Forecasting
topic on 5 shows · 7 statements across 7 episodes
Startups For the Rest of Us 
Latent Space 
Lenny's Podcast 
the Green Blueprint 
Top Founders
7 statements about Forecasting, every show
Byun: Research, not probability modeling, is the bottleneck in forecasting
“The thing that's blocking people from making interesting predictions about important events in the world is less kind of on the probabilistic side and much more on the research side.”
Palazzi: LLMs could soon replace traditional time-series forecasting algorithms
“It's quite possible that in the not too distant future, you might actually do forecasting by asking an LLM, can you predict the next few weeks of data? Whereas to date, you would use very different algorithms for that.”
AI is critical for complex distribution grid forecasting as EVs expand
“That is a level and complexity of forecasting that we do not have today in the distribution grid, and AI is going to be a really powerful tool to unlock that.”
Andersen: Standard CRM and Planning Forecasts Ignore Macroeconomic Shifts
“The majority of the forecasting is done in a planning software or in a CRM. And the problem with those forecasts is that they do not consider what is happening in the market or the economy.”
Mansuri: Counteract founder optimism bias by using predetermined quarterly checkpoints
“You got to forecast a year, but then set milestones, checkpoints, and kind of make predetermined decisions that allow you to avoid the bias of then walking into Q one and being like, oh, we missed in Q one, but no, no, we're really going to hit it in Q two. Yo…”
Wensing: Financial forecasting exists to model variability, not exact certainty
“We don't forecast to be precise and certain about things in some cases. We forecast to accept or maybe come to grips with the variability in some of these things”
Barrett: Achieving actual profitability matters far more than predicting it
“Predictability is not nearly as important as people make it out to seem, because, like, predictability is always good until suddenly something changes and it's no longer predictable. You're fooling yourself if you think you know the future. I think it's much b…”