The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13,205 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 498 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kratsios: Fauci Did More Disservice to Science Than Anyone in Modern History
“And I think, you know, he did more disservice to science than anyone in, in modern history.”
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Emanuel: Putin and Xi view Trump as a joke, not an equal
“This president punches down and kisses up. He has this fixation about Putin and Xi admiring him as an equal, and they think he's a joke. They think he is not their equal.”
Emanuel: The DSA functions as an opposing party to Democrats
“You're not Democrats. You're a separate party. I'll see you in November. You're living, you're literally beating Democrats. Forget about it. Not interested in it.”
Friedberg: Sam Bankman-Fried would be greatest investor ever if not liquidated
“SBF pretty much would have been the greatest investor of all time if he didn't get liquidated. Same dynamic. I mean, obviously there was fraud in terms of how he was allocating capital, but his actual portfolio over the long run was absolutely correct.”
Altman: OpenAI paused training and may pace frontier AI development
“We paused training, or we may have to pace the rate of AI development to give ourselves enough time for society to harden around some of these new capability levels.”
Chamath: Cultural shifts from immigration worsened UK, Germany, and France
“You can look at the UK and you can look at Germany and you can look at France and you have to ask yourself is the cultural deviation from where they were, has it been better? Or worse for those countries. And I think in general, it has been worse.”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today
“I think Anthropic is worth three trillion dollars today, and it's very important.”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
Sacks: Anthropic CEO refused White House request to take down Fable
“They tried to call Anthropic, They tried to call Dario, and there were a number of conversations, and the TLDR of it is Dario refused, meaning refused their request to take down Fable until this jailbreak could be fixed.”
Friedberg: California election system allows candidates to be appointed, not elected
“It has been set up and structured in a way that with the right construct, you can get an individual appointed, not elected, but appointed to a particular role in government under a, quote, free election in California.”
Friedberg: California's voting laws are a foundational destruction of democratic rights
“This is a foundational destruction of our rights to vote for people in a free democracy.”
Sacks: California election results are statistically impossible and corrupt
“We know something crooked happened. It's statistically impossible. The only thing we don't know is whether it was illegal fraud or legal fraud, meaning they've created so many loopholes and so much corruption in the law that what they did is possibly legal.”
Fetterman: Calling out antisemitism in Democratic Party has isolated him
“One of their signature view is anti-anti-Israel and borderline Just, you know, raw anti-Semitism, and from a lot of these candidates now, too, and that's exactly where, where we are and now that has isolated me in the party, and just calling that what that is.”
Arora: Google will be the first $10 trillion company
“I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first 10 trillion dollar company in our lifetime.”
Marshall: Most compute will move to space within 10 years
“I think no question within 10 years, most compute will be putting in space, which, to give you a sense, is a lot of money, like trillions, and will be bigger than any of the other space businesses today, comms, earth imaging, this is why we're getting into thi…”
Loeb: DOJ threatened to investigate Trump if he commuted Ross Ulbricht
“On the last day of Trump's 45th term, We were certain that he was going to get out, and the Justice Department, for whatever reason, said, if you commute his sentence, we're going to go after you, to the President. So he, as I understand he withdrew the commut…”
Gurley: Anthropic leaders believe they are midwifing a deity, not writing software
“I don't think they think they're writing software. I think they're midwifing a deity here, and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Dr. Frankenstein theory.”
Pratt: LAFD whistleblowers say firefighters were told to abandon smoldering Lachman fire
“All the LAFD whistleblowers were coming to me. Telling me that they were told to leave the smoldering Lachman fire on January first.”
Sacks: Anthropic will reach $100B ARR by end of 2026
“I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of Tenex this year, exiting the year, call it roughly a hundred billion of ARR, and now the only question is whether they hit a trillion in twenty-twenty-seven, and we can debate w…”
Chamath predicts Tesla and SpaceX will merge by mid-next year
“When Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things, Elon and Elon Corp. Okay. Which will happen. Probably by the end of the year, maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.”
