why aren't all 96 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 96 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Fambro: Aptera yields 10 to 12 miles of daily solar charge overcast
“It'll, it'll still charge. It might only charge, you know, 10 miles worth or 12 miles worth or something like that if it's overcast or in a northern latitude, you know.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Fambro: Aptera's initial launch vehicle will deliver 400 miles of range
“The launch vehicle is going to get around 400 miles range.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2053
The Palm Oil Market Will Continue to Grow Over the Next 30 Years
“It's efficient, it's productive, so we can make a lot of it, but the reason that it has grown so explosively and will continue to grow over the next 30 years really comes down to the performance of palm oil as compared to other vegetable oils.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
The Global Vegetable Oil Market Will Near $1 Trillion by 2050
“The global vegetable oil industry is going to be almost a trillion dollars by twenty-fifty.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Scholl: Overture will fly Tokyo to Seattle in 4.5 hours
“Just about the longest non-stop route would be Tokyo to Seattle. In four and a half hours, and just pause on that for a second, four and a half hours across the Pacific.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2022
Beautyblender's patent was blocked by an existing medical ear cleaner patent
“There was a patent owned by a company that, and this is the craziest thing, and this is why I fought so long and hard about it, but There was a medical ear cleaner that was like, if you can envision, like, almost like a Q-tip, only bigger. It was like, it had …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2037
Lore: Rolling Wonder out across the US will take 10 to 15 years
“It's going to take probably, you know, 10 to 15 years to roll it out across the country. It's not something you do in just a couple years.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2025
Yolélé’s custom milling equipment reduced fonio processing waste by fifty percent
“Now we not only eliminated the waste because at this stage of Fogno Processing. We still had close to 50% of waste, which is crazy. And now with the machine, they design a machine that not only eliminates that waste, but it really is also processing at a much …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Drilling a 20-kilometer deep geothermal well will cost just $20 million
“Twenty million dollars. Just twenty million dollars. Okay. Twenty million dollars. Twenty million dollars per well if it's 20 kilometers.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2048
Vaynerchuk expects to buy the New York Jets in 25 years
“I know how I'm going about doing it, which makes me feel that I'm gonna get it done in 25 to 27 years.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Apr 2021
The first Bandcamp Friday generated 15 times normal Friday sales
“It was it was about 15 times our normal Friday sales, which for the systems team, for support, for developers, it was a really big effort to keep the site running and have it keep up with all of that.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2021
Charlie Puth refused to soundcheck until venue removed its Confederate flag
“And then we went to Ohio after, and on stage, it was a Confederate flag right behind the stage, and Charlie Puth refused to go on for his soundtracks. Until they took that flag down.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2024
Newman: It makes me sad that Magic Hat probably won't survive much longer
“I was watching Magic Hat, you know, tank, and, you know, it's continuing to tank, and it's probably not going to make it much longer, and it made me really sad to realize that that's not living in my legacy.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2020
Charlie Puth refused to soundcheck until a Confederate flag was removed
“And on stage, it was a Confederate flag right behind the stage, and Charlie Puth, Refused to go on for his soundcheck until they took that flag down.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2023
Davis Smith: Cotopaxi can become a billion-dollar business
“I believe we can go build a billion dollar business.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2020
Peter Thiel invested $200,000 in Stripe on the spot
“But Peter being such a, sort of, you know, an inveterate contrarian was quite sympathetic to this case, and decided on the spot to make, you know, a fairly material investment of 200,000 dollars.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2018
Daymond John's mother took out a $100,000 home equity loan for FUBU
“So she goes out and she gets a 100,000 dollar loan on our house.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2020
Hyman: Rent the Runway will become a multi-billion dollar company
“I was always confident that I would turn Rent the Runway into a consumer behavior that millions of people did, and that I would build a, you know, I still believe we're going to build a multi-billion dollar company.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2018
Vaccarella says Bogg Bag reached $1 million in sales in 2018
“So you had three months to hit a million dollars. That's a lot of pressure. Yeah, it was. But we did it. We squeaked it by.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Pyjack: Obstacle course racing to replace equestrian at 2028 Olympics
“Yeah, it's gonna be put into the modern pentathlon in twenty-twenty-eight, so it's gonna replace equestrian.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Stafford: Bobo's will eventually be sold to an acquirer
“So, so yes, we will be selling at some point.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2026
McCraney: Cowboy Country Club is in around 100 retail stores
“So last year we started our wholesale business and we're in around a hundred retail stores nationwide.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2025
The United States now generates the majority of the UK-based Gymshark's revenue
“I know the U.S. So the U.S. Is now, the U.S. Is now the majority of the business.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2011
Rachael Ray mistakenly credited Nutsonline as Nuts.com on air in 2011
“We did ship them to Rachel Ray, and at the very end, she says, in the credit, she says, oh, I really want to thank nuts.com. And we were nutsonline.com, so I was like, oh, man.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2024
Shufelt: Athletic Brewing is a top 10 US craft brewer by volume
