The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 268 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eric Ries: Vibe coding will cause a Chernobyl-style disaster
“Like this, the vibe coding era is gonna be remembered for a Chernobyl style disaster is my prediction. People are vibe coding software that they do not understand. And it's only a matter of time with all the hype that's being poured into this right now. It is …”
Hastings: Pilot and competitors relied on large manual staffs using QuickBooks
“So pilots, any of the ones we just talked about, They have hired a very large staff that is just using QuickBooks. So they did not start by building their own QuickBooks replacement. They started using QuickBooks, and they started by hiring a lot of people, an…”
Hazarkhani: Autonomous 24-hour digital employees will arrive before 2027
“Yeah, I would be more bullish than that person. I would say that it's actually much sooner.”
Tan: Small YC startups routinely hit $20M revenue in 20 months
“We're seeing routinely YC companies with 10 or 20 people get to 10 or twenty million dollars a year in revenue in 10 or 20 months. And that's like literally never happened before in software.”
Tan: YC startups average 10% weekly revenue growth over 12-week batches
“The average rate at which YC companies grow their revenue during the YC batch, which is a 12 week process, is a 10% per week on average. I mean, some of the batches have been growing 15, 20% a week, but it's been at least 10% a week for more than a year.”
Ries: Developers investing in craftsmanship will run circles around vibe coders
“I think in the long run, people who invest now in craftsmanship, in the understanding of software principles, architectural principles, artistic principles, whatever the thing is, are going to be so much better off. They're going to wind up being like incredib…”
Ben Cera: Polsia loses roughly 50% of users in month two
“So month two last time I checked was also, yeah I don't know how they go to the numbers, though, but anyways yeah, month last time I checked was like, was another 50%.”
Cera: Top Polsia company made $3K–$4K; 10% made at least $1
“Like the max revenue I saw in the company is like a few thousand dollars, like three, three, 4000 dollars, right? There's 10% of companies that made at least a dollar.”
Cheney: Founders have a five-year window to start AI implementation businesses
“I had somebody asked me the other day, how many more years do you think this type of business could be launched and started? And my answer was five.”
Eliason: AI agents will be the internet's biggest consumers within years
“We are entering into a new era of internet commerce and internet like interactions where within a few years, the biggest transactors, the biggest consumers on the internet are going to be AI agents.”
Eliason: Alpha School offers $1M revenue or full tuition refund
“And when I kind of heard about what alpha school was thinking of doing with high school and this new, like high school for founders, where you make a million dollars or you get all your tuition back.”
Cera: Pulsia's AI communicates with investors autonomously via email
“And on the, on this specific stunt, AI today is like talking to my, to investors autonomously via email.”
Cera: AI will progress to autonomous agents trading directly with agents
“There's a second phase that's darker, which is like agents selling to agents because now the AIs know what they want. So that gets weird. I haven't really thought through too much, but in that phase of the business, if it's two LLM selling to each other, servi…”
Gil: OpenAI and Anthropic are fastest companies ever to $10B revenue
“OpenAI, Anthropic, and others are the fastest companies to ten billion dollars in revenue basically ever, right?”
Mohrer: AI puts software abstraction layers and niche SaaS tools at risk
“The notion of abstraction layers, I think are at risk from AI. So what do I mean by that? Whereas I previously like use a SAS tool that does a certain thing to achieve a goal. Now I just asked the AI to build it from scratch. And it's like, I'm not gonna repla…”
Mohrer: Cluelly cloned Wave AI's mobile app and exact $139.99 annual price
“Well, they have a mobile app that looks just like mine. It just does the thing that my app does, and they price it exactly the same. You know, one 39 99 annually is very much alike.”
AI will soon run PressW projects from sales to completion autonomously
“Technically speaking, I think we are approaching the point where our business could go from one sales call to a finished project. With very, very little human in the loop, basically just prompting a nudge.”
Apfelbaum: Tony Robbins sells an AI course with a GPT that "sucks"
“Tony Robbins just came out with an AI course, and then I join his AI course, and he's not teaching anything that's super valuable in there, and people pay a thousand dollars to learn how to create a custom GPT that, by the way, sucks, so I'm in his community, …”
Santos: Zero-cost AI will create media made entirely for self-consumption
“I'm more of a believer that there's going to be sort of new behaviors that you can't see just yet. And this is one of them, right? Which is if cost near zero, then literally everyone can do it. But if everyone can do it, then of course, you know, the, who's go…”
Santos: OpenAI's Sora is reportedly burning $15 million per day
“This is why it's kind of known that, you know, Sora, you know, OpenAI Sora is literally burning, it's been said to be burning fifteen million dollars per day, right, on the app, essentially with people like playing with the video.”
Foster: Zapier will likely always rely on external LLMs
“I think, you know, we will probably always depend on you know, external LLMs for large parts of this.”
Singla: Freshness timestamps boost LLM surfacing probability by 25%
“All LLMs give, there's a 25% probability that your content will get surfaced up better if you map out freshness of content.”
