The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 7,044 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 96 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brown: The beef industry asked lobbyists to shut down Impossible before launch
“Even from before we had our first product, I know from a direct source that a representative of that industry actually reached out to a lobbyist and basically Said to, you know, ask that, ask the lobbyists to get Congress or the USDA to shut us down.”
Pat Brown May 11, 2020 ▶ 54:50 Impossible Foods: Pat Brown
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wilson Blames Infamous Lululemon Pilling On Customers Sizing Down For Shapewear
“Women were coming into the store and not wanting Lululemon for athletics. They were coming in looking for it to shape their bodies. But the sewing technique and the fabric wasn't meant for it. So what they were doing is buying two to four sizes smaller than wh…”
Chip Wilson Feb 24, 2020 ▶ 43:08 Lululemon Athletica: Chip Wilson (2018)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Retailer Asked Daymond John to Remove Founders' Photos For Looking 'Gang'
“A large retailer did ask me to take the picture of myself and my three other partners off the hang tag, cause it said we look like a gang.”
Daymond John Nov 4, 2019 ▶ 38:17 FUBU: Daymond John (2018)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Men's Wearhouse intercepted Generation Tux's exclusive rental deal with Macy's
“My team and I were in New York in Terry Lundgren's office, the CEO of Macy's, making a deal to be the... Tuxedo, rental, and we had the deal. It went to legal review, and while it was in legal review, men's warehouse stole it.”
George Zimmer Apr 15, 2019 ▶ 52:43 Men's Wearhouse: George Zimmer
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Incoming CEO Morgridge told Lerner she was everything wrong with Cisco
“Yeah, and he denies it, but I will swear on the lives of my cats, the first thing he said to me was, I hear you're everything that's wrong with Cisco.”
Sandy Lerner Oct 1, 2018 ▶ 32:28 Cisco Systems & Urban Decay: Sandy Lerner
Assertion Supported
Cisco CEO John Morgridge abruptly fired co-founder Sandy Lerner six months post-IPO
“I was sitting in my little office in the corner, as I did every day, and he came in, and he sat down in the chair without making an appointment, and he said, ah, you know, I think it's time you retire. He says, you've got all this money now, you just, time to …”
Sandy Lerner Oct 1, 2018 ▶ 36:11 Cisco Systems & Urban Decay: Sandy Lerner
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wilson claims 2013 sheer pants pilled because women bought sizes too small
“Suddenly, women were coming into the store and not wanting Lululemon for athletics. They were coming in looking For it to shape their bodies. But the sewing technique and the fabric wasn't meant for it. So, what they were doing is buying two to four sizes smal…”
Chip Wilson Jun 18, 2018 ▶ 42:05 Lululemon Athletica: Chip Wilson
Assertion Supported
Jim Koch: Heineken and Beck's exported non-compliant, inferior beer to America
“They send us Heineken that's outlawed in Germany because of Germany's strict beer purity law, and the Becks they send us isn't the same Becks they have in Germany. They add forbidden adjuncts to it.”
Jim Koch Jul 24, 2017 ▶ 25:46 Samuel Adams: Jim Koch (2017)
Assertion Supported
Wenner: Rolling Stone Published UVA Story Without Adequate Fact-Checking
“But the general report on rape on campus was quite accurate. The Illustrated main story of the rape victim that was made up by that rape victim. And we print that without adequately checking it.”
Jann Wenner Jul 10, 2017 ▶ 38:24 Rolling Stone: Jann Wenner
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan Brown predicts eating animal meat will become a niche novelty
“There's part of us that's always gonna do this, right? Hunt people who hunt, you know, like, I go back to our farm and stuff, like, it's just part of who we are. But I think in the main, You know, it will be viewed as something that we used to do, and I think …”
Ethan Brown Feb 16, 2017 ▶ 23:10 Live Episode! Beyond Meat: Ethan Brown
Assertion Partly supported
Koch: Heineken and Beck's exported beer with ingredients outlawed in Germany
“They send us Heineken that's outlawed in Germany because of Germany's strict beer purity law, and the Becks they send us isn't the same Becks they have in Germany. They add forbidden adjuncts to it.”
