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Brad Gerstner

79 statements across 22 episodes · 31 bullish · 29 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Nov 4, 2020 by Brad Gerstner · said 109 times in 58 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Brad Gerstner's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (52), David Sacks (28), David Friedberg (14), Chamath Palihapitiya (10), Gavin Baker (3), Thomas Laffont (1), Dan Loeb (1)

tap a year for its mentions
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2026 24 mentions in 10 episodes 2 per episode
2025 20 mentions in 11 episodes 2 per episode
2024 7 mentions in 3 episodes 2 per episode
2023 14 mentions in 7 episodes 2 per episode
2022 37 mentions in 22 episodes 2 per episode
2021 6 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2020 1 mention in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Brad Gerstner, oldest first

Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US will see largest economic migration in country's history
“I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic the single largest economic migration in the history of this country.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:25:16 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner predicts no blue wave and a divided Senate following 2020 election
“And I think what the markets are starting to price in is that this is not going to be a blue wave. There's no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's going to be a divided Senate. It's going to be hard to pass legislation. That's going to be overly onerou…”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:45:26 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
What-if
Gerstner: Institutional checks would have slowed Bernie Sanders' economic agenda
“I would have bet that the system that we have would have been slow enough in moving that, that Bernie would not have been”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:33:39 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Insight
Gerstner: Four years under any president cannot change America's overall trajectory
“Four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of the country”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:33:00 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Apr 17, 2021 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: Traditional IPO system is Byzantine and fails to serve founders
“There's been a system that is pretty Byzantine that wasn't serving the founders who we all you know, care deeply about.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 2:22 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
Apr 17, 2021 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Nearly one-third of Grab's share base unlocked for day-one trading
“So we have almost a third of the entire share base of the company that is available for sale on day one.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 7:53 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
Sep 14, 2021 positive
Opinion
Gerstner: Individual power relative to government has never been greater
“The power of the individual perhaps reflected in crypto has never been greater relative to the power of government”
Brad Gerstner Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 1:06:27 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Mar 26, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Most companies IPOing in the next year will be down-rounds
“I think the vast majority of companies that come public in the next 12 months are going out below their last round's valuation.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 15:32 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Mar 26, 2022 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Snowflake will grow free cash flow over 100% in 2022
“Snowflake this year will grow its free cash flow at over a hundred percent a year. Next year, probably, you know, 80 or 90%. Free cash flow. Not just revenue. Free cash flow.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 23:35 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Mar 26, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Tech market valuations will not bounce back to 2020–2021 peak levels
“Let me be absolutely clear. There is no bouncing back to where we were the last 18 months. That was the outlier. That was the make-believe.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 53:34 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Mar 26, 2022 bearish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter is withholding investment from late-stage private rounds
“You couldn't pry a late stage dollar out of my hand right now because I don't think that we have real price discovery going on.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 27:36 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Mar 26, 2022
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter cuts exposure and consolidates into 5 to 6 positions during downturns
“And so, for us, in moments like this, and I've lived probably through five of them in the public markets, we always do the same thing. Degross. Take risk down. First thing is, like, have less chits on the board. Number two, reduce the number of outliers. Pull …”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 50:11 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Mar 26, 2022 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Late-stage private venture financing market is closed
“Broadly speaking, the late stage private financing market in venture is closed because there hasn't been, right, we're in this buyer-seller standoff.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 26:54 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Mar 26, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Real late-stage VC price discovery will begin in fall 2022
“This fall is when we'll start to see real price discovery.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 27:33 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
May 23, 2022 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Gerstner: Tech valuations will not return to 2021 peaks without zero rates
“Pretend you never saw them, not in venture, not in the stock market, because that is a delusional place to think we're getting back there. We're not, unless we have another pandemic or a nuclear war and rates go to zero, and then we have bigger problems.”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 15:45 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 23, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Venture capital investments from 2020-2022 will produce lousy returns
“I think the vintage of the last 18 months will be lousy. So the capital deployed over the last 18 months won't have a lot of return.”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 14:28 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 23, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Altimeter distributed over $6B to LPs in 2021
“Last year, we distributed over six billion dollars, which was more than all the venture we raised in our first five funds.”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 31:55 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 23, 2022 bearish
Insight
Gerstner: Short everything if 10-year yield hits 7% and inflation stays at 5%
“If you told me you thought inflation was going to be five percent for the next decade and the tenure was going to seven percent, I would say short every tech company in the market. No, no, no. Short everything in the market and don't invest a dollar in venture…”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 40:09 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 23, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Post-COVID inflation will roll over and long-term trends will resume
“I think the much more likely explanation is that the trends that existed for 20 years still exist. They were interrupted temporarily by us saving ourselves from a catastrophe with COVID. The transient thing that everybody has come to make fun of, right? Transi…”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 39:37 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 23, 2022 bearish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter will not join startup deals at 75x ARR
“If somebody calls me up tomorrow and says, Hey, Tiger's doing this deal at 75 times ARR. Do you want to do it? They would have to pry the dollar out of my fucking hand with a crowbar. I'm not risking my money or my partner's money.”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 38:52 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 23, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Gerstner: VCs will only deploy 25-30% of dry powder over three years
“25 or 30%. Depends on price adjustment.”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 19:07 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 27, 2022
Insight
Gerstner: Startup founders should default to a 90-degree course correction
“The default action by every founder today should be a 90 degree course correction unless they have very good idiosyncratic reason in that business in terms of their outperformance to stay the course.”
