The Ledger, every show

“It is costing an order of magnitude more to train, and that's why I don't think open source models will be viable because of the training costs.”

“In fact, I would suggest that most board members, just because they went to business school and joined a venture firm, are not qualified to advise an entrepreneur. They're not qualified to challenge an entrepreneur. They're not even qualified to help them judg…”

“I think, 90% of investors add no value. In my assessment, 70% of investors add negative value to a company.”

“And I do believe if Pradeep Sindhu and I hadn't started Juniper, there would be no TCP IP in the public internet.”

“Almost certainly, with no doubt, there isn't a job where AI won't be able to do 80% of 80% of all jobs. So, 80% of all jobs, AI will be able to do most of it within the next three to five years.”

“And sometime in the next 10 years, we will see a company with a billion dollars of revenue that has only 10 employees.”

“I think it's very, you know, BPO as a business will disappear. Software IT services will mostly disappear. Disappear means transform pretty radically.”

“It is costing an order of magnitude more to train, and that's why I don't think open source models will be viable because the training costs.”

“One of my big forecasts is almost all expertise will be free.”

“I would say there's a bunch of MAGA extremists in every part of society, and I hope we can prevent them from destroying democracy, which is probably the most important issue we face.”

“I believe demonstrating positive energy by 25, maybe 26, will be also 10 X faster.”

“OpenAI is going after a big, hairy, audacious goal of building an AGI. That, to me, is worth pursuing as an investment, but also for society. It may eliminate the need to work for society, Lots of issues there, but it could be really, really exciting if it wor…”

“I don't believe if we'd have electric cars dominant today, be 25% of our car, all car sales in California today if Elon hadn't made that world happen.”

“Listening to their customers, which is a good habit if you're trying to be incremental, a really bad thing if you're trying to be revolutionary.”

“So one of my goals in my lifetime is to eliminate most cars in most cities. So if we put a 25 year metric on that, by twenty-fifty, we should be able to eliminate that. Now, there isn't another person in the world who told me that's reasonable. I'm pretty sure…”

“The AI will do a better job than the most expensive tutor or teacher you can hire for your kids if you're rich and can afford anything.”

“A village in India, I will get better cardiac advice, cardiac care, than I can get at Stanford, because Stanford will still, in 15 years, have their cardiologists, and in the village, there'll be AI. Almost certainly true.”

“I think some form of income redistribution by twenty-fifty will be absolutely essential everywhere in the world.”

“And almost certainly, most of this won't be done by large companies.”

“So the vast majority of uses of crypto are illegal stuff. Gun trades, drug trades sex trafficking. Arms trades. It's the worst use of crypto.”

“My bet is, a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today, and my advice to all our startups is ignore the cost of compute, because any assumption you make, any dollar you spend on optimizing your software will be worthless within the…”

“My advice to all our startups is ignore the cost of compute, because any assumption you make, any dollar you spend on optimizing your software will be worthless within the year, and so forget about it.”

“And my advice to all our startups is ignore the cost of compute. Because any assumption you make, any dollar you spend on optimizing your software will be worthless within the year.”

“Beyond the model itself, and I think it's silly to invest in the cloud, people who are buying GPUs to build clouds.”

“I think the Europeans, for example, have ensured they'll never participate in tech again. You know, they keep shooting themselves in the foot.”

“Leaving a community of Muslims behind is such a bad idea. It's the one thing that can slow up a rapidly growing economy.”

“25 years from now. I think the need to work will disappear.”

“Most VCs want to be your friend. And so they are hypocritically polite instead of brutally honest in a way that can actually help you make a better decision.”

“20, 25 years from now. I think the need to work will disappear. People will work because they want to work, not because they need to work”

“In that time, I have not seen, and people get surprised at this, one example of a large innovation that came from a large company or institution.”

“We're investors in Rocket Lab, so I like it a little more. They do have a superior strategy, but SpaceX has done a great job.”

“I worry that the Western political system Ah, and capitalism is by permission of democracy. Ah, so the Western political system will pay more importance to the short term, which is things like job displacement, while in China you might get Tiananmen Square typ…”

“Leaving a population like the Muslim population behind in India would be a huge disaster and could completely change the optimistic projection I have for India if you leave a part of the population behind, and that becomes A source of violence, rioting, things…”

“So I was hard pressed over 40 years to find one area where a large company was willing to take the risk and innovate in a big way.”

“I don't go to a lot of board meetings now. I focus on this because I find most Most boards don't operate this way, and a waste of time for the founders.”

“And so, if you have great managers, good process people, they will work against allowing the company to become great. They'll take, take a great idea and turn it into a good one, And execute a decent idea at lower risk that's more reasonable, more sensible.”

“By the way, this is my single biggest beef with YC. Not enough option pools. Right? Not enough option pools. Not enough focus on recruiting the right co-founders.”

“In the UK, we have something that's used by 40% of all NHS mental health clinics to intake patients. What does intaking a patient mean? A therapist talk to them and classify their mental illness. The AI is much more accurate than the human therapist. 93% accur…”

“25 years from now, it could be that 10,000 dollars today, ah, in twenty-fifty, buys more goods and services that you need, whether it's food or housing or medical services or entertainment or education, than 50,000 dollars buys today.”

“Even in twenty-twenty-five, most investments that are made will lose money. The vast majority. I might even guess north of 80%. But more money will be made than lost.”

“I do think we will see a collapse in valuations. Most likely. You can't never be certain.”

“Every economy should have a stable coin. The Indian government should issue a stable coin, and then great place to do it with the Aadhaar system.”

“Obviously from an open AI perspective, it clearly establishes where open AI is in the competition for the best LLMs.”

“If you want human level intelligence from a model, it'll be a big model, and there'll be a couple of them around, some better than others, some a year or two ahead of others, but I don't think small models substitute For big models”

“By the way, I, since I started the firm 20 years ago, I've never taken a dollar in fees.”

“Obviously from an open AI perspective, it clearly establishes where open AI is in the competition for the best LLMs. Obviously many people wanted that business. And many things were evaluated, and so it's really rewarding to see where Apple thinks the best AI …”

“If you want human level intelligence from model, it'll be a big model, and there'll be a couple of them around. Some better than others, some a year or two ahead of others, but I don't think small models substitute for big models, but they do some things reall…”

“I think what will happen is the expensive PhD will become dirt cheap. My bet is a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today.”