The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 120 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lamm: Colossal grew mammoth hair follicles from elephant stem cells
“We actually have a hair follicles growing in, in where we've taken elephant stem cells and created follicles so that we can grow mammoth hair.”
Lopez: Base Power aims to produce 4,000 home batteries weekly by year-end
“We're not there yet, but we'll be able to produce about 4000 of these units per week towards the end of the year, and so, like, that's like one every few minutes, which is very, very quick, and so,”
Hurlston: Server Copper Wiring Will Move to Optical Within 12 Months
“That run in the back of the servers, and in the next 12 months, we'll see some of those copper wires move to optical.”
Liang: AI inference chip deployments will dwarf training by orders of magnitude
“Because at scale, the number of chips deployed for inferencing will be orders of magnitude greater than whatever you're doing for training.”
Armstrong: OpenAI and Anthropic will not enter regulated financial services
“Ah, well, I don't think OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build all the companies. I think they're mostly focused on building foundational models, which are broadly applicable. But for instance, I don't think anyone thinks they're going to get into regulated f…”
Romo: Helios Reaches GEO in Eight Hours Cheaper Than Falcon Heavy
“Helios gets them to their same, same place they want to go the same day to launch eight hours later. And it's cheaper than a Falcon Heavy, more expensive than Falcon Nine, obviously, because they need to play for, pay for that and the Helios”
Romo: Satellite life extension will never be useful in LEO
“There are some companies that are working on life extension. That's useful in GEO, where satellites are really expensive, and so therefore we should extend their life a little bit. Never gonna be useful in LEO. It's not a, LEO, just replace it. It's easy to ge…”
Feig: Open-source supply chain attacks will surge as AI agents flood pull requests
“Agents are pushing a ton of code. You don't have enough humans to read all that code, and so things are slipping by, things are getting in, and one of them was a vulnerability that gets injected into an open source package that everybody relies on and uses, an…”
Tandon: RFK Jr. toured Commure's AI healthcare stack at Summa Health
“We had RFK Jr. Visit the hospital last week, and we hosted him there, and it was an amazing visit, showing him the transformation with ambient documentation on ComerStack, with ADOC, which is a, an imaging-based company that's essentially automating a lot of t…”
Adcock: Figure's next-generation hand has as many joints as a human hand
“We recently unveiled our high degree of freedom hand as a teaser, our next generation hand about a month ago. And this hand has basically a human level dexterity, like as many joints in the hand as a human.”
Ludwig: Gen-II autonomous vehicle will be commercialized by 2027
“This is being commercialized in, in the next year”
Baszucki: Roblox Will Let Users Deploy Doppelgänger NPC Proxies
“I think we will have the ability for people if they so choose to have a doppelganger NPC that could like be their agentic proxy, go out and do some stuff for them if they want it to, which will be interesting.”
Immerman: Larry Page will be the world's second trillionaire
“Would probably put my money today on Larry Page quarter trillion. Google, Google, or should say Alphabet has like woken up. They own, you know, close to a hundred percent of search. They own a hundred percent of deep mind. They own like mid teens percentage of…”
Laffont: Microsoft lost nearly $1T in value over AI positioning concerns
“Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI.”
Blania: BCI will reach broad consumer applications within 15 years
“Like if you now look at a 15 year time horizon, I think it's going to be a couple of years of research, then a couple of years of medical applications and like hopefully bringing benefits to a lot of people that really need such a technology and then eventuall…”
Franceschi: Brex is growing 40% to 50% and borderline cash-flow positive
“You look at where the company is today, you know, the company is growing, you know, 40 to 50%. You know, borderline cashflow positive.”
Maguire: Direct-to-cell will probably surpass Starlink consumer internet in five years
“And when we go like five years from now, all of my underwriting is, I think direct to sell will be probably even bigger than the original consumer internet business.”
Cliffton: FAA approved Zipline for 1 human per 30 autonomous aircraft
“We've just been approved by the FAA to now fly one human to 30 aircraft.”
Cliffton: Zipline expects US delivery business to grow over 10x this year
“So that grew really fast, and we're expecting that business to grow by more than 10 X this year again.”
Cliffton: Zipline Will Scale to 1M Deliveries Daily in Next Few Years
“You know, Zipline is gonna scale to a million deliveries a day over the next couple years, and that is gonna require us to continue that rate of, like, 15% week-over-week growth for another several years straight, and that's so we're not currently looking to, …”
Ulevitch: The US will have lights-out factories like China
“I think we're gonna have lights out factories the way they do in China.”
Ulevitch: Radiant Nuclear will activate first new-design fueled reactor next year
“I think Radiant is going to turn on the first fueled nuclear reactor of a new design in like 50 plus years. I think they're going to do it next year.”