Smith: Over 90% of ChatGPT users still use Google
“Similar web I have data showing that the overlap Basically everyone who uses ChatGPT uses Google. Nearly all of them. I think it's like 90, 90% plus or something. So people are not using it instead of search.”
Smith: TechRadar Is Among Most Cited LLM Domains Despite Affiliate Disclosures
“TechRadar is a good example. TechRadar shows up A huge amount. It's one of the most cited domains in LMs. And you'll see a snippet at the top saying we're an affiliate site and it does really well. There's no evidence that a paid for mention does worse than a …”
Smith: Half of newly published internet content is AI-generated
“We just posted an original piece of original research showing that half of the content published on the internet is generated by AI.”
Lieberman says Tenex's top output-based engineer will make $1M next year
“Our clients pay us based on output, and our engineers are paid on output as well. And the reason that is so valuable is we can hire truly the best engineers I've ever worked with, because just as an example, like our best engineer will make a million bucks in …”
Tan: Anthropic's Claude Code team uses AI to write 95% of codebase
“The Claude Code team apparently writes, 95% of their code is written by Claude, which means very directly that each engineer working on Claude Code themselves is doing the work of 20 people.”
Shim: Microsoft Copilot launch drove 15x surge in Teams usage on Read.ai
“We've seen more than a 15 X increase in Microsoft team meetings that we've measured since Microsoft Copilot launched for teams meetings.”
Shim: 1% to 2% of Colombia's entire population uses Read.ai daily
“We have about one to two percent of Columbia's population using read on a daily basis.”
Shim: Detecting AI-generated content will be almost impossible in 1-2 years
“I do believe in about the next year or two, it is going to be almost impossible to figure out, is this AI generated or not?”
Shim: AI out-of-office gap-filling assistants will arrive within 6-12 months
“That I think is going to happen really quickly. Like I'd say the next six to 12 months.”
Dolezal: GymBeam cut support team from 50 to 3 using Keboola and LLMs
“What they did, they had a 50, 50, 50 people team. With the support user support, like content support, and their biggest problem, like people give them reviews in 16 languages everywhere, right? One of their biggest issues was that people would, you know, actu…”
Herold: Zip2 seed investors deemed Elon Musk 'unbackable' and preferred Kimbal
“And two years later, I was a reference in Elon and their very first round of funding for zip too. They had one employee and I had to explain why to back Kimble must because no one wanted to back Elon cause he was unbackable. He dropped out of aeronautical engi…”
Prediction: Messenger will replace email and websites within seven years
“Like, the potential of bots and of messenger is still by far 90%, 95% of it is untapped. We think that messenger is gonna become the central hub of communication between businesses and customers, and in a few years, three, five, seven years, it's gonna capture…”
Rob Walling: Drip will never become a billion-dollar business
“So yes, drip, I do want to get it bigger, but drip will never be a billion dollar business. It's not, it's just not designed to do that.”
Ries: Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust appoints corporate board directors
“Their company is governed by something called the long-term benefit trust, which is an outside set of trustees that are not like a vague advisory board or like remember the trust And safety counsel that that Facebook famously had and The totally ignored. The L…”
Ries: Every Transformer Paper Coauthor Left Google to Commercialize Elsewhere
“And if you look at the coauthors of that paper has a ton of coauthors, not a single one commercialized the transformer at Google. They all, every single one had to leave and do it elsewhere.”
Ries: 19th-century corporate charters were voided if companies only pursued shareholder wealth
“And in fact, in the 19th century, to convert a company from a mission of doing any specific thing to just, I'm just going to enrich my shareholders, would have been seen as a crime. And your corporate charter would be voided.”
Cera: Polsia charged $1 per task while compute cost $30-$50
“And so, so I would pay, I would, you know, I would charge the customer a dollar a task or something, and then it would cost me 30 dollars, 50 dollars per task.”
Cheney: Replit has handled every software development task thrown at it
“I feel like it's a little bit more accessible to developers, and that's why I just built my processes on top of Replit, and so I'm just so dang good with Replit. I've never run into something that Replit couldn't do, and I've never felt the need to go try othe…”
Eliason: AI agent Felix generated nearly $200K within two months
“And so at this scale where Felix has built, you know, a business that's done almost 200 grand in two months, like now it's starting to make sense to split out some of his capabilities to other agents, but we take a very, very minimal approach to it.”
David: Startups building CLIs for AI agents will win big
“So I, this is, I think, the future, how much it's weird, the futures of all this open Claw and agents and stuff is the CLI. People that are going to build startups with a CLI, Are going to win big.”
Wade Foster: AI agent skills will become cheap commodities like WordPress themes
“I could see skills kind of having, like, a business model like that, where it's like, you could buy, you know, buy one for five bucks, 10 bucks, there would be a bunch of free skills out there. You know, it's, it feels kind of like a very commodity thing at a …”