Jim Koch Oct 31, 2016 ▶ 25:17 Samuel Adams: Jim Koch
Assertion Not checkable as stated
A private equity firm demanded controlling interest in exchange for 17% equity
“They're asking for a controlling interest in your company for a 17% of your equity, you know.”
Lily Kanter Aug 3, 2026 ▶ 43:49 Serena & Lily: Serena Dugan and Lily Kanter. They Built a $20M Brand—Then One Investor Almost Destroyed It
Assertion Not checkable as stated
A 2X participating preferred term blocked Serena & Lily from raising capital
“One of our other major investor on Sandhill Road came up with the capital. They actually put the money into the company on top of our cap stack, on top of the capital chart, At a very heavy duty preference of a two X preferred participating, very gnarly securi…”
Lily Kanter Aug 3, 2026 ▶ 56:31 Serena & Lily: Serena Dugan and Lily Kanter. They Built a $20M Brand—Then One Investor Almost Destroyed It
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Acquirers demanded perpetual rights to founders' name, image, and likeness
“And meanwhile, our investors want us to take the acquisition offer regardless of the egregious terms, including, ah, owning our name, image, and likeness in perpetuity.”
Serena Dugan Aug 3, 2026 ▶ 1:02:30 Serena & Lily: Serena Dugan and Lily Kanter. They Built a $20M Brand—Then One Investor Almost Destroyed It
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Starr: Further tipped minimum wage hikes will make restaurant survival impossible
“I think at a certain point, especially with tipped employees, I don't know if it should keep going up, because, I mean, it's going to be impossible for restaurants to really keep, to stay in business.”
Stephen Starr Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 1:08:36 STARR Restaurants: Stephen Starr. How a Non-Foodie Built Thriving Restaurants on Gut Instinct
Assertion Partly supported
Brian Smith: Lack of Prior Use Enabled US Trademark Registration for UGG
“And I did a search of the world, especially the US, to see if there'd been any prior use of the trade name Ugg, and they had not. So, That opened up the gate for me to do the registration of the trademark.”
Brian Smith Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 20:21 UGG: Brian Smith. How an epiphany, surfers, and $500 launched an iconic sheepskin footwear company.
Assertion Supported
Brian Smith: The name 'Ugg' was a generic term in Australia
“It was generic down there, yeah.”
Brian Smith Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 20:43 UGG: Brian Smith. How an epiphany, surfers, and $500 launched an iconic sheepskin footwear company.
Assertion Partly supported
AI revolutionized radiology scans, but human radiologist demand has still increased
“AI has now completely revolutionized radiology. Every single radiologist uses AI to Study the scans. It does it incredibly fast, incredibly accurately, better than a human can. However, radiologists' demand has gone up.”
Jensen Huang May 18, 2026 ▶ 48:07 NVIDIA: Jensen Huang. From near collapse to becoming the world’s biggest company
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: AI will empower new college graduates rather than taking their jobs
“AI is going to help this next generation of new college grads achieve greater things, build greater things, not take their jobs.”
Jensen Huang May 18, 2026 ▶ 50:33 NVIDIA: Jensen Huang. From near collapse to becoming the world’s biggest company
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: Humanity will achieve centuries of technological progress in coming decades
“We will do in the next several decades what it took humanity several hundred years to achieve.”
Jensen Huang May 18, 2026 ▶ 52:02 NVIDIA: Jensen Huang. From near collapse to becoming the world’s biggest company
Assertion Supported
Angle: China now leads consumer robotic floor care instead of US
“We used to, past tense, lead the consumer robotic floor care industry. We don't anymore. China does.”
Colin Angle Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 58:02 iRobot: Colin Angle. How The Roomba Became a Household Icon
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steve Ells: Robots will not displace restaurant cooking anytime soon
“And so the, your question, will robots displace that? I mean, maybe someday, but certainly not Not anywhere in the near future.”
Steve Ells Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 4:56 Advice Line with Steve Ells of Chipotle
Assertion Partly supported
Jet.com raised a $618M Series A while operating with negative gross margins
“But the real key was raising, we did a six hundred and eighteen million dollar Series A. So we'd raised some money before that, and then we had the six hundred million Series A. That was a really tough round to get done. That was, at that time, we had negative…”
Marc Lore Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 1:00:24 diapers.com: Marc Lore. The ecommerce visionary who lost to Amazon but still made billions (2021)
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
O'Hayer laid off 140 employees on 9/11 before the second tower fell
“So I got on the phone right before the second tower came down, Got on phone with London and Austin and laid off a 140 people.”
