The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 128 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lonsdale: Joby Aviation will be the first eVTOL company to deploy
“And so I think you guys, like you said, you're first through, you're going to be the first to deploy.”
Thiel: NRC Has Not Approved a New Reactor Design in 50+ Years
“The Nuclear Regulatory Commission basically hasn't approved a new reactor design in, in 50 plus years.”
Lonsdale: Trump's second term saw more injunctions than entire Biden presidency
“I think we've just seen more injunctions In the first few months of Trump's second term than the entire Biden presidency.”
Lonsdale: European regulators are banning OpenAI
“Such as the Europeans who are banning OpenAI, by the way, which is very funny for the latest launch.”
Blank: Stanford was the only Cold War university encouraging commercial spinouts
“Because all research universities in the United States during the Cold War worked on military weapons systems, but it was only Stanford where back by then the term was the provost Who pointed the university outwards. All other universities were focused inwards…”
Gil: Twitter couldn't deploy code for weeks during MixerLabs acquisition
“At the same time when we were bought they couldn't what's known as deploy code, they couldn't update the website. And they hadn't been updating it for weeks. They just didn't know how to update the code.”
Maritime Drone Technology Lagged Aerial Drone Swarms by Twenty Years
“There was this huge gap in the market that we saw when we started the company where The technology was really 15 and 20 years behind. So the drone swarms that you see in the aerial domain didn't exist in maritime before Saronix started.”
Ross: US Ranks at Best 30th Globally in Elementary Reading and Math
“And if you look at the statistics, even in grammar school, the lower grades, we rank at best 30th in the world in reading, writing, and grammar school math.”
Lowery: Epirus Will Enter a DoD Program of Record in 2025
“We are deploying to CENTCOM. If those deployments are successful, we will be palmed into a program or record In 20, 25.”
Penner: Bond Market Had No Access Points Into Real Estate Before CMBS
“Up until that moment, the bond market had no active or access points, active participation or access points into real estate. And I kind of opened that door or built that bridge for that wealth of money to kind of come in and express itself into real estate.”
Lonsdale: Paying Students for Good Grades Was Roland Fryer's Top Intervention
“It was to pay them for great grades. And the reason was, is it turned out that a lot of these poor communities, the kids don't actually care about their grades or their school because they think it doesn't matter.”
Pentagon tagged Pakistani fertilizer plants to track IED supply chains
“And I was on Jieda, which is the joint IED on, you know, task force. So we would do crazy things like sprinkle markers into the fertilizer plants in Pakistan that were used to make the IEDs so we could Track them.”
Gerstner: Fed's 1.5% GDP forecast for 2024 is probably overly optimistic
“The Fed has said its forecast for next year is 1.5% on GDP. I think that's probably rosy. Given, ah, the things that we're seeing in the world, 20% credit cards, 10% car loans, eight percent mortgages are having a deleterious impact on consumption.”
Attia: Living past age 90 is almost entirely determined by genetics
“That is almost exclusively a genetic lottery. So once you're in the. 90 plus category genes are almost entirely all responsible”
Carter: Philadelphia has not approved a single charter school in eight years
“Philadelphia hasn't approved one charter school in eight years since, since this mayor's been in office.”
Lonsdale: Roland Fryer found paying students for grades outperformed smaller classes
“He tested all these different things, like what, where they use the money best, and there's one thing is, like, people say smaller class sizes matter, and he tested all of it, and the thing he found in these poor inner cities that actually had the biggest impa…”
Menlo Micro switches can cut Indian ceiling fan power consumption by half
“So with this one switch that's, you know, very cheap, you can actually now cut that by 50%. Wow. So you're now only consuming three to four percent of that electricity in that country for these ceiling fans without any change in the product, any change in comf…”
Williams: Half of Americans will view the 2024 election as illegitimate
“Fully half of the country, I think in 20, 24 Either way the election pans out will feel that the election was illegitimate, and that's.”
Barnard: Paramount Solar invented selling residential solar digitally
“We kind of invented the ability to sell residential solar digitally, on the internet, over the phone, without meeting with the customer in person.”
Sprowls: Florida School Choice Bill Added 1.5M Eligible Students
“When we passed this bill, there's an extra one and a half million kids who qualify for school choice who didn't qualify before.”
Kloberdanz: OneHope will become the largest US DTC wine brand
“And we'll be the largest direct to consumer wine brand in the U S in the next couple of years too.”
Kloberdanz: People born today are on track to live to 150
“But we're on the way to where people are expected to live to like a 150 that are being born now.”