Chamath: Palo Alto Networks can penetrate and manipulate every AI model
“What I will tell you is, I'm not even sure if I'm allowed to say this, but a very good, probably the best cybersecurity company in the world, run by one of the very best CEOs in the world. Who may or may not be speaking at liquidity would tell you that they ha…”
Sacks claims Anthropic allied politically with AI doomer and NIMBY groups
“Category number three ironically, again, is Anthropic itself. It has allied itself politically with a lot of the Doomer groups, a lot of the NIMBY groups.”
Gerstner: Anthropic could hit $80B-$100B revenue run rate by year-end
“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to a hundred billion dollars in revenue.”
Shapiro says he withdrew from VP consideration 48 hours before Walz selection
“And about 48 hours before she picked Tim Walz, I pulled out and made clear that that was not something I was interested in doing.”
Chamath: Trump is the most consistent anti-war president in modern history
“I think Trump is and has been the most consistent anti-war president of modern history.”
Jensen Huang: Dario Amodei's $1T AI revenue forecast is conservative
“I think he, I think he's being very conservative. I believe Dario and Anthropica is going to do way better than that.”
Fetterman says claims of undue Israeli influence rely on anti-Semitic tropes
“Well, that, that plays into the, to the anti-Semitism and the tropes, and it's like pulling all the strings, and they're behind.”
Fetterman asserts that Israel is engaged in a just war against Hamas
“They were in a just war, you know, and now remember where it started, and remember what Hamas continued to do.”
Karp: AI will shift economic power from humanities graduates to blue-collar workers
“This technology disrupts humanities trained, largely democratic voters and makes their economic power less, and increases the power, economic power of vocationally trained, working class, often male voters,”
Graham Allison: No evidence Iran was about to attack U.S. or acquire nuclear weapon
“The arguments that were made that that Trump has actually repeated that Iran was about to attack us, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was building an ICBM that was going to attack th…”
Pahlavi declares he is stepping in to lead Iran's political transition
“I've stepped in to lead this transition with the help of many of my compatriots from various sectors.”
Pishevar: Iranian regime massacred over 43,000 peaceful protesters in one month
“As you saw last month they massacred over 43,000 Iranians who were just peacefully protesting.”
Michael warns China is stealing US AI models to unguardrail them
“Your models are getting stolen by the Chinese. They're going to unguard rail them and use them against us.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic exec asked Palantir if AI was used in Maduro raid
“After the Maduro raid, one of their execs called Palantir, who we buy themselves through and asked them was our software used in that raid, which is by the way, classified information.”
Emil Michael: Sam Altman urged Pentagon not to label Anthropic a supply-chain risk
“He was trying to protect anthropic to his credit. He was like, don't do, don't call him a supply chain risk. That's bad for the industry. Let me, maybe I can negotiate terms that they'll find acceptable.”
Michael: Pentagon feared Anthropic would shut off military systems during crises
“It was really the, you worry, I worried about them shutting off our system at a moment of need or them messing with our system at a moment of need. Those were, we were scared.”
Tracey: Julie K. Brown fabricated quotes in Perversion of Justice
“Even though, for example, I caught her fabricating quotes in her book, Perversion of Justice, which was based on the initial Miami Herald series.”
Tracey: No credible rape allegation ever discovered on Epstein's island
“There's never been a credible allegation of rape ever discovered that that took place on that island”
Tracey: No credible evidence supports core intelligence blackmail claims on Epstein
“That's the crux of the Epstein mythology, and it's been systematically unraveled Included partially by this, the disclosure of more Epstein files, but even prior to January 30th or December 19th, the two productions, there was never any credible evidence for a…”
Sacks: Evidence shows Reid Hoffman lied about his relationship with Epstein
“The evidence shows that he's been bold faced lying. About every aspect of his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.”
Chamath: Insider trading in prediction markets benefits society by revealing truth faster
“The use of inside information gets to the truth faster. And I think that has value, especially if it uncovers corruption or misdeeds. And so if people make money along the way, and that's the incentive that it takes for folks to work around what would otherwis…”
Sacks calls Al Gore's climate change push a 1990s hoax
“This whole climate change thing was Al Gore's big hoax going back to the nineties.”
Dr. Oz: CMS fired $200M contractor that produced zero usable code
“There was a company that we fired that had billed us two hundred million dollars, not a single usable line of code”