The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,051 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 17 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Trump states he will close the Department of Education early in administration
“One other thing I'll be doing very early in the administration is closing up the Department of Education in Washington, D.C., And sending all education and education work and needs back to the states. We want them to run the education of our children.”
Brooks: Polyamory is nonsense because humans are built for pair-bonding
“All of the nonsense about, I don't know, polyamory that are coming around. That's all Nonsense. And again, I mean, look, no judgment, different strokes, but look, I'm a behavioral scientist, and the truth of the matter is that we are built for pair-bond mating”
Gurley: US proprietary AI will likely lose its lead over Chinese open-source AI
“I think the odds that, that, you know,
The US with two, you know, proprietary models can stay ahead of China with 10 open source ones is very low.”
Daymond John: AI disruption will trigger civil war in the US
“Because AI is going to turn this country into a civil war. Because when the have-nots don't have anything, they're coming after us.”
Gary Vaynerchuk predicts some people's grandchildren will marry AI robots
“Well, I've gone pretty viral lately because I, my craziest prediction is that most people's grandchildren will marry an AI robot. Some of them will, not everyone's going to”
Lonsdale: Government regulators target Elon Musk to punish public speech
“If they want to go to attack Elon to punish him for speaking up, they will, and they do.”
Sanchez: Khosla backs open borders while suing to block public beach access
“He is going out there saying that we should have an open border when he has a private mansion on a beach trying to block public access to the beach for normal people, is in a lawsuit for like five or seven years while trying to say that we should have open bor…”
Sanchez: Anyone Saying Elon Musk Harms Economy Is Lying or Dumb
“Anyone who thinks he's bad for the economy is either lying or so dumb as to be irrelevant.”
Gabbard: DNC leadership rigged the 2016 primary for Hillary Clinton
“The party leadership was heavily waiting and tilting the scales and essentially rigging the primary for Hillary Clinton, much in the same manner that we have seen occur in this 2024 election for Joe Biden”
Sanchez: Manifestation acts as anesthesia, draining the drive to do work
“So your brain books the fantasy as like a partial payment on the real thing. And it actually gives you the reward before you've done the work. So the drive to do the actual work drains out of you. Fascinating. So in other words, manifestation is actually anest…”
Woods saved a company $300M in 10 minutes using ChatGPT interviews
“I saved one company, three hundred million dollars in 10 minutes with ChatGPT. Cause I knew how to get it to ask me the right questions.”
Hammer: Dave Ramsey's $2,000 Beater Car Strategy Doesn't Work Anymore
“So the classic Dave Ramsey, 2000 hour car, that's, they're going to be putting 2000 hours into it every few months just to keep it going. And that doesn't work anymore.”
Hammer: Ramsey's 6-7% Retirement Withdrawal Rule Is Dangerous
“They suggest you can withdraw six to seven percent a year. And just live off of it forever. Cause it averages 10% a year, but it makes no sense. Like no financial model agrees with that. You, four percent has a 95% chance of completion. Even four percent is no…”
Gladwell: Remote Work in His Twenties Would Have Derailed His Career
“When I look at my own career, I would not be where I am today if in my twenties and thirties I was working remotely.”
Gladwell: Remote workers lacking social capital will be laid off first
“When people stop, stop hiring and start firing, we're going to find out who gets fired first. And if you don't have any, if you're not built up any kind of face time or any kind of social capital in your organization, you're, you, it's much easier for you to b…”
Jain: Founders should avoid traditional VC in their first two years
“I mean, candidly, I'm pretty anti-raising capital from traditional investment groups, especially in the first couple of years of your business.”
Jain: Traditional VC traps founders in a rat race for vanity metrics
“The problem with that is the minute you take capital from a traditional investment fund, you are on this, like, rat race where everyone is chasing growth and these, you know, whatever the hot metric of the month is.”
Jain: Early founders should bypass VCs to partner with corporate buyers
“In the early days, why would you go to a middleman, like a venture firm, whose value add is to connect you to somebody else, who by the way, then still doesn't have any interest in actually helping you, right? Versus going directly to these companies that you …”
Sapp: $20K per Month Is Realistic for Inexperienced Sales Closers
“I would say, like, a realistic level for no sales experience is 20 K a month. I always say, like, I'll brainwash you into normalizing a 20 K a month. Because genuinely, like, a 20 K a month in sales really isn't that far-fetched.”
Zimmer: Hollywood studios seemingly colluded to eliminate first-dollar gross backend
“I'm not an antitrust attorney, and I'm certainly not someone to threaten, you know ... Collusion. But it sure felt a lot like it. It all happened very quickly, all around the same time, and suddenly there was no first dollar gross to be had, and back ends beca…”
Zimmer: Talk of Hollywood union unrest is damaging and misplaced
“I think that, you know, the talk about it more, you know union unrest, I think is really, really damaging and really, really misplaced right now.
And I'm really hopeful that we don't have another couple of strikes cause that would just be devastating.”
Sanchez: US Unemployment Is Racing Toward 10% or 20%
“I think America is racing towards a 10% unemployment rate, maybe 20.”
Galloway: Loneliness and political extremism threaten society more than climate change
“I think the biggest threats to our society aren't climate change or even income inequality. I think it's one extremism from the far left and the far right, and two, I think it's loneliness.”
Galloway: Regulators should break up dominant companies across all industries
“So I would argue the way to oxygenate the market would be to go through industry by industry and break up”
Galloway: The entire hedge fund and alternative investment industry is a grift
“But if you took the entire alternative investments industry, any logo on CNBC, anyone that advertises, any hedge fund, anywhere, it's essentially a grift.”
