The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,321 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 45 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vandenberg: Chili Piper Will Hit $100 Per Share, Making Employees Millionaires
“We have a 150 pipers. We promised them all that we're going to get our share price to a hundred dollars a piece so that they're all millionaires every single one of them.”
Svizovich: Referizer Will Go Public Within Five Years
“A hundred employees to get a rich financial freedom in five years when you go public.”
Holmes: Resonant could reach $100M revenue by 2025 to 2026
“We're thinking that the opportunity set is in the 20, 25, 20, 26 range is where those opportunities will present themselves as the unit volumes continue to expand and the number of devices continue to expand over the course of the next several years.”
DeckRobot needs only five large enterprise customers to become a unicorn
“So we might have ended up having five customers will be more than enough to become a unicorn.”
Murphy: Many SaaS companies trading at 60x ARR will disappoint investors
“Also true that a lot of these companies won't live up to it, and it'll take a year or two before people realize, hey, you know, they're nowhere close to being worth what we thought.”
Mackin predicts $1B in real estate agent ad spend will leave Zillow
“As a result of that, roughly a billion dollars over the next five years of agent advertising is going to look to move To other social or search or video.”
Scalable, law-compliant blockchains will capture the vast majority of crypto value
“Not investing in the only blockchain that prioritizes scale versus trying to build networks and money that operate outside law and regulation is where the vast majority of the kind of value in the crypto or blockchain space will come from.”
Hyde predicts investors will pay a premium for capital efficiency by 2023
“I think in a couple years from now likely the business cycle will be at the stage where capital efficiency is, is people will pay a premium for it.”
Meaningful autonomous trucking will not arrive in the 2020s
“It's not going to happen in this decade in a meaningful way. We'll see the middle mile, which is, you know, like running down the freeway. We'll see robots. That being said, there'll be humans who are being paid to still be on board those trucks for many, many…”
Used car demand will jump over the next two quarters
“So my hunch is that demand for used cars over the next couple of quarters is going to jump because of everything that's kind of going on.”
Zickerman predicts MyWiFi Networks will reach at least a $20M valuation
“We don't do very much marketing. We don't do any sales, and I think that once we do that, I will I'll be back on your show and telling you that I got at least 20.”
Alves: Overvalued AI Startups at 200x-300x Multiples Will Fail Within a Year
“For those, I think if we wait a year, we're going to have a couple of those stories because I can see already the companies that are massively overinflated on the valuation and the amount raised in comparison to the revenue. I'm talking about, you know, betwee…”
Friend: Amazon is unlikely to drop S3 prices against Wasabi
“For Amazon to simply drop price, they could do it, but unlike diapers, you know, storage is a multi-billion dollar product for Amazon, and it just seems unlikely to me that they're going to do that.”
Herzog: Firms will not rehire furloughed workers post-crisis
“The firms that are, you know, laying off and furloughing tens of thousands of workers they're not going to rehire them, unfortunately, at the end of this crisis.”
Herzog: A 10% VAT would generate $800B annually for US
“So if we pass a 10% value added tax, that on its own conservatively would bring in eight hundred billion annually new revenue into the system.”
Boufarhat: Hopin will likely be the fastest-growing company in the world
“Whereas with Hopin, I always said, we're probably going to be the fastest growing company in the world when we decide to push out, because we saw the viral effect.”
Booth: The US Dollar Will Decline Once the Liquidity Crisis Ends
“Right now the US dollar is going up in value because governments around are all trying to get cash. Every company is trying to get cash and the US currency underlies 80% of world trade. It's the only reason it's going up in value right now. It will go down on …”
Booth: Interest rates are going to become very negative
“Interest rates are, they're going negative. They're going to be very negative.”
Yanowitz: Fed stimulus cannot drive GDP growth during pandemic lockdowns
“In the 2008, 2009, the pumping money into the economy that actually worked really well. Right. And we got out of that recession. Why? Because it was a financial crisis. So people didn't have enough money. You print more money, you give them more money. They go…”
Yanowitz: Institutional investors will allocate 1% to 2% to Bitcoin as a hedge
“What you're going to have is you're going to say, you're going to have these folks saying,
I need to hedge against the, I need to hedge against our current system because we are in a system that they see completely falling apart.
And so they need to, what they…”
Latka: Class Warfare Will Increase 10x Without Citizen Bailout Equity
“I think you're going to see, like, if you think what's happened in the past four years politically is bad, I think you're going to see 10 times that in terms of class warfare. If the government continues to bail out companies without giving the average America…”
Yanowitz: Bitcoin will reach $20,000 to $100,000 within two years
“My price target for the next two years at a minimum is 20,000 dollars. That's at the low end. At the high end, that's a 100,000 dollars.”
Pompliano: Over $5T in stimulus needed to escape pandemic crisis
“I think it's going to end up being five plus trillion dollars needed to get out of this.”
