The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Lutnick predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in early 2026
“They could be this quarter, as in the first quarter, so then I'd say, well, you have to come back and see me when it's through five, but then you'll come back in a couple of months, and then you'd say, Howard, I just spoke to you for an hour. I don't, you know…”
Sacks: Ukraine is on track to collapse, probably next year
“And what we're on track for is, at some point, Probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse.”
Trump predicts Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon within 90 days
“And within 90 days or so, they're gonna have and could have very well a nuclear weapon”
Calacanis: Democrats will replace Joe Biden with Gavin Newsom after first debate
“This is why I think Biden's getting hot swapped this month. You heard it here first. He's got, no, Gavin is going to be running for president. It's going to be Trump and Gavin. They are hot-swapping Biden after this first debate. Biden is going to get demolish…”
Sacks predicts second Biden term will force Elon Musk to divest X
“So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.”
Mumgaard: CFS expects net energy fusion gain by early 2026
“And we'll start to assemble that machine later this year. And turn it on in this sort of, twenty-twenty-five time frame and get to Q greater than one, more power out than N for the first time probably early twenty-twenty-six.”
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Sacks predicts elites and media will stop Musk from acquiring Twitter
“Elon is gonna be thwarted by these folks. He's not gonna get control of this company. They're, the vested interest in stopping him by the board, by the new CEO, and by the corporate media and the political elites is too great. They will find a way to stop him.”
Calacanis: Musk will buy Twitter at a lower price by year-end
“My prediction is the Board tries to fight it. Stock collapses. Nobody thinks it's going to get done. Elon lowers his offer, and he wins it by the end of the year, and gives him a lower offer.”
Friedberg: Reduced global crop production will lead to famine in a year
“That means there's going to be less production over the next year. That means famine hits us in a year.”
Friedberg: Russian export controls will almost certainly cause widespread famine in 2022
“That are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen, and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point.”
Chamath predicts Big Tech will hit peak market cap by 2023
“I think that this is sort of peak big tech market cap is probably within the next year or two.”
Friedberg: US West Coast will reopen for business around April 7th or 8th
“New York is going to be fucked for a little while, but I do think that the west coast and with some travel restrictions is going to be able to reopen for business probably around April seventh or eighth, because we're going to see a dramatic decline at that po…”
Pratt predicts he will win LA mayoral election on June 2 with 51% vote
“I keep telling people I'm gonna win on June second with 51% of the vote.”
Sacks predicts AI will increase demand for knowledge workers
“As you may recall on the prediction show for this year, my most contrarian belief is that AI would increase demand for knowledge workers, not put them out of business.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Vance predicts US will see net negative immigration in 2025
“I think in 2025, we will have the first net negative immigration number in about 50 or 60 years in the United States”
Bessent: Government services will not be cut by DOGE efficiency efforts
“Everyone's hearing cuts, and they think their government services are going to get cut. Super important. They're not.”
Steve Cohen: US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in H2
“We think growth is going to slow to one and a half percent from two and a half percent in the second half, and so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while, and it may only last a year or so, but it's definitely, I think the best gains have be…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts DOGE spending cuts could exceed $2 trillion
“I suspect to be honest, it could be more than two trillion dollars when it's all said and done.”
Chamath predicts the Alternative for Germany party will win in 2025
“In Germany, AFD looks like they will win.”
Chamath predicts a reasonable chance of a major US banking crisis
“I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks.”
Bannon predicts Judge Merchan will sentence Donald Trump to prison
“Mershon is no doubt to me Mershon is going to give him a prison sentence.”
Chamath: Starbucks sales will decline as GLP-1 drug adoption grows
“And I think if you start to graph the adoption of GLP ones pervasively in America to the drop in same store sales, I think as GLP one adoption goes up, same store sales will continue to go down.”
Sacks: Ukraine's military will collapse within one to six months
“I think that Ukraine within, it could be in the next month. It could be the next two months. It could be the next six months. I think they're eventually going to collapse. They're getting close to being combat incapable.”
Sacks: Gold Star families will protest Tim Walz at campaign events
“If Walts doesn't drop from the ticket, I predict there'll be gold star families protesting all of their events, and that's gonna be a real headache from now till the election.”
Calacanis predicts a Biden cognitive decline whistleblower within 10 days
“A whistleblower will emerge in the next 10 days.”
Calacanis: Democrats will hold a 10-week, five-debate primary speed run
“They're going to do a democratic primary speed run. Here's what's going to happen. They're going to do five debates in 10 weeks. And then, whoever wins, wins.”
Sacks: Democrats are more likely than not to keep Biden on ticket
“Whoa. I think it's more likely than not that they're not going to replace Biden because the only feasible alternative is Harris and should be worse, and I think it's more dangerous for the country, frankly.”
Chamath predicts Biden will not serve out a full second term if re-elected
“I don't think Biden is going to step down at all, but I do think there's a chance A non-trivial chance that Biden wins. And if he does, I don't think he's going to make it four years.”
Democrats will not replace Joe Biden following Trump's conviction
“If you want to make a switcheroo and get a different candidate than Joe Biden, that's not going to happen now because Democrats in the media think that this is their salvation.”
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
Palihapitiya: Google market cap will drop 50% if search share drops 1%
“If you see perplexity or anybody else clip off 50 basis points or a hundred basis points of share in search. This thing is going straight down by 50%.”
Jason Calacanis predicts a dark horse candidate could beat Trump and Biden
“I think we're going to actually see some dark horse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody Wanted.”
Palihapitiya: OpenAI's enterprise value will fall in 2024
“I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down.”
Friedberg: Turkey faces risk of being challenged in NATO in 2024
“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas, this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kick…”
Chamath: You cannot underwrite a $20 billion deal in any industry
“I don't think you can underwrite to get a twenty billion dollar deal done in any industry.”
Sacks predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in Q1 2024
“I think there will be a rate cut in Q-one, and I think this is the Biden bailout.”
Summers predicts Fed will resume rate hikes as inflation remains uncontrolled
“I think there's a larger probably risk that we don't really have inflation on a secure path down below three and a half, and that the Fed thinks it's got it under control, and it doesn't. And it's gonna have to go back to, ah, raising, ah, rates.”
Palihapitiya: Hunter Biden will be in jail by 2024 election
“I think there's a very good chance that Biden's son. He's in jail by the time the election comes around”
Calacanis: Neither Biden nor Trump will be on the 2024 ballot
“I don't know that Biden makes it to the starting line, nor do I think Trump makes it to the starting line.”
Calacanis predicts Donald Trump will drop out within 6 to 12 months
“I believe that you're going to see Chris Christie and Vivek surge. It's going to be a three horse race with DeSantis. And I think Trump's going to be out of the race in the next six to 12 months.”
Friedberg: Federal government will launch structured lending program for CRE sector
“My prediction is the federal government is going to help to monetize that debt, and they're going to help to support that commercial real estate sector through some sort of structured lending program.”
Gerstner predicts up to 40 percent of 2022 unicorns will disappear
“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”