Brad Gerstner May 27, 2022 ▶ 1:01:44 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
May 27, 2022 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Gerstner: At least 3,000 startups will eventually end up on Layoffs.fyi
“But I'm, you know, there's 714 startups on this list. By the time we're done, there are going to be at least 3000 startups on that list.”
Brad Gerstner May 27, 2022 ▶ 1:09:47 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
May 27, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Private valuations will lag public markets by 6 to 12 months
“I think for venture, There's a six to a 12 month lag to that, so I think you gotta add it to those six months to really get to the market clearing prices for all these companies”
Brad Gerstner May 27, 2022 ▶ 1:01:16 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
May 27, 2022 neutral
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter portfolio company Lacework is laying off 300 employees
“The second company on that list, Lacework, an altimeter software company that's doing terrific, growing hundreds of percent, laying off 300 people, 20%, right?”
Brad Gerstner May 27, 2022 ▶ 1:08:49 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
Oct 22, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: 90% of venture returns go to the top 10% of deals
“The huge difference between the venture market and the private equity market or the public market is that the venture market is unquestionably a power law market, okay? 90% of the gross profits and the returns go to 10% of the deals and 10% of the investors, r…”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 58:19 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 22, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Gerstner: Stock market downside risk is largely priced in
“As I sit here today, yes, we're going to have harder times ahead economically, but it feels to me like a lot of it is priced in. I don't think we have huge asymmetry and skew to the downside.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 38:11 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 22, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Tech faces two years of financial tightening without a V-shaped recovery
“We're gonna have two years of ringing out, right? Because there's no bailout here by the Fed. There's no V-shaped recovery for these companies.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 34:58 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 22, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Apple's IDFA changes 'pickpocketed' $2B from the advertising industry
“Apple's changes with IDFA literally pickpocketed the industry two billion dollars this year under the auspices of privacy.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 18:15 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 22, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Gerstner: 99% of recently funded venture capital startups are garbage
“Certainly if you look at the hundreds of startups in VC land over the course of the last several years 99% of them are probably garbage and will fail and won't work.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 1:01:00 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 22, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Hundreds of billions of dollars in venture portfolio markdowns are coming
“My hunch is that by the time the cash is actually distributed, the returns are going to revert to that orange line mean which means there are hundreds of billions of dollars in markdowns sitting in LPs and GPs portfolios that are likely to come because nobody …”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 49:20 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Mar 3, 2023 positive
Insight
Gerstner: Focus on five growing companies rather than predicting macro
“Find five companies that you think are going to grow and earn more money irrespective of the direction of rates and inflation. Own those and enjoy your life.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 48:08 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brad Gerstner predicts AI will force Google to cannibalize search revenue
“The top of the funnel is up for grabs and all of those dollars over a period, again, a five years, seven years is going to get redistributed and make no mistake. Google is well positioned to make its claim for that, but its claim is going to come at the expens…”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 35:26 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brad Gerstner predicts upcoming AI funding rounds will dwarf Mistral's €105M seed
“There are going to be a couple of monster rounds, I think announced next week, like that are going to make this one look like kids play.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:17:20 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023
Disclosure
Brad Gerstner reveals Altimeter halted new venture investments in October 2021
“We stopped making venture investments in October of 21. Principally because of how we felt about public markets at that point in time.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 55:10 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brad Gerstner claims antitrust regulations block tech giants from $1B+ AI acquisitions
