The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 752 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lutnick predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in early 2026
“They could be this quarter, as in the first quarter, so then I'd say, well, you have to come back and see me when it's through five, but then you'll come back in a couple of months, and then you'd say, Howard, I just spoke to you for an hour. I don't, you know…”
Calacanis: Nvidia will decline or severely downgrade investment in OpenAI
“I think NVIDIA is not going to take their option to invest in open AI, or they're going to really downgrade at 70, 80%, and they're going to allocate it to other players.”
Sacks: Ukraine is on track to collapse, probably next year
“And what we're on track for is, at some point, Probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse.”
Trump predicts Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon within 90 days
“And within 90 days or so, they're gonna have and could have very well a nuclear weapon”
Calacanis: Democrats will replace Joe Biden with Gavin Newsom after first debate
“This is why I think Biden's getting hot swapped this month. You heard it here first. He's got, no, Gavin is going to be running for president. It's going to be Trump and Gavin. They are hot-swapping Biden after this first debate. Biden is going to get demolish…”
Sacks predicts second Biden term will force Elon Musk to divest X
“So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.”
Mumgaard: CFS expects net energy fusion gain by early 2026
“And we'll start to assemble that machine later this year. And turn it on in this sort of, twenty-twenty-five time frame and get to Q greater than one, more power out than N for the first time probably early twenty-twenty-six.”
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Goldstein: Supreme Court conservative majority will likely vote 5-4 to overturn Roe
“Till June of this year, where they will likely win five to four.”
Sacks predicts elites and media will stop Musk from acquiring Twitter
“Elon is gonna be thwarted by these folks. He's not gonna get control of this company. They're, the vested interest in stopping him by the board, by the new CEO, and by the corporate media and the political elites is too great. They will find a way to stop him.”
Calacanis: Musk will buy Twitter at a lower price by year-end
“My prediction is the Board tries to fight it. Stock collapses. Nobody thinks it's going to get done. Elon lowers his offer, and he wins it by the end of the year, and gives him a lower offer.”
Friedberg: Reduced global crop production will lead to famine in a year
“That means there's going to be less production over the next year. That means famine hits us in a year.”
Friedberg: Russian export controls will almost certainly cause widespread famine in 2022
“That are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen, and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point.”
Chamath predicts Big Tech will hit peak market cap by 2023
“I think that this is sort of peak big tech market cap is probably within the next year or two.”
Friedberg: US West Coast will reopen for business around April 7th or 8th
“New York is going to be fucked for a little while, but I do think that the west coast and with some travel restrictions is going to be able to reopen for business probably around April seventh or eighth, because we're going to see a dramatic decline at that po…”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Pratt predicts he will win LA mayoral election on June 2 with 51% vote
“I keep telling people I'm gonna win on June second with 51% of the vote.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic will be excluded from Pentagon AI contracts under current posture
“And Throbic's not going to be one of them if they continue sort of with their sort of posture.”
Sacks predicts AI will increase demand for knowledge workers
“As you may recall on the prediction show for this year, my most contrarian belief is that AI would increase demand for knowledge workers, not put them out of business.”
Makary predicts GLP-1 drug starter pricing will drop to $149
“With the GLP-I example, for example, it's gonna come down to a 149 dollars for the first three months.”
Calacanis predicts US youth unemployment will reach 14% due to AI
“Nine percent in January, now 10 and a half percent. I think this chart's going right up to 14%, just my prediction, and I think it's because of AI.”
Friedberg: Huawei will deploy undisclosed lithography to rival top chips by 2026
“My early prediction for 20, 26 is Huawei where I think that there's a lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed. That is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China. And Huawei can …”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Vance predicts US will see net negative immigration in 2025
“I think in 2025, we will have the first net negative immigration number in about 50 or 60 years in the United States”
Chamath: Tariffs will generate $300B-$400B extra annual revenue
“We are run rating, 300 to four hundred billion dollars above forecast in terms of our receipts, meaning the revenues that we will take in. And you get to that number by looking at the last three months of tariffs and forecasting forward, assuming a reasonable …”
Summers: Overwhelming majority of tariff costs will be passed to consumers
“Increases in tariffs of this magnitude, the overwhelming part of them will be passed on to consumers.”
Chamath: Trump administration will not capitulate on trade tariffs
“They're gonna go through with this and they're gonna see it through. I don't think you're gonna see this grand capitulation.”
Bessent: Government services will not be cut by DOGE efficiency efforts
“Everyone's hearing cuts, and they think their government services are going to get cut. Super important. They're not.”
Steve Cohen: US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in H2
“We think growth is going to slow to one and a half percent from two and a half percent in the second half, and so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while, and it may only last a year or so, but it's definitely, I think the best gains have be…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts DOGE spending cuts could exceed $2 trillion
“I suspect to be honest, it could be more than two trillion dollars when it's all said and done.”
Chamath predicts the Alternative for Germany party will win in 2025
“In Germany, AFD looks like they will win.”
Chamath predicts a reasonable chance of a major US banking crisis
“I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks.”
Chamath predicts a trillion-dollar drawdown for Magnificent Seven stocks in 2025
“I don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be, but I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the mag seven will be in the trillions of dollars.”
Bannon predicts Judge Merchan will sentence Donald Trump to prison
“Mershon is no doubt to me Mershon is going to give him a prison sentence.”
Chamath: Starbucks sales will decline as GLP-1 drug adoption grows
“And I think if you start to graph the adoption of GLP ones pervasively in America to the drop in same store sales, I think as GLP one adoption goes up, same store sales will continue to go down.”
Sacks: Ukraine's military will collapse within one to six months
“I think that Ukraine within, it could be in the next month. It could be the next two months. It could be the next six months. I think they're eventually going to collapse. They're getting close to being combat incapable.”
Sacks: Gold Star families will protest Tim Walz at campaign events
“If Walts doesn't drop from the ticket, I predict there'll be gold star families protesting all of their events, and that's gonna be a real headache from now till the election.”
Friedberg: Trump effectively secured the 2024 election after the assassination attempt
“I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was that's it. It's over. Trump's won.”
Calacanis predicts a Biden cognitive decline whistleblower within 10 days
“A whistleblower will emerge in the next 10 days.”
Calacanis: Democrats will hold a 10-week, five-debate primary speed run
“They're going to do a democratic primary speed run. Here's what's going to happen. They're going to do five debates in 10 weeks. And then, whoever wins, wins.”
Sacks: Democrats are more likely than not to keep Biden on ticket
“Whoa. I think it's more likely than not that they're not going to replace Biden because the only feasible alternative is Harris and should be worse, and I think it's more dangerous for the country, frankly.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris is the only candidate option if Biden exits
“We are gonna get President Kamala Harris. She's the only alternative.”
Calacanis predicts Joe Biden will exit the presidential race within 30 days
“I just, I'm telling you right now, he is not going to be in this race in the next 30 days.”