Matt O'Hayer Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 21:16 Vital Farms: Matt O’Hayer. How a serial entrepreneur re-branded the egg
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Square's early investor prototypes broke numerous banking laws and financial rules
“Everything worked, but it was breaking many, many laws and rules.”
Jim McKelvey Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 52:43 Square: Jim McKelvey. He Lost a $2,000 Sale, Then Built a $10 Billion Company
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amazon board member offered VC funding to stop Amazon attacking Square
“I remember one guy telling me, oh, Amazon's gonna attack you? Don't worry, I'm on the board of Amazon, and I developed Amazon Prime, and we can get them to leave you alone. Like, if you take our money, we'll guarantee that Amazon doesn't attack you.”
Jim McKelvey Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 54:54 Square: Jim McKelvey. He Lost a $2,000 Sale, Then Built a $10 Billion Company
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hastings: Films will keep human actors because audiences demand human drama
“And I think in the same way you know films will have human actors, not because it can't be something else but because other humans won't be that interested.”
Reed Hastings Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 1:18:04 Netflix: Reed Hastings. “We’re Not a Family.” The Provocative Idea That Helped Build a Streaming Giant
Assertion Supported
FDA $365,000 application fees are the primary barrier to domestic generics
“Our biggest inhibitor and why we haven't done it yet is all the fees that the FDA charges. So it's about 365,000 dollars to set up what's called an end on new drug application.”
Mark Cuban Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 3:08 Advice Line with Serial Entrepreneur Mark Cuban
Assertion Not checkable as stated
La Colombe clashed with its first PE backer over canned cold brew
“We did the deal, and that lasted 52 days to the first board meeting. I said, ok, I believe that cold brew is going to be a thing, and La Colombe needs to be the father of it. We also need to create ready-to-drink drinks that include milk, and hopefully one, if…”
Todd Carmichael Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 54:16 La Colombe Coffee Roasters: Todd Carmichael and J.P. Iberti. A Brotherhood Built on Coffee (2020)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nirav Tolia predicts AI action platforms will completely replace multi-link search
“Particularly in a world of AI, where most consumers are going to go to one place, ask a question, and everything's going to be taken care of behind the scenes. It's not going to be, You go to Google, you get 15 links, you click on all of them, you hit back, yo…”
Nirav Tolia Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 1:04:19 Nirav Tolia: Nextdoor. How neighborhood chatter went global
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tech Deck falsely accused Carlton Calvin of infringing their intellectual property
“And at the time they sent around a letter saying that I was infringing their intellectual property, even though the exact opposite was true in, you know, it was really, so it was really dirty actually in my understanding of the world.”
Carlton Calvin Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 31:31 Carlton Calvin: Razor. The wild rise, collapse, and reinvention of a mobile toy empire.
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AriZona recently earned its co-founder's entire buyout amount in one year
“Absolutely. You know, what we earned last year was what to get bought out for, you know.”
Don Vultaggio Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 50:42 Don Vultaggio: AriZona Beverage Company - The Snap Decision That Outsmarted Snapple
Assertion Contradicted
Kilgore: Mainstream beauty products carry at least a 1,200% retail markup
“And in all of these different layers of distribution, you would end up with a markup of 1200% At minimum on that product. So something that is manufactured for five dollars would retail for 60 at minimum because the retailer themselves are taking at least half…”
Marcia Kilgore Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 2:24 Advice Line with Marcia Kilgore of Beauty Pie
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lawyers advised Dylan Field the Adobe acquisition would almost certainly clear
“Our lawyers said that it would almost certainly go through.”
Dylan Field Jun 16, 2025 ▶ 1:03:22 Figma: Dylan Field
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Von Ahn: Duolingo could charge $150/year and users would pay
“The reality is it's not even 60 bucks a year. I mean, we can charge 150 and people will pay it.”
