Treasuries

topic on 5 shows · 16 statements across 13 episodes

American Optimist No Priors Invest Like the Best Capital Allocators All-In

16 statements about Treasuries, every show

NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Private credit, treasuries, and deposits will all be tokenized
“Private credit and treasuries and bank deposits, like everything's going to get tokenized. And it, it's just going to mean that financial services is going to have modern, modern rails to run on.”
Brian Armstrong Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 20:10 Coinbase’s Everything Exchange: Agentic Finance, Stablecoins & Tokenization with CEO Brian Armstrong
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Contradicted
Emil Michael: Office of Strategic Capital Loans Cost Treasuries Plus 100 Bps
“So it's a basically treasuries plus a hundred bips.”
Emil Michael Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 21:53 America’s $700 Billion Defense Tech Rebuild
Escobari keeps 95% of his net worth in General Atlantic and Treasuries
“I have 95% of my net worth in that product, and I sleep well at night. I have a vastly undiversified portfolio of, you know, two assets, GA and treasuries.”
Martin Escobari Nov 25, 2025 ▶ 18:00 Inside General Atlantic: How a $100B Growth Equity Firm Invests · Invest Like The Best
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Forman: Tether Was the Seventh-Largest Buyer of US Treasuries Last Year
“Tether alone was the seventh largest buyer of treasuries in the past year.”
Ben Forman Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 47:34 Ben Forman – Unlocking Blockchain's Potential (EP.441)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Aitken: Treasury basis trade did not cause the bond reversal
“It is not the treasury basis trade unwinding. The treasury basis trade this week has been fine. The treasury basis trade does not explain what happened.”
James Aitken Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 38:09 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Aitken: Rumors of China dumping US Treasuries are incorrect
“Nor, as Louis would attest, does the convenient but incorrect rumor that, oh, China must be bashing treasuries. Just ignore that.”
James Aitken Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 38:19 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Aitken: Private sector lacks balance sheet capacity to intermediate Treasuries
“There is not enough private sector balance sheet capacity to intermediate this enormous stock of treasuries. It's a capacity problem.”
James Aitken Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 39:18 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Morehead: Baylor Adds 5% Opportunity Cost to Treasury Yields for Hurdle Rate
“If that's the case, then the opportunity cost is five percent a year, and so that's how we think. You have treasuries that are two-year, five-year treasuries that are five percent plus five percent, and the hurdle's 10%.”
David Morehead Apr 22, 2024 ▶ 38:15 David Morehead – Top Down Allocation at Baylor (EP.381)
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Calacanis: $127B flowed into Treasury funds in 2023, pacing record year
“One hundred and twenty seven billion this year into funds that invest in treasuries on pace for a record year.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 1:11:56 E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO
Balaji: US Treasuries are the toxic waste of this financial cycle
“Basically, the toxic waste of this cycle is treasuries, okay?”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 13:28 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US will inflate away debt or suspend convertibility instead of defaulting
“Well, basically what'll happen in my view is they will they won't, they may not default on it long-term in the sense of pay cash, but they'll inflate it away to such a point. Or make it illiquid or suspend convertibility.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 55:54 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: US banks hold $620B in unrealized treasury losses
“So the Wall Street Journal right now is reporting that US banks have 620 Billion of unrealized losses just on treasuries.”
David Sacks Mar 11, 2023 ▶ 52:48 E119: Silicon Valley Bank implodes: startup extinction event, contagion risk, culpability, and more
Textron pension replaces physical Treasuries with futures for liquidity
“So we have been actually just taking treasuries out of the market and replacing them with futures. Futures being more liquid than treasuries in one of these taper tantrums.”
Charles Van Vleet Nov 28, 2022 ▶ 38:52 Charles Van Vleet – Thinking Differently with Pensions at Textron (Capital Allocators, EP. 283)
Ellis: Corporate bonds fail to compensate for risk compared to US Treasuries
“And why aren't there any corporate bonds? Because the pricing of corporate bonds compared to treasuries doesn't reward for the risk that's being taken.”
Charlie Ellis May 31, 2021 ▶ 38:28 Charley Ellis – The Magic of David Swensen (Capital Allocators, EP.197)
McCusker: NEPC 10-year assumptions project 6-7% equity returns versus 0.6% Treasuries
“We just went through a full rerunning of all of our assumptions, and we've got equity assumptions in the sixes, the sevens, even higher for emerging markets, and then a treasury assumption at . Six percent right in line with the yield right now. And you run th…”
Tim McCusker Apr 30, 2020 ▶ 4:33 Tim McCusker – Advising Through a Crisis at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP.135)
Marshall: Managing a Treasury Book Generates Negligible Alpha
“There's not much alpha you can add managing a treasury book. So we don't really bother doing too much of that, so we have an index treasury book.”
Ana Marshall Oct 21, 2019 ▶ 32:52 Ana Marshall – Applied Direct Investing at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.111)

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