“Yeah, Athletic is top 10 craft brewer's number one biggest non-alcoholic beer breweries.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2025
Nussbaum: Proto technology can broadcast to thousands of locations simultaneously
“There's everything that you would need to hear, see, and interact with your audience, or audiences, because our technology, you can beam into
Thousands of locations at the same time.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2027
BloomX: Robotic pollinator covers up to 20 hectares in six days
“It can do up to 20 hectares a week in six days.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Finke: Brimstone commercial plant unlikely to be fully operational in five years
“So in the next five years, we will be working on building a first commercial plant. I think it's probably unlikely that it's, you know, fully operational.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2010
Herschel was featured on the cover of the GQ gift guide
“GQ the next day requested one of our bags to be shot in their studio, and we ended up on their, the front cover of the GQ gift guide for that year”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Swaminathan hopes Malta's first plant begins construction in 2024, operating by 2027
“Yeah, so I hope to start construction on our first plant towards the end of next year with the first fully in service by twenty-twenty-seven.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Kitson predicts Babcock Ranch will eventually incorporate as an independent town
“Eventually it will incorporate, it'll be its own town and it will have a, you know, whether it's a mayor or whatever form of government that ultimately is, is here.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2022
Hendricks: Westinghouse gave Discovery Channel a free week on satellite transponder
“Westinghouse, anxious to lease a transponder for the satellite, yeah, the satellite transponder, said, John, you know, we'll donate, we will give you the use of the satellite for a week.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2021
Reffkin: Grandfather left $26M to my aunt and $100 to my mother
“He ended up being very successful. I think he and his family owned real estate in Israel, and, you know, when he died, you know, he gave twenty-six million dollars to her sister, who is, I guess, more obedient to the way that And he wanted her to be. And gave …”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2021
Bartolucci took a $65,000 mortgage on parents' house for startup capital
“And we took 65,000 dollar mortgage on my parents' house.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2004
Safeway Picked Up Kodiak Cakes Across 1,200 Stores in 2004
“So in 2004, I had been working on sales, you know, kind of part time and I'd been working with Safeway. And I sent some samples out to this buyer. Her name was Donna Sullivan. She called me and she's like, Hey Joel, we're going to bring your pancake mix in to …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2023
Butler predicts The Lip Bar will reach $25 million in annual sales
“Oh yeah, totally. We'll, we'll get there. No, no doubt about that.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2020
Hartz: Early Eventbrite Handled a 100,000-Person Salsa Congress in Mexico City
“I'll never forget there was a 100,000 person free salsa congress in Mexico City that happened on Eventbrite when we had no business Ticketing. A 100,000 person event.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Aug 2019
Stonyfield Raised $2.5M and Opened a New Factory
“All told, including paying off the debts, two and a half million dollars, and opened our new factory nine months later in Londonderry, where we are today.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2019
Dyson: First licensed cyclonic vacuum in Japan sold for $2,500
“Well, I think considering it was two and a half thousand dollars, it did quite well.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Mar 2017
Saban sold over 18 million records in France over eight years
“I started a production company, then I set up my own label, And I sold over a period of eight years that I lived there on my own label, ah, more than eighteen million records.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2025
Zimmer wore frog and beaver costumes to market Zimride at Cornell
“One of the kind of funny things we had to figure out was how to quickly market to the college campus, and so one of our early purchases was a frog and beaver costume that we put on. I went to Cornell. I was actually going to Cornell on a recruiting trip for Le…”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jan 2024
Raz: Paige and Blake Mycoskie founded their companies on the same day
“By the way, according to Paige's mom, Paige and her brother Blake started their respective companies on the very same day in 2006, February 26, to be exact, which also happens to be Paige's birthday.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2023
Simmons: Writing 10,000 to 11,000 words weekly at ESPN caused burnout
“I was writing 10, 11,000 words a week. And it was unsustainable. Like I really started to burn out and Jimmy came along.”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2022
DFJ led Kana Communications' $700,000 Series A round in 1996
“Our series A led by Draper, Fisher, Jurvetson, DFJ. We closed that round in, I believe it was 1996, and 700,000 dollars.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2022
Raz: Over 10% of 'How I Built This' Founders Started in Consulting
“A significant percentage of people who've been on the show, I'd say more than 10%, worked in consulting for a couple years early in their careers, where you, you're basically paid to learn everything about a business in order to give them advice for how to be …”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2020
Boyd: The Laundress trademarked its brand in every country it sold in
“We early on had all our name trademarked in any country that we were sold to. So we owned the licensing and the trademarks.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2020
LaFleur: M.M.LaFleur registered in Delaware in June 2011 at WeWork
“I signed for a WeWork office starting May one, back when WeWork was still very small. I think they had, like, two buildings in New York. And then I officially registered as a LLC June one in Delaware.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2016
Wurwand: California had only about 2,300 licensed skincare professionals when IDI launched
“So I called the State Board of Cosmetology in Sacramento, California, and I called them and I said, do you have a list of everyone licensed in the state of California to perform skincare treatments? And it was a very short list. It was like 2300 names.”