Galloway: Elon Musk is not a good role model for men
“I think he's not a very good role model for men.
I don't think living alone with none of your 12 children by three women with a loaded gun next to your bed is what men should aspire to.”
Gurley: Anthropic funds more lobbyists advocating for AI regulation than anyone else
“No one's funding more lobbyists begging for AI regulation than Anthropic themselves.”
Gurley: 17-year patent terms are too long; innovation would be faster without them
“I would just say, you know, a 17 year patent is way too far. Like, we need to dial it back. I think that we will innovate faster without it.”
Gurley: The claim that Chinese tech companies are merely copycats is false
“And then you hear this idea, oh, you know, the Chinese are just copycats. They're not innovators. It's just not true. Like, it's just flat out not true.”
Gurley: Travis Kalanick is one of the smartest, hardest-working people he knows
“Uber started in the dingiest, you know, smallest of offices like most startups do, and I already talked about how determined Travis was. He's one of the smartest people I've ever met. He's one of the hardest working people I've ever met, and I don't think the …”
Hiring big-company executives for scaling is 'the biggest bunch of bullshit'
“Once you grow and you get to a certain size, you need experts. That's the biggest bunch of bullshit ever. I mean, literally like the number of people that I brought in to Tom's later, like once we were like a couple hundred million dollar business that quote h…”
Tony Robbins: You cannot have impact without being willing to offend
“If you're not going to offend anybody, you're not going to have any impact.”
Sanchez: Crying at work guarantees you will stall in middle management
“I'm sorry to say this, but don't listen to anybody else who says, oh, you can cry if you want to. Oh, you can just say your truth out loud. Oh, it's fine. No, no, no, no. Those people will forever rent apartments and at most get to middle management. They will…”
Sexton: Marriage licenses should require one hour with a divorce lawyer
“Everyone has to spend one hour with a divorce lawyer before they can get a marriage license. That seems very fair to me. Like, it seems like something that would be useful for people, because at least that way, they'll know, take this thing seriously. And I kn…”
Liemandt: AI tutoring propels students to top 1% in two hours daily
“So in two hours a day, they sit down for two hours. They learn more than twice as much as if they sat in class. And so they're learning so fast. It doesn't matter where they come in. They can come in, you know, top 25%, bottom 25%. They are going to get to top…”
Liemandt: Alpha School pays middle schoolers $1,000 for top 1% test scores
“We will take any middle schooler, girls or boys, and we will pay them a thousand dollars if they get to top one percent.”
Liemandt: AI tutoring makes reaching the top 1% about effort, not IQ
“Because of how these AI tutor works. It's not about IQ. It's literally about effort. Wow. And we show them if you, if with this tutor put in the right way in the system, they all can do it. And it literally will calculate for them. It's this many hours of time…”
Liemandt: Mastery learning could put 95% of US students in top 1%
“For sure in, you know, K through eight, the K through eight curriculum, you know, if you take 95% of America, they could all be top one percent, that there's just nothing intellectually challenging enough. If done with a mastery-based education, with an indivi…”
Liemandt: Nonprofits cannot scale because better products deplete donations faster
“The reason is nonprofit means non-scalable. Like if I have a set of donations, right. And I build the world's best product, the better the product, the faster my money goes away. And now I'm done, right?”
Liemandt: Chatbots are 'cheat bots' and should be banned from schools
“It's why I say chat bots or cheat bots and they're terrible. Like if we could ban Like those chatbots being in school, that would be great.”
Lyon: Evidence Does Not Support Claims That Seed Oils Derange Metabolism
“The evidence doesn't support that seed oils are causing the derangement that people are saying.”
Lyon: Alzheimer's, Heart Disease, and Diabetes Are Symptoms of Unhealthy Muscle
“Alzheimer's, cardiovascular disease, Diabetes, obesity, that these are all symptoms of unhealthy skeletal muscle”
Sanchez struggles to find women founders building sufficiently large businesses
“I actively look for women to invest in, and I have a really hard time finding women who are building big enough businesses.”
Masad: AI Replicas of $10K+ SaaS Tools Cost Literally $5
“You know, a lot of companies pay tens of thousands of dollars for software.
You can generate a replica for five dollars, literally.”
Masad: Meta's core social networks are dying assets facing AI disruption
“Meta has this asset that's spitting out a ton of cash. Which is Instagram, Facebook, their ads, kind of networks. But it's in a way a dying asset in many ways. It's a very competitive at some point it's going to get fully disrupted. AI is going in. It's alread…”
Masad: AI models remix existing data and cannot create new knowledge
“GPT, ChatGPT, Cod, all of them, are simply machines that are trained to regurgitate all the materials they've read online, right?
They're amazing machines, they can do programming, all that stuff, but they are a function of their data.
You know, like you say…”
Daymond John: Wealthy founders seeking Shark Tank publicity are 'selfish bastards'
“If you have two million dollars in the bank, and you have your hat in your hand asking for money, and you have no no, you don't plan on closing a shark, you took that slot away from a family who risked everything, who their kids are not going to college, they'…”
McCord: Top AI lab leaders privately believe AI should direct human actions
“At the top labs, the AI labs that are really driving this, a lot of people behind closed doors believe that we should in fact do that, that we're being foolish rebels. If we don't listen to artificial intelligence, tell us what to do.”