The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 96 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 96 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Fambro: Aptera yields 10 to 12 miles of daily solar charge overcast
“It'll, it'll still charge. It might only charge, you know, 10 miles worth or 12 miles worth or something like that if it's overcast or in a northern latitude, you know.”
Steve Fambro Aug 3, 2023 ▶ 29:15 Powering cars with solar energy with Steve Fambro of Aptera Motors
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Fambro: Aptera's initial launch vehicle will deliver 400 miles of range
“The launch vehicle is going to get around 400 miles range.”
Steve Fambro Aug 3, 2023 ▶ 29:42 Powering cars with solar energy with Steve Fambro of Aptera Motors
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2053
The Palm Oil Market Will Continue to Grow Over the Next 30 Years
“It's efficient, it's productive, so we can make a lot of it, but the reason that it has grown so explosively and will continue to grow over the next 30 years really comes down to the performance of palm oil as compared to other vegetable oils.”
Shara Ticku Jun 15, 2023 ▶ 9:13 Saving the f#$%ing rainforests with Shara Ticku of C16 Biosciences
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
The Global Vegetable Oil Market Will Near $1 Trillion by 2050
“The global vegetable oil industry is going to be almost a trillion dollars by twenty-fifty.”
Shara Ticku Jun 15, 2023 ▶ 38:36 Saving the f#$%ing rainforests with Shara Ticku of C16 Biosciences
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Scholl: Overture will fly Tokyo to Seattle in 4.5 hours
“Just about the longest non-stop route would be Tokyo to Seattle. In four and a half hours, and just pause on that for a second, four and a half hours across the Pacific.”
Blake Scholl Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 30:01 HIBT Lab! Boom Supersonic: Blake Scholl
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2022
Beautyblender's patent was blocked by an existing medical ear cleaner patent
“There was a patent owned by a company that, and this is the craziest thing, and this is why I fought so long and hard about it, but There was a medical ear cleaner that was like, if you can envision, like, almost like a Q-tip, only bigger. It was like, it had …”
Rea Ann Silva Dec 19, 2022 ▶ 46:56 Beautyblender: Rea Ann Silva
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2037
Lore: Rolling Wonder out across the US will take 10 to 15 years
“It's going to take probably, you know, 10 to 15 years to roll it out across the country. It's not something you do in just a couple years.”
Marc Lore Sep 22, 2022 ▶ 25:49 HIBT Lab! Wonder: Marc Lore
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2025
Yolélé’s custom milling equipment reduced fonio processing waste by fifty percent
“Now we not only eliminated the waste because at this stage of Fogno Processing. We still had close to 50% of waste, which is crazy. And now with the machine, they design a machine that not only eliminates that waste, but it really is also processing at a much …”
Pierre Thiam Aug 25, 2022 ▶ 34:49 HIBT Lab! Yolélé: Pierre Thiam
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Drilling a 20-kilometer deep geothermal well will cost just $20 million
“Twenty million dollars. Just twenty million dollars. Okay. Twenty million dollars. Twenty million dollars per well if it's 20 kilometers.”
Carlos Araque Aug 4, 2022 ▶ 25:46 HIBT Lab! Quaise Energy: Carlos Araque
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2048
Vaynerchuk expects to buy the New York Jets in 25 years
“I know how I'm going about doing it, which makes me feel that I'm gonna get it done in 25 to 27 years.”
Gary Vaynerchuk Aug 2, 2021 ▶ 58:05 Serial Entrepreneur: Gary Vaynerchuk
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Apr 2021
The first Bandcamp Friday generated 15 times normal Friday sales
“It was it was about 15 times our normal Friday sales, which for the systems team, for support, for developers, it was a really big effort to keep the site running and have it keep up with all of that.”
Ethan Diamond Apr 8, 2021 ▶ 26:16 How I Built Resilience: Ethan Diamond of Bandcamp
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2021
Charlie Puth refused to soundcheck until venue removed its Confederate flag
“And then we went to Ohio after, and on stage, it was a Confederate flag right behind the stage, and Charlie Puth refused to go on for his soundtracks. Until they took that flag down.”
