The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 249 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Justin Larkin: CMS aims for 100% Medicare value-based care by 2030
“Just this last year, we heard from CMS, which is the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, that they're aiming to have all of Medicare beneficiaries cared for by providers in value-based care models by 2030.”
John Riccitiello: Global video game players easily exceed three billion
“It's actually a lot larger that some of that excludes a big chunk of China and India and a couple of the markets. Easily north of three billion.”
Dixon: Global smartphone users will grow to eight billion
“We've got, what is it, like three to four billion people with smartphones. That's going to go to eight billion.”
Caldbeck: Physical grocery stores will endure for at least 20 years
“I think grocery stores are here for the very, very long term. Very long term meaning next 20 years at least.”
Ehrensvärd: Yubico will integrate YubiKey hardware security into credit cards
“So we will put YubiKey functionality into credit cards, and it's basically because it's a small chip. It's basically like a chip, and the software on the chip, it's not big. You know, that can be integrated into a lot of different things. We will see it in the…”
Rachleff: Poor market timing costs average investors 4% annually
“Dalbar, an organization, found that this behavior of buying when the market goes up and selling when it goes down costs the average investor about four percent annually.”
Arthur Brooks: Every additional child lowers immediate parental happiness
“Nobody has kids because kids bring immediate happiness. On the contrary, you find all the evidence suggests that every additional kid you add to your house lowers your happiness.”
Snyder: Genome sequencing will be standard healthcare within 10 years
“You know, I think 10 years from now, everybody's gonna raise their hands, right? That's gonna just part of healthcare”
Leibert: Mainframes will remain core enterprise infrastructure for 20 to 30 years
“So I think we're not going to see a rip and replace. I think we're going to see more and more systems built around the old systems. And for some of the core infrastructure, I think even in 20 or 30 years, we'll still have mainframes.”
Smith: 2000s US Manufacturing Job Losses Coincided With Productivity Slowdown
“It wasn't until the 2000 that absolute manufacturing employment started to fall and that manufacturing employment started to fall along with manufacturing productivity slowing down.”
Allison: US threatened war with Canada to acquire Alaskan territory
“And so we basically threatened war with Canada unless they gave us this territory, and we took it.”
Carlson-Wee: Crypto assets are uncorrelated with traditional markets and commodities
“This is uncorrelated with Oil, gold, emerging market currencies, the equity markets, bonds, it's really just uncorrelated with everything else, and it's because it's a totally new phenomena.”
Ott: Early detection increases cancer survival rates to 97% versus late-stage treatments
“The best drugs that we have today to treat cancer called immunotherapies only give you about 30 to 40% chance of five-year survival in treatment. These are the best drugs that we have. Chemotherapy and radiation give you less than 20%. Chance of survival. On t…”
Sundararajan: Demographic bias directly reduces worker ratings on gig platforms
“If you happen to belong to a particular category where people are biased against you your ratings are gonna suffer as a consequence, and so that's something that we have to think about carefully.”
Grant: Nobel laureates are 22 times more likely to perform or act
“On average, Nobel Prize winners are twice as likely to play a musical instrument. They're seven times as likely to paint and do other kinds of art. They're 12 times as likely to write creative fiction, poetry, and they're 22 times as likely to act, dance, or p…”
Butterfield: Email will survive for at least three to four decades
“Email crosses organizational boundaries very well. It's how we set up this conversation. It's how people like us will set up conversations like this 10 years from now in the future. And internet, I mean, sorry, email will probably be around You know, three, fo…”
Evans: Apple will eventually release a $300 iPhone
“They could do a 300 dollar phone now that would be a great phone. It would, you would not feel, ah, Johnny, I wouldn't feel ashamed of it. I feel like that's a question of when rather than if”
Gorham: US farming population will drop from two percent to one percent
“It used to be that a hundred percent of the country farmed and now two percent of the country farms, and it's going to be one percent before we know it, right?”
Every private and public investor in Square made money despite valuation debates
“If you look back at the investors in every single round of private, as well as in the IPO, they all made money.”
Quantum computing will render standard public key encryption obsolete
“The current state of affairs is that when we communicate, more often than not, the public key encryption that we use is based on the inability of computers to find factors for large numbers. And so breaking or creating codes will no longer be possible using th…”
Ashatosh: Dell will eventually be run by a CFO
“As far as that market is concerned, I think, you know, you will end up having a CFO be the leader of Dell.”
Alex Rampell predicts bank tellers will be obsolete within 15 years
“You know, no, no disrespect to the profession of the bank teller, but it's probably not one that's going to be around in 50 years, much less 15.”