Pompliano: Fed printing trillions will eventually trigger an inflationary environment
“What I think we're seeing right now is the feds fighting a deflation and you just, they're not going to win right until they start printing trillions and trillions of dollars. And when they do that, we will eventually get back into an inflationary environment.”
Pompliano: COVID-19 mortality rates will be much lower in retrospect
“One of the things that I personally think we're not going to get this for probably three to five years, but we're going to look back three to five years from now. We're going to say the death rates that were originally thought are going to be nowhere near wher…”
Arison: Used car demand will jump as consumers avoid rideshare
“And my guess is that people are also going to try to avoid transportation and avoid ride sharing, right? So my hunch is that demand for used cars over the next couple of quarters is going to jump because of everything that's kind of going on.”
Arison: Market will see 60-to-90-day fundraising freeze from COVID
“I think in practice, there's going to be a bunker mentality out there for 60 to 90 days. And so nothing's going to happen. And I think we all need to bunker down and kind of get ready for that.”
Lagrave: Netflix will eventually have to adopt advertising for monetization
“We believe that Netflix will need to address a monetization fear through advertising at some point, but that's up to the good folks at Netflix.”
Katsoff: 100M smartphone owners will use UpChannel's wallet within a year
“By this time next year, there'll be a hundred million smartphone owners using the digital wallet that we distribute.”
Programmatic advertising will dominate the recruitment ad market within five years
“Programmatic is going to own that market in five years. And it's companies like ours and ICIMS and others that are going to help customers do that.”
Sailthru will never lose money again after turning cash flow positive
“We were cashflow positive significantly in Q one. We'll never lose money again.”
Brexit will only increase the amount of cross-border money flowing on TransferWise
“I mean, if anything, Brexit will only increase the amount of money flowing, I would say.”
Rossler: The biggest future companies will sell to everyone, not niches
“Those that are going to be big in the future are those that are not focusing on a very specific target audience, but those that say, well, our product is so, that's us, it's our product, and we're gonna, we want to sell it to everyone.”
Adams: Constant Facebook Algorithm Changes Will Drive Three-Year Course Retention
“I, I'm confident our customers are going to stay for three years on end, especially in the digital marketing world. Facebook, like Mark Zuckerberg, all the algorithms changing, everyone's heads are exploding. Like Facebook is changing constantly to invest one …”
Mark Grether predicts Sizmek will be the only global competitor to DoubleClick
“I think we are on a good path to establish ourselves as the only one who can truly compete with the Doubled League stack at global scale.”
Halligan predicts the next giant companies will emerge in SMB, not enterprise
“All the competitions up in the enterprise, SMB is where I think the next big, giant companies are going to go.”
Mullenweg predicts 99% of crypto token issuances will go to zero
“One, I think there's a lot of, 99% of those are going to go to zero. There's a, but there's also some in there that'll be category changing and change the world.”
Raanani: Chorus.ai will become a billion-dollar company in 5-7 years
“Is that there's a billion dollar enterprise value company five to seven years from now, that's ours to lose.”
Bogart: Odds of SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF remain very low
“I think it's still quite low. I mean, the SEC has made, you know, a pretty definitive decision about this, that the underlying markets for Bitcoin are too unregulated, and therefore they're not going to allow a regulated product. So it's kind of a circular arg…”
Antonopoulos: Over 90% of ICOs will fail
“More than 90% of these ICOs will fail. That's what I foresee. I mean, it's really obvious.”
Sholom: GameCredits will acquire tens of millions of Indian users in 2017
“And then the marketing efforts that we will run because we're going to acquire Already this year, tens of millions of users in India.”
Di Iorio: Blockchain Will Be More Important Than the Internet
“I recognized way back when that this is going to be more important than the internet, and that was something that just, it hit me with, okay, wait, you can now move value instantly, globally, for pretty much free, just like you'd move an email.”
Di Iorio: Blockchains Will Automate Intermediaries in Law, Insurance, and Beyond
“Every other sector that's used to having these third-party intermediaries can now be automated on blockchains, and you're going to see a massive reduction in costs, and you're going to see us trying to figure out how do we make money when the ways of making mo…”
Kineshanko predicts Bitcoin will hit trillion-dollar valuation if trusted like gold
“If it even becomes a fraction as trusted as gold, it's gonna be worth many billions of dollars, which it already is, and then if it goes beyond, it becomes at least as trusted as gold, people are gonna run to it, and it's gonna be worth trillions of dollars.”
Kineshanko predicts multiple blockchains will act as trillion-dollar digital gold
“I think there's going to be multiple blockchains that act like gold, digital gold, and multiple blockchains worth trillions of dollars.”
Nathan Latka: AI data commoditization means creatives will soon rule business
“This comes back down to why I believe creatives are actually going to rule the world very soon because it's going to be people that do creative things with The perfect data that everybody else has. It's going to ultimately determine who wins, and you can't aut…”