Troy Carter Feb 25, 2021 ▶ 10:53 How I Built Resilience: Troy Carter of Q&A (June, 2020)
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2024
Newman: It makes me sad that Magic Hat probably won't survive much longer
“I was watching Magic Hat, you know, tank, and, you know, it's continuing to tank, and it's probably not going to make it much longer, and it made me really sad to realize that that's not living in my legacy.”
Alan Newman Jan 25, 2021 ▶ 1:22:46 Seventh Generation: Alan Newman and Jeffrey Hollender
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2020
Charlie Puth refused to soundcheck until a Confederate flag was removed
“And on stage, it was a Confederate flag right behind the stage, and Charlie Puth, Refused to go on for his soundcheck until they took that flag down.”
Troy Carter Jun 6, 2020 ▶ 10:40 How I Built Resilience: Live with Troy Carter
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2023
Davis Smith: Cotopaxi can become a billion-dollar business
“I believe we can go build a billion dollar business.”
Davis Smith May 4, 2020 ▶ 59:25 Cotopaxi: Davis Smith
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2020
Peter Thiel invested $200,000 in Stripe on the spot
“But Peter being such a, sort of, you know, an inveterate contrarian was quite sympathetic to this case, and decided on the spot to make, you know, a fairly material investment of 200,000 dollars.”
Patrick Collison Mar 9, 2020 ▶ 22:02 Stripe: Patrick and John Collison (2018)
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2018
Daymond John's mother took out a $100,000 home equity loan for FUBU
“So she goes out and she gets a 100,000 dollar loan on our house.”
Daymond John Apr 9, 2018 ▶ 29:28 FUBU: Daymond John
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2020
Hyman: Rent the Runway will become a multi-billion dollar company
“I was always confident that I would turn Rent the Runway into a consumer behavior that millions of people did, and that I would build a, you know, I still believe we're going to build a multi-billion dollar company.”
Jenn Hyman Aug 7, 2017 ▶ 45:06 Rent The Runway: Jenn Hyman
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2018
Vaccarella says Bogg Bag reached $1 million in sales in 2018
“So you had three months to hit a million dollars. That's a lot of pressure. Yeah, it was. But we did it. We squeaked it by.”
Kim Vaccarella Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 1:03:59 Bogg Bag: Kim Vaccarella. The $100 Million Business She Almost Abandoned
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Pyjack: Obstacle course racing to replace equestrian at 2028 Olympics
“Yeah, it's gonna be put into the modern pentathlon in twenty-twenty-eight, so it's gonna replace equestrian.”
Jeff Pyjack Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 18:32 Advice Line with David Neeleman of JetBlue
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Stafford: Bobo's will eventually be sold to an acquirer
“So, so yes, we will be selling at some point.”
Beryl Stafford Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 55:00 Bobo’s: Beryl Stafford. A Single Mom Turns a Baking Project into a $100M Business
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2026
McCraney: Cowboy Country Club is in around 100 retail stores
“So last year we started our wholesale business and we're in around a hundred retail stores nationwide.”
Tanner McCraney Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 33:40 Advice Line with Neil Blumenthal of Warby Parker
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2025
The United States now generates the majority of the UK-based Gymshark's revenue
“I know the U.S. So the U.S. Is now, the U.S. Is now the majority of the business.”
Ben Francis Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 1:09:03 Gymshark: Ben Francis. From pizza delivery to billion-dollar fitness brand.
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2011
Rachael Ray mistakenly credited Nutsonline as Nuts.com on air in 2011
“We did ship them to Rachel Ray, and at the very end, she says, in the credit, she says, oh, I really want to thank nuts.com. And we were nutsonline.com, so I was like, oh, man.”
Jeff Braverman Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 46:07 Nuts.com: Jeff Braverman. From Corner Store to Snacktime Powerhouse
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2024
Shufelt: Athletic Brewing is a top 10 US craft brewer by volume
“Yeah, Athletic is top 10 craft brewer's number one biggest non-alcoholic beer breweries.”
