Europe

“Germany uses more disposable plastic packaging per capita than almost any other country in Europe.”

“I don't think in the long term, Europe wants to trade Their dependence on Russian gas for US LNG.”

“And so that, you know, by 20, 25 or 20, 26, you know, in the sort of three to four year timeframe, it should be possible to get back to sort of typical European, you know, conditions, albeit with dramatically lower oil and gas consumption, particularly gas con…”

“50 is enough to displace about a third of Russia's imports just with US LNG over the medium term. and that 15 BCM is about a 10th of the Russian imports right now.”

“Europe's current plan is to cut natural gas use by about two thirds before this winter. Can they actually go a hundred percent? Can they cut if they needed to, or if they needed to make a credible threat on the global stage to Putin that we will cut our gas us…”

“Gazprom, the Russian gas company, owns a lot of storage assets for natural gas in Europe, and if you look at the storage volumes for Gazprom-owned storage assets in Europe, they were much lower than the average for other assets at the time, so it's almost as i…”

“I do think longer term, you're right, it would, could split that link if, you know, if basically natural gas plays a very small role in, in Europe's energy mix in another five years that'll help drive a wedge between the prices in the power sector and the gas …”

“In Europe, they use a lot of water you know, forced water heating, and we don't have a lot of hydronic heat pumps that do water, you know, air to water type heating. It's just not what we built And use in the U S very often. And so most of the stuff we deploy …”

“So there's a risk that by Europe going forward fast on sustainable aviation fuels that may lead to eco-colonialism or may lead to deforestation and bad outcomes, even though they're chasing something virtuous.”

“I mean, there's definitely going to be tailwinds for heat pumps in the U S for sure, but in Europe, even more so, I think for the next few years.”

“You know, we're almost up to thirty-ish percent of New vehicle sales in Europe are EVs. We're more kind of five, six percent in the U.S.”

“And so I think certainly Europe's going into recession, and a pretty high expectation that the U.S. Will be in a recession, and that's now permeating the oil price”

“Typically, the European wholesale electric power costs are a hundred to hundred and fifty billion dollars. This year, they'll be over a trillion dollars.”

“Russia was supplying 38 to 40% of Europe's gas. Half of Russia's oil exports went to Europe.”

“And in fact, one point in January, before the crisis, the U.S. LNG was supplying more natural gas to Europe than Russian pipeline gas.”

“We saw natural gas, at least for a point, trading at close to the energy equivalent of 600 dollars a barrel.”

“So I think we will, in the end, see some industrial shift out of Europe, just because it'll be, some countries have natural competitive advantage in, in, in access to cheaper renewable resources, and thereby, Making their hydrogen production costs lower. and …”

“You've got a regulatory construct that is still very much in development in Europe, and that is causing some Significant headwinds for anybody who's trying to actually get something built in hydrogen in Europe.”

“Batteries for residential solar systems are becoming standard offers in Europe and in the U.S., Frankly, some of the sales proposals are of indifferent veracity, and the current software isn't up to economically optimizing when batteries charge and discharge.”

“There's a cap of 180 euros per megawatt hour because To solar and wind generators to, as basically a windfall tax on their profits. The merchant rates have sometimes been up to 600 euros a megawatt hour.”

“Which is why US solar capexers are consistently 30 to a hundred percent higher than in, than for similar projects in Europe, and your import tariffs don't help either, but that's actually only a relatively minor part of it.”

“When salespeople sell solar systems, they have a very strong incentive already to assume that the power prices will increase, and then tell the consumers, oh, it will pay back in X years, or it will make you an IRR of 50%, and you look at them, and they're act…”

“Europe, it's really a mixture, because we have plenty of land in Europe that First of all, used to be used for industry and isn't anymore, or is used for agriculture, but not particularly productively.”

“There are not going to be huge amounts of ammonia pipelines going around the world. Like, we're not going to see that. The way that we use ammonia pipelines in the U.S. Today is sort of very unusual and bespoke for our purpose, but that's not the way that we'r…”

“The reason, one of the main reasons why Europe has been going through the past year is because of Xi Jinping and its zero COVID policy. Because Chinese gas demand has been muted, its LNG imports have declined massively, and China in 2021 was the largest LNG im…”

“The first one is that the trust which kind of existed between Europe and Russia is dead. I mean, this is never going to be restored again.”

“We have seen prices in Europe at, you know, almost one dollars per mmbtu, which is not something that we have ever seen. I mean, Prices in Europe over, you know, the past few years had been around six to eight dollars per MBTU.”

“We had also something very strange happening in Europe, which was a decline in wind generation in spring, 20, 21. That's very strange because we were adding new wind power, but the generation was actually dropping.”

