The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 498 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 498 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Shirley: Entitlement fraud money in Minnesota is funding Al-Shabaab terrorists
“And so like the rumors of them funding Al-Shabaab, they're real, because they've been able to funnel all this money.”
Chamath: Democrats will lose California or New York within eight years
“I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is, I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.”
Trump pledges to eliminate the federal Department of Education
“We are going to close up education. We'll have a tiny little group to make sure everyone's teaching at least English. And perhaps proper math, et cetera, but very little. Department of Education goes, and education goes back to the states, and where it belongs…”
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
Arora: Google will be the first $10 trillion company
“I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first 10 trillion dollar company in our lifetime.”
Marshall: Most compute will move to space within 10 years
“I think no question within 10 years, most compute will be putting in space, which, to give you a sense, is a lot of money, like trillions, and will be bigger than any of the other space businesses today, comms, earth imaging, this is why we're getting into thi…”
Sacks: Anthropic will reach $100B ARR by end of 2026
“I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of Tenex this year, exiting the year, call it roughly a hundred billion of ARR, and now the only question is whether they hit a trillion in twenty-twenty-seven, and we can debate w…”
Chamath predicts Tesla and SpaceX will merge by mid-next year
“When Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things, Elon and Elon Corp. Okay. Which will happen. Probably by the end of the year, maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.”
Gerstner: Anthropic could hit $80B-$100B revenue run rate by year-end
“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to a hundred billion dollars in revenue.”
Jensen Huang: Dario Amodei's $1T AI revenue forecast is conservative
“I think he, I think he's being very conservative. I believe Dario and Anthropica is going to do way better than that.”
Dr. Oz estimates $3.5 billion in Los Angeles hospice healthcare fraud
“Just LA County alone, just in hospice and home health care, we believe it's about three and a half billion dollars.”
Lutnick: US tariff revenues will grow from $500B to $1T per year
“And then you have the tariffs are five hundred billion a year now, and they will grow over time to a trillion a year”
Lutnick predicts 6% US GDP growth if Fed cuts interest rates
“And then if they cut rates, and that's the thing, I need a new Fed chair who cuts rates, and if they cut rates... You'll see sixes.”
Wood: Global real GDP growth will accelerate to 7% within a decade
“We believe that the productivity uplift here is going to be so strong during the next five to 10 years. And I think president Trump's tax package is going to turbocharge this, that real GDP growth will accelerate from that three percent where it has been for t…”
Wood: Tesla stock will reach $2,600 per share in five years
“And we put out there five years. Yeah. Yeah. So and I think if he delivers on humanoid robots the way he thinks he is, we don't have enough in there. So our price target is 2600.”
Caruso: LAFD ran short of water, equipment during Palisades wildfire
“We were actually on the seventh loaning equipment to LA Fire Department, who was running short of equipment, and we were actually loaning water because we were bringing in our water tanks when the water hydrants failed to work.”
Sacks: Data shows 3x more people on left endorse political violence
“Last week we showed you plenty of data showing that there was three times as many people on the left who are celebrating or endorsing political violence.”
Yakovenko: The internet will hold the most US Treasuries within five years
“I think within five years, the internet is going to be the largest holder of US treasuries.”
Musk: Mars could become self-sustaining in roughly 25 to 30 years
“I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars, with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align, and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in, R…”
Bessent predicts US will collect at least $300B in tariff revenue over 12 months
“Minimum on a forward 12 month basis, we're going to take in at least three hundred billion dollars in tariff income.”
Trump asserts COVID-19 originated from and leaked out of Wuhan lab
“Where it originally came from was the Wuhan lab. I happen to think it escaped from the Wuhan lab.”
Trump promises automatic green cards for graduates of US colleges
“What I want to do and what I will do is you graduate from a college. I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma, a green card. To be able to stay in this country, and that includes junior colleges too.”
Chamath: Nvidia will likely compete directly with GCP, AWS, and Azure
“So I think it's likely that Nvidia goes on a full frontal assault against GCP and Amazon and Microsoft.”
Musk: China will likely use military force to incorporate Taiwan
“If one is to take China's policy literally, and probably one should then there will be some forceful force will be used for, you know to incorporate Taiwan into China.”
Sacks: Russia will likely use a tactical nuke if Ukraine retakes Crimea
“With the result that I think is quite likely that the Russians will be willing to use a tactical nuke to prevent their total defeat.”
Chamath: Only 22 of 1,276 billion-dollar funds returned over 2.3x capital
“Okay, so now of those 1276 private equity funds, or growth funds, or crossover funds, how many do you think have actually managed to return more than 2.3 times the money? 22 of them.”
Chamath: The four major tech monopolies will be broken up by 2030
“And if I was a betting man, end of decade, these four monopolies will not exist.”
Friedberg: Social Security and state defaults will force bailouts by 2032
“Then the next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 20 32. And that's really where social security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. And I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We're not going to be abl…”
Kratsios: US will return to Moon and deploy space reactor by 2028
“We're going to have American boots back on the moon in 28. We said we're going to have a nuclear reactor in space by 28. We're going to have the first elements of a moon base by twenty-thirty. These are like big, bold bets that take a decade to accomplish, and…”
Sacks predicts an open-source AI ban disguised as uniform safety standards
“An open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that. You know what they're going to say? They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to close.”
Sacks: New AI data center scaling will rely entirely on natural gas
“The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered for the new data centers. That's the only way to kind of get the amount of scale that you need in the next year or two.”
Sacks: Anthropic surpassed $80B ARR and will beat year-end targets early
“The latest we heard is Anthropic is now over eighty billion of ARR. Started the year at 10. It had forecast a hundred billion as exit ARR for the year, and most people said that that would be impossible to achieve. Now it looks like they're gonna do it with a …”
Chamath: Solar will dominate power generation before nuclear SMRs reach production
“By the time, like any of these SMRs actually get near production, the TCO of solar will be like, 10 or 12 dollars per megawatt hour, and it will be 80% of all the power generation.”
Chamath: Global solar will make China's 2030 nuclear fusion reactor irrelevant
“That reactor won't even get turned on until 2030. The entire world will be covered by solar by then, so it won't matter.”
Calacanis: Major enterprise customers will abandon OpenAI and Anthropic for open-source
“And I'll make this prediction here, that you're going to see some of the major customers Of Anthropic and major customers of OpenAI. I'm talking about the eight and nine figure customers, people spending fifty million, a hundred million a year. They're leaving…”
Friedberg: Converting copyrighted data into AI knowledge will be upheld as fair use
“I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end …”
Sacks: AI safety rhetoric is leading toward a push to ban open-source models
“I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models.”
Sacks: OpenAI forecasts $75 billion in exit ARR by year-end
“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”
Cuban: AI will not eliminate 50% of white-collar jobs
“But AI is not going to, you know, take away 50% of the jobs. There's just so much it can't do that regular people need it to do.”
Gerstner: Z.ai's GLM-5.2 contains watermarks showing distillation from Mythos
“GLM 5.2 has watermarks from mythos all over it, right? So we know they were distilling, etc.”
Calacanis: Humans will no longer sort or deliver packages in 10 years
“What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy unleash Optimus inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every, let me state this very clearly, every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10…”
Chamath: California will face bankruptcy and debt restructuring within 10 years
“Then we're gonna deal with a California bankruptcy in the next 10 years, and it is unfortunately, no, and it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt obligations.”
Calacanis: All cab, truck, and package sorting jobs eliminated within 10 years
“Every cab driver's losing their job. Every truck driver's losing their job in the next 10 years. Anybody sorting packages is losing a job.”