Bill Shufelt Nov 18, 2024 ▶ 59:05 Athletic Brewing Company: Bill Shufelt
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2025
Nussbaum: Proto technology can broadcast to thousands of locations simultaneously
“There's everything that you would need to hear, see, and interact with your audience, or audiences, because our technology, you can beam into Thousands of locations at the same time.”
David Nussbaum Mar 28, 2024 ▶ 19:06 “Beaming” people anywhere in the world with David Nussbaum of Proto
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2027
BloomX: Robotic pollinator covers up to 20 hectares in six days
“It can do up to 20 hectares a week in six days.”
Tai Sade Jan 18, 2024 ▶ 17:19 Doing the bees’ work with Thai Sade of BloomX
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Finke: Brimstone commercial plant unlikely to be fully operational in five years
“So in the next five years, we will be working on building a first commercial plant. I think it's probably unlikely that it's, you know, fully operational.”
Cody Finke Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 26:08 Literally unearthing a climate solution with Cody Finke of Brimstone
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2010
Herschel was featured on the cover of the GQ gift guide
“GQ the next day requested one of our bags to be shot in their studio, and we ended up on their, the front cover of the GQ gift guide for that year”
Lyndon Cormack Oct 16, 2023 ▶ 40:21 Herschel Supply Co.: Jamie and Lyndon Cormack
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Swaminathan hopes Malta's first plant begins construction in 2024, operating by 2027
“Yeah, so I hope to start construction on our first plant towards the end of next year with the first fully in service by twenty-twenty-seven.”
Ramya Swaminathan Oct 12, 2023 ▶ 33:44 Unlocking the renewable energy revolution with Ramya Swaminathan of Malta Inc.
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Kitson predicts Babcock Ranch will eventually incorporate as an independent town
“Eventually it will incorporate, it'll be its own town and it will have a, you know, whether it's a mayor or whatever form of government that ultimately is, is here.”
Syd Kitson May 4, 2023 ▶ 37:54 HIBT Lab! Babcock Ranch: Syd Kitson
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2022
Hendricks: Westinghouse gave Discovery Channel a free week on satellite transponder
“Westinghouse, anxious to lease a transponder for the satellite, yeah, the satellite transponder, said, John, you know, we'll donate, we will give you the use of the satellite for a week.”
John Hendricks Jan 17, 2022 ▶ 41:18 Discovery Channel and Curiosity Stream: John Hendricks
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2021
Reffkin: Grandfather left $26M to my aunt and $100 to my mother
“He ended up being very successful. I think he and his family owned real estate in Israel, and, you know, when he died, you know, he gave twenty-six million dollars to her sister, who is, I guess, more obedient to the way that And he wanted her to be. And gave …”
Robert Reffkin Jul 26, 2021 ▶ 8:16 Robert Reffkin: Compass
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2021
Bartolucci took a $65,000 mortgage on parents' house for startup capital
“And we took 65,000 dollar mortgage on my parents' house.”
Carla Bartolucci Jun 7, 2021 ▶ 25:40 Jovial Foods: Carla Bartolucci
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2004
Safeway Picked Up Kodiak Cakes Across 1,200 Stores in 2004
“So in 2004, I had been working on sales, you know, kind of part time and I'd been working with Safeway. And I sent some samples out to this buyer. Her name was Donna Sullivan. She called me and she's like, Hey Joel, we're going to bring your pancake mix in to …”
Joel Clark Dec 7, 2020 ▶ 36:29 Kodiak Cakes: Joel Clark
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2023
Butler predicts The Lip Bar will reach $25 million in annual sales
“Oh yeah, totally. We'll, we'll get there. No, no doubt about that.”