Helberg: US is currently seeing five percent productivity growth
“I mean, we're at five percent productivity growth.”
Jake Paul: Betr is the only gaming firm prohibiting credit cards
“I think we are the only company to not take credit card and actually debit”
Gebbia: Federal retirement application time cut from dozens of hours to minutes
“And the process that a retiree spends themselves, or an employee, went from, you know, Dozens of hours to six minutes or less.”
Machado Founded Venezuela's First Libertarian Political Party
“We created the first libertarian party in, in Venezuelan's history.”
Hilton: UK policy write-rounds auto-approved after 48 hours without response
“So there's two, two crucial ways in which the bureaucracy enable this. Number one is that the, that if they don't, they're supposed to write these letters to the relevant cabinet committee, and they're supposed to respond. The time, if there's no response, it'…”
Thiel: Building a Manhattan subway costs roughly $1 billion per mile
“It costs, you know, it costs to build a subway in Manhattan. It's like a billion dollars a mile.”
Blank: US was the only WWII nation outsourcing advanced tech to professors
“Then OSR and D is, as some of your listeners and viewers know, basically was a brilliant move by the U.S., the only country who did this in World War II, that outsourced advanced technology to professors.”
Stitt: Oklahoma increased education funding more in 5 years than prior 25
“We've got we've done tax cuts, done more money into education than any other governor in my first five years, and they did for 25 years before I got there.”
Langone: Harlem Children's Zone Receives $27K-$28K Per Student from New York
“I think we get 27, HCZ gets 27 or 28,000 dollars per student from the state of New York.”
Penner: In 1991, Regulated Lenders Completely Stopped Quoting Commercial Real Estate Loans
“In 1991, when the light switch went off for real estate, The real estate industry found itself completely without a lending community to service it. All commercial real estate. So it didn't matter whether you had an apartment, a shopping center, a hotel, an of…”
Lomborg: UN projects global life expectancy will reach nearly 100 by 2100
“The UN estimate by the end of the century, we'll all on average live almost a hundred years on average.”
Verdon: Extropic thermodynamic compute will reach production in a couple years
“I'm, I haven't announced any prototypes yet, but you know, we have our first test chips, and we're iterating, but I think a couple years from now, we'll be able to have this in, in production.”
McGrew: OpenAI secretly trained GPT-4 in first half of 2022
“We had already then secretly trained GPT-IV. So this was the first half of last year.”
Parents in the child protective system were usually in it as kids
“The scariest pattern of all of them is the parents in the CPS system were usually kids in the CPS system.”
Berlia: Over 70% of countries have China as their primary trade partner
“It's, I think something like 70 or 80% of the countries have China as their primary trading partner, right?”
Attia: Suicide is a top 10 death cause for all US demographics over age 10
“For everybody over the age of 10, suicide is the only cause of death that is always in the top 10 by decade. The only decade for which it's not a top 10 cause of death is under the age of 10.”
Holiday: 60% to 70% of young Americans cannot join the military due to fitness
“What, like, 70, 60% of young people could not join the military if they wanted to because they're so out of shape.”
Attia: Only five members of Congress had STEM degrees a decade ago
“When I looked at this again 10 years ago, five of them had an undergraduate degree in some form of technology, like science, engineering, etc.”
Patel: U.S. religiosity dropped from 80% in 1957 to 13% in 1967 before rebounding
“So in 1957, something like 80% of people said religion was very important in America. 1967, something like 13% said it was very important. ... 1977, it's back up to the mid fifties, right?”
Aboyeji: Nigeria adds ten million children per year
“They're literally adding ten million kids a year.”
Lonsdale: Outcome-based vocational funding doubled graduate salaries in several states
“I don't know if you saw it, a few states, we changed the incentives where the vocational schools, they only got money based on the salaries of the students coming out, and so the salaries went up over a hundred percent, because all of a sudden they have to, yo…”
Yang: Two-thirds of young Americans do not identify with major parties
“Two-thirds of young people don't consider themselves either Republicans or Democrats.”
DeWitte: Thorium and Uranium Reserves Could Power Earth for 10B+ Years
“Between thorium and uranium reserves, we could power the planet for well over ten billion years.”
Esper: Pentagon Counter-Drone RFP Mandated Legacy Vacuum Tube Technology
“And not, not long ago, if memory serves me right you know, a requirement came out from somebody within DOD and it said with a drone counter drone technology, it had to be vacuum tube technology.”