“No hyperscaler can spend over a billion dollars to buy any AI company.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:33:07 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
What-if
Brad Gerstner notes investors could wait until 2003 and capture search upside
“You got the internet right, you got search right, but you didn't have to invest a dollar in search until 2003, and you would have captured 98, 99%.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:19:54 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 16, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brad Gerstner predicts tech hyperscalers will each spend $100 billion on AI
“When you think about what these hyperscalers are going to do, they're not going to spend a billion, they're not going to spend ten billion, they'll spend a hundred billion dollars, right, in order to be in this race.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 1:27:45 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Gerstner says All-In hosts held political dinners for Khanna, Manchin, and DeSantis
“The truth of the matter is this group has hosted dinners for Ro Khanna, for Senator Manchin, We've hosted dinners for DeSantis, right?”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 1:00:17 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter hasn't bought private secondary shares because prices remain too high
“So why hasn't Altimeter purchased any of this? Because the prices aren't low enough. To induce me to get off the sidelines to purchase the shares”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 1:12:55 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 bearish
Insight
Gerstner: Cash-burning startups must reach profitability or sell
“If you are burning cash today, there, you can't come back to the well. So you need to either figure out how to get profitable, figure out how to get fit, or you need to sell your business because, you know, the, there's not an endless stream of money.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 2:31 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Post-9/11 US wars cost $8T and caused millions of deaths
“If we look at the wars the U.S. Has engaged in since September, it's estimated three to four million people have died in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan. We spent eight trillion dollars. Inflation adjusted, we spent four trillion in World War II. Eight trillion re…”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 26:27 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Startup market clearing events will accelerate over the next 18 months
“But, you know, I think over the course of the next 18 months, we're going to see an acceleration of market clearing events as these companies need to raise capital as their employees want to get liquid on shares.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 1:13:29 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner predicts up to 40 percent of 2022 unicorns will disappear
“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 1:14:36 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner predicts 100 percent of 2022 unicorns will do down rounds
“There are 1400 unicorns at the end of 2022, and a hundred percent of them will likely do a down round. And if you said, what is the average that they're going to be down, it's over 50%.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 1:12:10 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jul 9, 2023 negative
Disclosure
Gerstner: Lawmakers say standalone U.S. tech visa reform is dead on arrival
“I sent that to two members of Congress, a Democrat member of the house, a Republican member of the Senate. And I got back nearly identical answers from both of them. They said no chance that happens here dead on arrival because nothing's going to move until we…”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:11:21 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Gerstner: 600 startups at Snowflake summit built ChatGPT apps on Snowflake data
“There were 600 applications. So new startups that applied for their startup contest. They were each using an application of chat GPT built on top of Snowflake data. 600 new companies.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 23:54 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Next 10x in consumer chat AI is moving from retrieval to action
“I think the next 10 X for a chat based interface, at least as insofar as it concerns the consumer is when we move to from information retrieval to action.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 22:46 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: ChatGPT usage will bounce back to 100M–150M level after summer
“I think that what we're going to see is kids come back to school. You're going to see the normal uptick in traffic. It probably hangs out around this hundred million, hundred and fifty million level in terms of usage.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 22:34 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US economy will experience a soft or medium landing
“The distribution of probabilities, the fat part of the curve is that we have a softish medium, you know, sort of landing here.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 48:54 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Brad Gerstner manages $10B and achieved 50%+ YTD returns
“The man who manages ten billion dollars to generate 50% plus returns year to date, the one and only Brad Gerstner.”