Melissa Butler Nov 23, 2020 ▶ 1:16:16 The Lip Bar: Melissa Butler
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2020
Hartz: Early Eventbrite Handled a 100,000-Person Salsa Congress in Mexico City
“I'll never forget there was a 100,000 person free salsa congress in Mexico City that happened on Eventbrite when we had no business Ticketing. A 100,000 person event.”
Julia Hartz Feb 17, 2020 ▶ 28:46 Eventbrite: Julia Hartz
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Aug 2019
Stonyfield Raised $2.5M and Opened a New Factory
“All told, including paying off the debts, two and a half million dollars, and opened our new factory nine months later in Londonderry, where we are today.”
Gary Hirshberg Aug 19, 2019 ▶ 46:50 Stonyfield Yogurt: Gary Hirshberg (2017)
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2019
Dyson: First licensed cyclonic vacuum in Japan sold for $2,500
“Well, I think considering it was two and a half thousand dollars, it did quite well.”
Sir James Dyson Jul 22, 2019 ▶ 24:47 Dyson: James Dyson (2018)
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Mar 2017
Saban sold over 18 million records in France over eight years
“I started a production company, then I set up my own label, And I sold over a period of eight years that I lived there on my own label, ah, more than eighteen million records.”
Haim Saban Mar 27, 2017 ▶ 12:08 Power Rangers: Haim Saban
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Zimmer wore frog and beaver costumes to market Zimride at Cornell
“One of the kind of funny things we had to figure out was how to quickly market to the college campus, and so one of our early purchases was a frog and beaver costume that we put on. I went to Cornell. I was actually going to Cornell on a recruiting trip for Le…”
John Zimmer Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 48:44 Advice Line with John Zimmer of Lyft
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jan 2024
Raz: Paige and Blake Mycoskie founded their companies on the same day
“By the way, according to Paige's mom, Paige and her brother Blake started their respective companies on the very same day in 2006, February 26, to be exact, which also happens to be Paige's birthday.”
Guy Raz Jan 1, 2024 ▶ 1:07:38 Aviator Nation: Paige Mycoskie
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2023
Simmons: Writing 10,000 to 11,000 words weekly at ESPN caused burnout
“I was writing 10, 11,000 words a week. And it was unsustainable. Like I really started to burn out and Jimmy came along.”
Bill Simmons Feb 13, 2023 ▶ 31:12 The Ringer: Bill Simmons
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2022
DFJ led Kana Communications' $700,000 Series A round in 1996
“Our series A led by Draper, Fisher, Jurvetson, DFJ. We closed that round in, I believe it was 1996, and 700,000 dollars.”
Michael Horvath May 2, 2022 ▶ 30:55 Strava: Mark Gainey and Michael Horvath
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2022
Raz: Over 10% of 'How I Built This' Founders Started in Consulting
“A significant percentage of people who've been on the show, I'd say more than 10%, worked in consulting for a couple years early in their careers, where you, you're basically paid to learn everything about a business in order to give them advice for how to be …”
Guy Raz Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 10:30 M.M.LaFleur: Sarah LaFleur (2020)
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2020
Boyd: The Laundress trademarked its brand in every country it sold in
“We early on had all our name trademarked in any country that we were sold to. So we owned the licensing and the trademarks.”
Lindsey Boyd Jul 27, 2020 ▶ 53:41 The Laundress: Lindsey Boyd
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2020
LaFleur: M.M.LaFleur registered in Delaware in June 2011 at WeWork
“I signed for a WeWork office starting May one, back when WeWork was still very small. I think they had, like, two buildings in New York. And then I officially registered as a LLC June one in Delaware.”
Sarah LaFleur Feb 3, 2020 ▶ 20:54 M.M.LaFleur: Sarah LaFleur
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2016
Wurwand: California had only about 2,300 licensed skincare professionals when IDI launched
“So I called the State Board of Cosmetology in Sacramento, California, and I called them and I said, do you have a list of everyone licensed in the state of California to perform skincare treatments? And it was a very short list. It was like 2300 names.”
Jane Wurwand Oct 24, 2016 ▶ 12:54 Dermalogica: Jane Wurwand
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