Thierer: First Amendment would block European-style 'right to be forgotten' laws
“If someone in the States tried to do something like the Europeans are doing with right to be forgotten, we could beat that back with the First Amendment in the US. We could say, no way it doesn't jive with our First Amendment.”
Evans: Satya Nadella explicitly signaled that Xbox is no longer Microsoft's core
“It's not just the death of Windows everywhere, it's also that Satya said very clearly that the Xbox isn't core anymore.”
Human genome sequencing costs will soon drop to $40, predicts Vijay Pandey
“It's now like a thousand dollars now, 40 dollars soon.”
Fenty: D.C. Police Department was using Palantir during his administration
“She said that she used Palantir a lot, and this, I mean, she, I was obviously using it when I was in office too”
Evans: Chinese smartphone makers lack distribution to enter the US market
“There's a bunch of Chinese people who are making very interesting, well-designed phones, but they are, don't, they don't have global distribution, they don't have the ability to come to market in the US for the next couple of years”
Amazon and Yahoo failed to compete with early eBay auctions
“Both launched auction businesses to compete with eBay early in the day. And both quickly got a lot of supply because they listed it, there were no listing fees. They required no economics. And no consumers went. Both businesses were DOA, and they abandoned it …”
George: Top decile venture outcomes have increased from $10B to $40B
“The top decile outcomes, I think, used to be ten billion and now they're like forty billion.”
Johnson: Feeding camera poses natively during pre-training is unprecedented
“It also works on camera poses as a native input to the model, which I don't think anyone's ever done at the pre-training phase before.”
Bancel: Moderna's Marlborough facility will produce tens of thousands of doses
“The facility will be able to make the one in Marlboro, Mass, tens of thousands of doses.”
Anthropic's Next Financial Disclosure Will Likely Show Re-Accelerating Revenue Growth
“And then, you know, I would hypothesize, because they've executed well, probably the next disclosure is a re-acceleration, and then there's always this kind of funny game between the frontier model companies.”
Kalanick says former Uber CFO and engineering VP joined Atoms
“Gautam, who was the CFO over at Uber has joined Adams. That's a recent thing. Ganesh, who was A VP or SVP of engineering over at Uber has just joined Adams”
Caldwell: Mariana Minerals aims to build 10 projects in the next decade
“We're building a lithium refinery in Texas with the goal of building 10 projects in the next 10 years.”
Isaacman: NASA will launch nuclear-powered octocopter to Titan in 2028
“You've got a octocopter, nuclear-powered octocopter that we're launching to Titan in twenty-twenty-eight searching for life.”
Luzsicza: SpaceX skipped the V2 design cycle on Starship Booster
“Booster was a little bit ahead of ship, the ship team in terms of their V three design. They kind of skipped V two for Booster. They went from V one to V three.”
Moore: Top-Revenue Prosumer AI Apps Generate Minimal Web Traffic
“Some of the consumer prosumer AI apps that are generating the most revenue have very few, very little usage on web. It's almost all in kind of a dedicated app.”
Magic Johnson: Washington Commanders valuation will rise with new stadium
“The Commanders is two years old now. Six billion, and now that the new stadium, that's gonna go even up higher.”
Horowitz: Dr. Dre requested a photo with a police Cybertruck
“When we did Paid in Full Dr. Dre, you know, famous for, you know, the song, ah, Fuck the Police, saw the Cybertruck parked out front and took a picture with the cops in front of the Cybertruck at his request.”
Nuzhna: US will remain the primary exit market for biotech companies
“And even if Chinese population will continue to grow, US will still remain the biggest market for biotech companies to exit at.”
Wang: AI image models will adopt multi-hour test-time compute when needed
“Yeah, absolutely. If it's necessary, yeah.”
Altman expects natural gas to dominate short-term U.S. baseload energy growth
“I expect in the short term it will be, most of the net new in the US U.S. Will be natural gas. Relative to at least base load energy.”
Fedus: Periodic Labs will build AI co-pilots for space and defense
“Basically co-pilots for engineers, researchers in advanced industries. So maybe perhaps just being in Silicon Valley, we, you know, we really think about like computer oriented work. Everything is digital. Everything is bits, but there's so many industries. Li…”
Mark Cuban predicts NBA teams will award fewer max contracts
“I think the strategy is changing right in front of our eyes. I think there'll be fewer max players coming up.”
Chime: Emergency supervisors monitor 10 to 20 AI calls simultaneously
“You can have a person in some cities I've selected to do this monitoring. You know, 10 to 20 calls at once.”
Angelopoulos: Human evaluators prefer longer AI responses given equal content
“It's true that people vote for longer responses, you know, preferentially over shorter responses, even given the same contents or well-known human bias.”