Dell: Base Power will soon have the largest shared battery aggregation in the US
“And, you know, very soon here we'll have the largest aggregation
by a wide margin.
and you know, we'll, we'll continue to grow quickly and we'll be the largest aggregation of shared batteries in the country.”
Shadbolt: Quantum computers will generate training data for standard GPU models
“With that, we should be able to generate extremely precise data in otherwise unexplored territory of chemical space of material space and use that data to drive to train a conventional machine learning system. I think through that kind of mechanism, we can Pro…”
Oetting: A Human Will Be on Mars by 2050
“I would say we'll be on Mars by 20 50. I don't think we would, I mean, colonized maybe is like, depends what that means, but I think there will be a human on Mars by 20 50.”
Amoruso predicts Sergey Brin will be the world's first trillionaire
“You know, Sergey Brin was just on the All In podcast and talking about, you know, he jumped back into Google and is kind of all in on AI and, you know, he's like one of the smartest people I know. So I would, my bet would be Sergey.”
Levy: Atmo's AI weather models run 45,000x faster than numerical simulations
“Similarly, AI meteorology, like we're utilizing here, is, is now running, in our case together, about 45,000 times faster than numerical models of equal resolution so far, which allows us to do these things like consider the thousands of alternative scenarios …”
Nolan: Next-gen nuclear capacity will scale in the 2030s, not 2020s
“I think we see the big ramp next decade. This decade is about proving out the technologies, getting them licensed, giving them early deployments, and then it's going to be time to scale in the 20 thirties.”
The US unemployment rate will remain around 4% in 2030
“Probably like, fucking four percent. Like, things will revert back to the mean all. Like, humans will always find new jobs except for the four percent of people that just don't want to work.”
Ritter: $500B Stargate project is $100B equity, 75% chips, 25% infrastructure
“Remember, it's equity dollars and debt that's going into this, so five hundred billion is probably a hundred billion of equity, of money going in that is sort of risk money, the rest is building out The infrastructure, 25% of it goes to buildings and cooling s…”
Socher: Single-employee unicorns will not emerge in next few years
“I don't think we'll have in the next few years, like the sort of unicorn with a single, single employee type of situation. I think that will probably take a little bit longer and we'll be non-trivial to get right.”
Radiant's Kaleidos microreactor can become operational within two days on site
“With a reactor like this, that can be quickly moved and doesn't need a lot of infrastructure. You can be operating it in about two days after getting it on a site, which means you can use it for disaster relief.”
Mavrookas: The US naval fleet is shrinking to roughly 290 ships
“The naval fleet that we have today is actually shrinking. So there's right around 290 ships in our naval fleet.”
Ganesh: Fully unmanned fleets of Marauder-scale vessels have never been deployed
“Getting to the point where you have You know, a fleet of these that are completely unmanned just never been done before.”
Mavrookas: China controls 57% of global shipbuilding capacity
“China has 57% of total global shipbuilding capacity.”
Beck: Archimedes engine qualification requires 40 starts and a one-hour burn
“So, you know, the qualification burn time for an Archimedes engine is one hour. So the engine, you know, has to do 40 starts and run for one hour.”
Lamm: Colossal raised $635M total after $400M round oversubscribed
“Yeah, 6:35 total. The last round was supposed to be 200, and it got overscribed to 400.”
Monroe-Anderson: Latest Bandit Interceptor prototype reaches roughly 300 km/h
“This one goes about 40 kilometers an hour faster, so we're doing about 300 kilometers an hour with this drone right here.”
Clements: The market will see $10 trillion companies in the next cycle
“I mean, if you think about it, 10 years ago, there were zero publicly traded companies worth a trillion dollars. Five years ago, there were five companies worth a trillion dollars. As of today, there's 14 with probably three or four private companies that are …”
Rangwalla: S&P 500 Earnings Growth Accelerates to 18% Through 2026
“The S&P, 500 earnings growth through 26 is like 15% accelerating to 18%.”
Baszucki: Roblox Will Require NPCs to Always Be Identified
“Probably they're always identified. Like if you and I are in a virtual space, It probably makes sense. We just always say that's an NPC, like have any kind of environment where we would allow NPCs to impersonate people. So I think that's a principle you'll see…”
Immerman: Waymo is scaling to over 20 new cities this year
“They're scaling to over 20 new cities this year.”
Franceschi: Capital One's acquisition of Brex took just over 40 days
“The whole thing from first sort of serious meeting to sign definitive agreement was a little bit over 40 days.”
Zipline will expand to serve over 20,000 healthcare facilities within 18 months
“We're gonna go from serving about 5000 hospitals and health facilities To over 20,000 hospitals and health facilities in the next 18 months.”
Clark: Neuralink will eventually restore sight and motor function
“I think they'll actually do a number of things that are really helpful on the right side too. You know, things from there roadmap like blindsight, which they're gonna try to restore sight to the blind. You can imagine things that are actually gonna try to rest…”