“We are importing Russian LNG. And, you know, I wrote a little note on that, and suddenly everybody realized, oh, actually, Russian LNG is still coming to Europe. Yes, it's still coming. Nobody's talking about that. This is actually included in the global LNG s…”

“In 2021, we were importing one hundred forty billion cubic meters of Russian Pipeline gas. Now we are importing the equivalent of 25.”

“Anti-ESG sentiment is at the political level almost uniquely U.S. It's something that happens really only here. It's not nearly as big of a topic in Europe at a sort of polity level, or definitely not at like a local politics level”

“Renewable energy generation in China has now surpassed all of Europe put together. It has also surpassed U.S. Renewable energy generation. It's growing across all places, but it is growing by far the fastest in China.”

“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others have,…”

“Transporting hydrogen by pipeline, which can also be an option between, you know, different continents and will be definitely an option and the cheapest option for Europe.”

“Right now, household penetration for plant-based meat is about 20%. You look at where household penetration is for plant-based beverages, you know, plant milk, it's about over 40%. And in Europe, you know, plant-based beverages have a penetration of 50%.”

“Well, right now, so, like, if there's about thirteen million electric vehicles across Europe and the US, so, like, eight million and about five million in the US and so that's about 13 gigawatts at peak of load, which is probably, in the US, right now, untappe…”

“The networks tend to be much more concentrated in the United States. So we have big networks that span across the entirety of the US. Versus in Europe, there is huge fragmentation. If you go to somewhere like Germany, there are literally hundreds of different …”

“So there's about eight, eight million vehicles I mean, plug-in vehicles in, in the European market right now, and over 50% now are battery electric. And in the US it's around four and a half million, and again, over 50% now are battery electric.”

“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others, and …”

“Europe is 84% of the almost three trillion dollars of assets under management, sustainable assets under management at the end of last year, and the U.S. Is 11%.”

“But in the most recent print of data here from Transport and Environment in the UK, like, almost half of Europe's animal fat supply is not going towards biodiesel. And that's really significant because it's gonna start crowding out these other uses for it.”

“In Europe with CSRD, I mean, many companies, you know, large companies are reporting, they're getting ready for CSRD. They're not even focused on this SEC piece. It's all about the double materiality, It's all about going through the materiality assessment and…”

“We're finally starting to see after about 20 years of more or less flat demand in aggregate across North America and most of Europe.”

“Well, the data suggests, actually, that workers in South Korea and Japan and Europe, they make more than Americans, and yet the ships are still significantly cheaper, so that's interesting.”

“They realize this is going to, these regulations are going to double the price of cement in Europe, whether you're going to be paying for post-combustion carbon capture, or you're simply going to be paying the carbon price.”

“In Europe, for example they have they are moving back towards, I shouldn't say back towards, they are moving towards natural refrigerants, so, you know, propane and CO₂, because they are restricting the use of these ultra-low GWP refrigerants because of the PF…”

“And it was 500 to 550 hours in 2022, and it was more than 9000 hours last year.”

“I will reiterate that this number, 70 to a hundred dollar megawatts, requires low cost natural gas. So Europe is not going to be doing a lot of this, right?”

“In fact, I am aware of Companies that they really relied on those Chinese technologies, and now they are having challenges with bringing those equipment into the U.S. And Europe. So they, their projects have been suffering from that.”

“No longer do you have a ready and plentiful access to pipeline gas coming in from Russia. So now in Europe, natural gas prices are much more closely pegged to global LNG imports into Europe, and that has changed the spark spread there and the equation there.”

“For wind projects, it's not a huge impact because it's very easy to source components from, you Non-China sources. There's plenty of, you know, wind turbine component manufacturing in America and Europe, et cetera.”

“So I think the next five years looks like very, very tactical kind of one-off projects that are policy-driven in places like Europe. That have the policy frameworks in place or emerging to motivate consumption of these molecules.”

“And it's also moving at a much more rapid pace than either North America or Europe. Which has sort of slowly ticked up over the course of five decades from 10% to a little bit north of 20%. China, meanwhile, has gone since 1970 from, like, three percent to 30%…”

“The problem is, if you go back to January one, nitrogen markets and phosphate markets were already dealing with supply tightness because of European production rates, because of a lack of Chinese exports, because the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war.”

“That means their production, their nitrogen production in Europe is only sitting about 75% of normal, and that's for all of Europe, and when you start to break that down, That's about three and a half million tons of urea that's not being produced a year. That…”

“And unfortunately at this point in time, we're sitting in 20, 26. I don't know that we will ever see a hundred percent in Europe again.”

“In terms of comparison to Europe and the United States, they're 30 to 40% less expensive.”