volatility is a feature for investors but a bug for payments
“Volatility is actually a feature if you want to be an investor, but it's a bug if you want to just have a medium of exchange.”
Brian Armstrong Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:52 a16z Podcast | Building Crypto, from Vision to Reality
a16z Insight
Griffin: Financial risk stems from ignorance, not market volatility
“Risk doesn't come from volatility. Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.”
Tren Griffin Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 30:00 a16z Podcast | The Best Way To Be Smart ... Is To Not Be Stupid
Baumgartner: Markets Are Turbulent Nonlinear Systems, Not Just Volatile
“When you incorporate behavior and psychology into markets, the best description is not something that's volatile, but it's something that's turbulent. And turbulence is different than volatility because it's a nonlinear dynamical system, right? You see phase t…”
Mark Baumgartner Nov 26, 2018 ▶ 59:00 Mark Baumgartner – Luck, Risk and Uncertainty at the Institute for Advanced Study (Capital Allocators, EP.77)
Selvala: Volatility serves three basic functions: yield, risk reduction, and leverage
“We sort of think about volatility as a way to do three basic things. One is to add yield, and two would be to reduce risk, and three would be to add leverage.”
Rick Selvala Feb 26, 2018 ▶ 8:58 Rick Selvala - Harvesting Volatility (Capital Allocators, EP.41)
Selvala: Buying volatility when VIX is at 9 to 11 is historically attractive
“Well, what I would say is if your view is that volatility is cheap and arguably when the VIX is around 11, 10, nine, it is cheap. You look at any, You know, it's a mean reverting asset and you look at over time that tends to be pretty, pretty attractive level …”
Rick Selvala Feb 26, 2018 ▶ 26:21 Rick Selvala - Harvesting Volatility (Capital Allocators, EP.41)
Duke: Investors mismanage risk by overestimating their edge and underestimating volatility
“We're bad at it for a couple of reasons. One is that we generally overestimate our edge. Let's be honest. We think we're better than we are. We also underestimate the vol. I mean, we tend to. So we generally think we need a lot less money than we do, and then …”
Annie Duke Feb 5, 2018 ▶ 50:17 Annie Duke - Improving Decision Making [Capital Allocators, EP.39]
Spitz in Jan 2018: Volatility Is the Only Cheap Market Asset
“I don't see any overwhelmingly cheap assets today other than volatility, and I think volatility is cheap, but I have no sense whatsoever as to when it may turn”
Bill Spitz Jan 22, 2018 ▶ 43:19 Bill Spitz – Seasoned Commodore (Capital Allocators, EP.37)
Mauboussin: Low Market Volatility Suppresses Active Fund Manager Performance Differentiation
“The small variance and performance of active managers, part of that's also a function of the volatility being low. And we can demonstrate that. So, you know, it's very difficult to distinguish yourself either favorably or unfavorably when the volatility of the…”
Michael Mauboussin Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 43:59 Michael Mauboussin – Active Challenges, Rational Decisions and Team Dynamics (Capital Allocators, EP.36)
Marchese: Shorting market volatility captures premium that beats market
“There's a really big premium over time of shorting that volatility, and you're basically, you're, you can beat the market just because of that, that insurance premium.”
Julian Marchese Aug 19, 2017 ▶ 11:41 756: Meet The 21 Year Old Who Runs His Own $5m Hedge Fund
Perold: Volatility fails as a risk measure for individual asymmetric securities
“At the individual security level, volatility need not be a good measure of risk at all. You know, a strategy that sells options and has limited upside and big downside, you're not going to detect that from volatility statistics.”
Andre Perold Apr 13, 2017 ▶ 22:53 André Perold – Academic Practitioner (Capital Allocators, EP.02)

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