David Friedberg Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:47 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023
Insight
Gerstner: Obsessing over macro timing calls lowers investment returns
“The fascination with calling the big short, the big hard landing, soft landing, it's just a sure way not to make much money.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 53:57 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Aug 11, 2023 neutral
Insight
Gerstner: Public tech valuations are at fair value; alpha requires stock picking
“A lot of the positive arbitrage that we saw in 22 has been squeezed out of the public markets and we're close to fair value. So now if you want to generate alpha, this is going to be about picking individual winners versus individual losers.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 1:11:34 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Aug 11, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter bought Meta during 2022 public market collapse
“In 2022, we had this massive correction in the public markets. We believed that they overshot. In part, we believed that because we didn't think we were going to have hyperinflation forever, et cetera. And so you and I invested in, you know, Meta and a lot of …”
Brad Gerstner Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 1:10:26 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Aug 11, 2023
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: AI startups are raising at $600M valuations on zero revenue
“We're seeing four or five, six hundred million dollar deals get done on zero revenue, two, three million dollars in revenue”
Brad Gerstner Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 46:16 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Aug 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 33:07 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Oct 10, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: U.S. deportations averaged 200k under Clinton and 300k under Obama
“Court-ordered removals and deportations average 200,000 per year, 1997 to 2000. That's under Clinton. 200,000 a year. They averaged 300,000 a year, peaking at 400,000 under Obama. Right? Deportations plummeted under Biden.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 22:31 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Gerstner: Generative AI revenue will exceed $1T annually by 2030
“We see about a hundred billion dollars already in incremental generative AI revenue in twenty-twenty-six. That has to grow to well over a trillion by twenty-thirty.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 1:05:13 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Nov 7, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: China has 100 nuclear fission plants under construction
“China has a hundred nuclear fission plants under construction, and we were sitting on our hands, so I think, if anything, they've helped jumpstart that conversation and get us moving faster, and I think that's good for all of us.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 18:06 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 7, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Brad Gerstner predicts three to four rate cuts and GDP reacceleration
“I actually think you are going to get three to four rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a reacceleration of GDP.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 53:25 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Feb 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: 1.5 million families claimed Invest America accounts in five days
“In fact, in the last, I think, five days, 1.5 million families and kids have claimed their account.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 1:12:18 Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
Feb 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: DeepSeek, Anthropic, and OpenAI will launch Blackwell-trained models in 4–8 weeks
“And just this year, like we're going to see the first models over the course of the next four to eight weeks out of deep seek, out of anthropic, out of open AI that are trained on blackwell servers, right? You're going to see a next generation of models Far mo…”
Brad Gerstner Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 43:14 Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
Mar 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Anthropic generating $5B to $6B in a single month
“We're seeing companies like Anthropic at five or six billion dollars of revenue in a single month, which is extraordinary.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 1:06:22 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 13, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter bought more OpenAI shares
“I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I bought a lot more since then.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 28:45 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Apr 10, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner is buying OpenAI shares despite negative market sentiment
“I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 1:00:58 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
May 1, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: There are no dark GPUs sitting idle today
“There's no dark GPUs today, as you know, Brad Gerstner likes to say.”
David Sacks May 1, 2026 ▶ 47:03 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
May 8, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Over 80% of Altimeter's portfolio exposure is in AI and compute
“80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory, et cetera.”
Brad Gerstner May 8, 2026 ▶ 1:03:36 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 8, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: xAI's Anthropic deal will yield $4B-$5B incremental revenue in 2026
“And so I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental four to five billion dollars of revenue.”
Brad Gerstner May 8, 2026 ▶ 9:40 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
Jun 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Secondary share pricing shifted from 20% discount to a premium
“Secondaries over the last couple of years, we're trading at a discount to market. So if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, Right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we c…”
Brad Gerstner Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 2:19 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Secondary market transaction volume is double its 2021 peak
“We thought that was crazy at the end of 21. We're double that now in terms of secondary transactions.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 1:41 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Secondary transactions equal 31% of primary VC activity in 2025
“This is the amount of employee secondary. So this is people buying into Anduril, Anthropic, SpaceX, now represents 31% of all primary venture activity. Is buying into these secondaries in 20, 25.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 1:47 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jul 11, 2026 positive
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2026
Gerstner: Over 1.5M Trump Accounts Created in First 24 Hours
“We had over a million and a half counts created in the first 24 hours.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 1:06:30 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: No current evidence that commodity AI is eroding frontier model revenue
“People are speculating that the intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to collapse to the point that people won't pay for the frontier stuff. There is no evidence of that on the field today. It may develop over the course…”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 38:42 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 11, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Trump Accounts Garnered Over $1B in Deposits Post-Launch
“After the launch of this, we had over a billion dollars of deposits.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 1:06:35 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Gerstner: Trump Accounts Aims to Raise $100B in First 12 Months
“We told the president, we think we can raise a hundred billion dollars in the first 12 months.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 1:08:46 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 11, 2026 positive
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Gerstner: About 25 states plan to add money to children's Trump Accounts
“We have about 25 states who are gonna add money into the accounts of the kids in their states.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 1:31:36 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Gerstner: Software companies cannot keep top talent from fleeing to AI
“It's almost impossible for a software company today to keep any decent sales people to keep any different, decent product development people, because they all want to go work on AI.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 55:01 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: U.S. Will Only Restrict China AI Data If Lead Vanishes
“The reason I don't think it will cause us to change our stance with respect to China is because we're winning. But if the president asks his advisors, you know, one of these days, six months down the line, are we winning against China? And all of a sudden he g…”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:10:54 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Insight
Gerstner: Financing capacity ahead of revenue will make any demand drop violent
“Everything will trade down, you know, together because that's just the leverage that you're pumping into the system. You're effectively backstopping people's ability to build ahead of their revenue. So it becomes much more violent if you ever see demand slippa…”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 45:12 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
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