why aren't all 37 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Errett: The marketing buzzword 'clean' is completely meaningless in beauty
“We don't use the word clean, because that's a word that's a meaningless word. It's a meaningless word, but lots of people use it”
Assertion Contradicted
Amy Errett: Madison Reed removed eight ingredients no competitor has eliminated
“We talk about a better for you formula, and we are very factual about these eight things that we factually have taken out. That nobody else has taken out.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: The IPO window is non-existent for consumer companies
“If you look at the IPO window, it's non-existent for consumer companies.”
Disclosure
Errett: Subscription Beauty Brands Require Massive Pre-Launch Capital to Scale
“Yes, and the idea was since we knew that we wanted it to be a subscription-based business, that building the core of the subscriptions would scale the business faster. So you have to, you need a splash to get above the sort of noise for these women and figure …”
Insight
Errett: Free product trials drive poor retention compared to paying customers
“So we learned trial by free, not so good. If I pay for it, and I love the results, they stay. And that has been a hallmark of the company, high retention.”
Insight
Errett: Most investors only fund things they personally relate to
“Most people invest in things they can relate to.”
Insight
Errett: A scaling business moves at the rate of its slowest executive
“Because when a business starts scaling, but the people that you have there can't scale with it, the business moves at the rate of the slowest senior person. That's what I've come to understand.”
Insight
Errett: Hiring co-founders for likability cost Madison Reed years of growth
“This was Amy's, ah, magical thinking, as I call it, to put something together with a group of people that I liked, which is a bias, by the way, that one hires for liking a lot, has a certain bias that I would suggest. Everyone start thinking about, it's not ju…”
Insight
Errett: Navigating departures requires identifying what motivates the person to be okay
“I think the key about someone's leaving is to figure out what they need, what motivates them to be okay.”
Opinion
Errett: Madison Reed couldn't afford its current locations at new lease rates
“You're never going to get real estate in places that we have it today. We could never afford it today if these were brand new deals.”
Insight
Errett: Strategic acquirers prefer acquiring brands under $100M in revenue
“Many of these strategics buy things that are sub-one hundred million dollars in revenue. When something gets bigger, it becomes harder for them to get the board to approve it.”
Insight
Errett: Consumer investors now demand 20%+ growth alongside profitability
“Now, the world has shifted to wanting both. People want you to grow, you know, at least 20 plus percent top line, but they also require profitability.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Madison Reed reached corporate profitability in 2024
“We are a profitable company now. We crossed profitability last year.”
Opinion
Errett: Hair color demand is recession-proof and pandemic-proof
“I also think that this is a good thing for us to prove that hair color is pandemic proof and recession proof, because that just means it's going to happen no matter what happens.”
Insight
Errett: Great venture capitalists position themselves to get lucky
“As I used to say in venture, a great venture capitalist position themselves to get lucky. You know, they hang around in the right places, and they talk to the right people, and they know enough relationships, and they have the capital, but most of the time the…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Fired as Olivia CEO blindsided in a hotel lobby
“I was fired in a hotel lobby on a Monday morning, completely blindsided.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Howard Schultz urged Maveron to slow investments in fall 2007
“I will never forget it was the fall of 2007, and we had an investment meeting in Seattle, and he walked in and he said, we need to slow down our investments.”
Disclosure
Amy Errett: Comparison trap makes it hard to feel successful
“This is a game I can play my whole life. I can decide that no matter what happens at Madison Reed, it's not big enough. Because there will always be an AI company that's bigger. There will always be a SaaS platform that's bigger. And I have a hard time seeing …”
Disclosure
Errett: Maveron passed on an early investment in Dollar Shave Club
“We saw an investment at Maveron called Dollar Shave Club. And we passed.”
Assertion Supported
Errett: Dollar Shave Club founder Michael Dubin serves on Madison Reed's board
“Michael is now my independent board member at Madison Reed, so.”
Opinion
Errett: Drugstore hair color in 2013 lacked differentiation and quality
“There is no, there's no product differentiation. It's all 10 dollars. It's just an inferior consumer experience.”
Disclosure
Errett Was Willing to Risk $200,000 Before Seeking Seed Funding
“About 200,000 dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Madison Reed's Early Color-Matching Algorithm Delivered High Accuracy and Retention
“And we started to see very early on actually measuring customer satisfaction and net promoter score, whether or not this algorithm Because that's what we built. Machine learned algorithm worked. And that was the moment that we understood we had something here …”
Assertion Supported
Errett: 50% of US women color their hair at home
“50% of women in the U.S. Color at home.”
Disclosure
Errett: Madison Reed struggled to raise capital starting with Series C
“The Series A was highly sought after for some of the reasons that you talked about. And then when we got to the Series C, not so much. And from that period on, it has been a difficult business to raise money for.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Hundreds of stylists asked to buy Madison Reed wholesale for salons
“One stylist started reaching out to us asking if they could buy our color directly from us to apply to their customers' hair in their salons. Like at a whole, at wholesale. Yeah. And that was like, oh, curious. That's curious to me. And it was not like three. …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Madison Reed's $75K Flatiron pop-up was fully booked in five weeks
“And so they said you have 75,000 dollars. Go wild. See what you can do. So we opened a small pop-up in Flatiron. We spent 25,000 of the 75 for out-of-home advertising, like billboards on sides of the buses and phone booths, still phone booths in New York, and …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amy Errett: Madison Reed virtual try-on boosts conversion by 30%
“When somebody uses that, they convert 30% more than any other customer that doesn't use it.”
Assertion Supported
Amy Errett: Madison Reed operates 95 Hair Color Bar locations
“We should allow you to go to any one of our 95 locations and have the same outcome.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Madison Reed received 16,000 inbound customer inquiries daily during COVID
“So our inbound, we were getting 16,000 inquiries a day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Madison Reed never declined post-pandemic and grew every subsequent year
“So our numbers as a company never went down. We kept The doubling of the business and then have grown since then every year.”
Assertion Supported
Errett: Madison Reed uses identical hair color in salons and boxed kits
“Remember, we're using the same box of hair color in our hair color bars that we sell. It is not a different product. It's the same.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Spectrum Was Profitable in Six Months and Never Raised More Capital
“We were a profitable company from the first six months and never became unprofitable, never needed to raise any more money.”
Disclosure
Errett: Spectrum acquisition did not provide enough wealth for desired lifestyle
“I made a good amount of money, but I didn't make enough money to live the lifestyle that I wanted.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Madison Reed's first production run cost about $160,000 for 19 shades
“I think altogether it ended up being, like, maybe a 160,000 of US dollars, because remember, the first run was a limited, you know, minimum order quantity, and when we launched, we only had 19 shades.”
Assertion Supported
Amy Errett: Madison Reed now offers close to 100 hair color shades
“We have close to a hundred today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Errett: Ulta Beauty initiated contact with Madison Reed in early 2017
“In the beginning of 17, Alta contacted us.”