Luis von Ahn May 1, 2025 ▶ 41:42 Advice Line with Luis von Ahn of Duolingo
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiegel: Zuckerberg Disclosed Facebook's Poke Clone In Late 2012 Meeting
“He was telling us about working on a new poke app, which ultimately ended up being a copycat of Snapchat at the time.”
Evan Spiegel Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 32:01 Snap: Evan Spiegel
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Spiegel: Snap did not anticipate Instagram directly carbon-copying Stories
“The one thing that we didn't anticipate was that Instagram would actually perfectly copy stories, like carbon copy it, because in the past they had sort of tried different rifts on our products, like they would take the core idea, but then try to make it bette…”
Evan Spiegel Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 47:51 Snap: Evan Spiegel
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dunn: Investment capital is flowing to profitable wholesale brands, not DTC
“All the money is going into profitable wholesale led brands now, not into DTC brands.”
Andy Dunn Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 42:50 Advice Line with Andy Dunn of Bonobos
Assertion Supported
Chang: Uber Eats and DoorDash take up to 50% of restaurant margins
“So with margins becoming thinner and thinner in the restaurant industry, we find our original strategy of delivery becoming highly unsustainable with delivery apps like Uber and DoorDash taking margins specifically in the city up to 50%.”
Sean Chang Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 8:32 Advice Line with Travis Boersma of Dutch Bros
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rubin: Masayoshi Son said GSI Commerce was not losing enough money in 2000
“I remember having the founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi's son, tell me in 2000 that we weren't losing enough money.”
Michael Rubin Jan 27, 2025 ▶ 34:55 Fanatics: Michael Rubin
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ainsworth: Legacy bat competitors shipped dozens where few were game-ready
“We saw that the other competitors in the space were sending out, you know, 12 bats to a player when they'd order a dozen players, and only three or four of them would be good enough to use in a game.”
Kurt Ainsworth Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 18:29 Marucci Sports - Kurt Ainsworth
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ainsworth: Competitors' bats also failed lab tests, but only Marucci was decertified
“We then took bats from the field, sent them to the lab, and they were all over the limit, but nobody else was decertified but us,”
Kurt Ainsworth Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 54:28 Marucci Sports - Kurt Ainsworth
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bark Air Aims to Reduce Ticket Prices to $600 Within One Year
“We have line of sight to, how do we get to that 600 dollar ticket? We have very clear line of sight to doing that, I'd say, in the next year.”
Matt Meeker Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 1:01:39 BARK: Matt Meeker
Assertion Supported
Rudolph: Banza lot testing was 97% lower than activist claims
“We published a statement very quickly on our website that, you know, not only acknowledged historical testing results for what was sort of being questioned, but also even tested the same lot. It was 97% lower than what was being claimed.”
Brian Rudolph Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 23:26 What It Really Takes To Build a Food Business: Part 2
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Mason: Hired actress to impersonate Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz to prank staff
“What happened was we had an all hands meeting at this church down the street from the office and, you know, they're the 500 or a thousand Groupon employees were in this church. And I came up to the stage. I said, hey, I have a special announcement... I said, h…”
Andrew Mason Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 38:23 Groupon and Descript: Andrew Mason
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bosch: Former manufacturer planted metal in SmartSweets bags before national launch
“When Whole Foods, when we're like, okay, we're doing a national launch with them, simultaneously, at the same time, the first manufacturer that we had, sketchy things start happening. There's metal that's starting to be found in some bags. There's I get a call…”
Tara Bosch Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 55:17 SmartSweets: Tara Bosch
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Specialized Founder: Future of EV mobility is two-wheeled bicycles, not cars
“More and more, I see the activity of cycling, the whole mobility, the EV of the future is the two-wheel bike. Not the 8000 pound vehicle. I see that that's the future.”
Mike Sinyard Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 53:30 Specialized Bicycle Components: Mike Sinyard
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump and Biden Administrations Maintained Surprisingly Consistent Protectionist Trade Policies
“Two pretty opposed administrations, obviously. They're quite consistent on trade policy. Bob Lighthizer, who is the U.S. Trade Representative under Trump, right? And Ambassador Tai under Biden actually see the world quite similarly and are doing good work.”
Bayard Winthrop Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 1:09:36 American Giant: Bayard Winthrop
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