The Ledger, every show

“We were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the internet, and then break through multiple systems on the…”

“So we were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it was supposed to be working in a sandbox and It figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero-day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the intern…”

“For the thing that, to me, feels like, you know, Real AGI. I think very close, like not that much longer.”

“I bet there's some future trillionaires sitting in this room, and I would bet that the startups created today will be much more valuable, much more impactful than startups of the past”

“There will come a glut for sure. And whether that's like in two to three years or five to six, Satya and I can't tell you, but like it's gonna happen at some point, probably several points along the way.”

“So like, you'll see this continue to move, but forced guests from the position we're in today, I would say that society decides training is fair use, but There's a new model for generating content in the style of or with the IPF or something else.”

“Look, there, there's a lot you know, in 10 or 20 years, unless something goes hugely wrong, we'll have, like, unimaginable super intelligence, and I'm very excited to see how that goes.”

“They started making these like giant offers to you know, a lot of people on our team you know, like a hundred million dollar signing bonuses, more than that comp per year. And I'm actually, it is crazy. I'm really happy that at least so far none of our best pe…”

“I can see a path where the work we are doing just keeps compounding, and the rate of progress we've made Over the last three years, continuous for the next three, or six, or nine, or whatever. You know, nine years would be, like, 3500 days, or whatever. If we …”

“It would seem to me that 95% of the world should be betting on the latter category, but a lot of the startups have been built in the former category. When we just do our fundamental job, we're going to steamroll you.”

“I think there will come a time in the not super distant future, like, you know, we're not talking like decades and decades from now, where AI says the frontier AI systems are capable of causing significant Global harm.”

“When we just do our fundamental job because we, like, have a mission, we're going to steamroll you.”

“Years ago, we were evaporating water to cool these systems. They needed tremendous amounts of water, and now we use these closed-loop systems, and a modern data center uses only as much water as like an office building would for, you know, the kitchen, the bat…”

“We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high margin business to be able to afford model training. Like, so much of our future compute plans Will be used to sell inference to customers that even if we can enjoy a modest…”

“I'm actually not a jobs doomer at all. I think there were going to be tons of jobs. I think we'll be busier than we want, not the opposite of that, because I think people will have such creative wishes and such incredible ideas of what they ask AI to help buil…”

“It's not 20 years. I would say we get the ChatGPT moment for robotics in the next, like, two or three years.”

“When we first announced OpenAI, all of these, like, you know, giants of the field, these experts were saying, this is like insane. It's hypey. It's irresponsible. Really respected people like Yann LeCun or whatever, telling journalists like, oh, these guys are…”

“At some level, when something gets sufficiently huge, whether or not they are on paper, the federal government is kind of the insurer of last resort. As we've seen in various financial crises and insurance companies screwing things up. So, I guess, given the m…”

“We're doing well more revenue than that.”

“And that not only will Chachapiti keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing that AI that can automate science will create huge value.”

“Someday we will make an incredible consumer device that can run a GPT-Five or GPT-Six capable model completely locally at a low power draw.”

“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”

“So like, very soon, the world is going to have to contend with incredible video models that can deepfake anyone or kind of show anything you want, and that will mostly be great.”

“So in two years, I think the models will be doing bigger chunks of science and making important discoveries.”

“I think far enough that we can make something that will figure out the next breakthrough with the current technology. Like I, it's a very self-referential answer, but if LLMs can get, if LLM based stuff can get far enough that it can do like better research th…”

“AGI will come, it will go Wuxian Bai. The world will not change as much as the impossible amount that you would think it should.”

“I can say this one because it got publicized in early, not early, a few years into OpenAI, where Elon sent us this really mean email. We'd been working through that for a while and said we had a zero percent chance of success. Like, not 0.10, that we were tota…”

“The fact that somebody else, I really believe, is now gonna go solve all the physics with this stuff, like, I'm so excited to be alive for that.”

“I think it is unavoidable that this is going to happen. I also think it's going to be tremendously beneficial, but we do have to navigate how to get there in a reasonable way.”

“You know, we're definitely not maximum profit seeking, although you could talk to Elon about some of his ventures for that one. And we open source a lot of stuff, we'll open source more in the future, and we're certainly not controlled by Microsoft.”

“You know, the strong consensus Five, 10 years ago, was that first of all the AI was going to come for the blue-collar jobs. Second of all would be the less sophisticated white-collar jobs. Third of all would be the very high cognitive load white-collar jobs li…”

“I think before YC came along, a lot of seed investors way overplayed their leverage over founders and would break term sheets, renegotiate deals, weak confidential information. And then YC was a powerful enough force to say, you can't do this or there will be …”

“The data on this is look at the, say, like, 30 most successful software startups of all time, and try to point to a single example where the co-founders were in different locations. It's really, really tough.”

“The better AI gets, the more some businesses that have nothing to do with AI, I think will be harder to compete with because we'll really want these like authentic non-technological experiences, or we'll care more about Sports teams or whatever. So no, not, no…”

“Finance what is probably already, or at least rapidly becoming the most expensive infrastructure project in history.”

“I mean, we just got, you know, hammered in the, by like all of the intellectual giants of the field for saying that we were going after AGI. And then when we started really focusing on large language models, we got hammered again saying this is completely ridi…”

“Like, I think this is, I think this will be one of the most important areas, even more important than automation of other tasks that AI can do just to help us understand more things.”

“We're finally at the moment where AI is solving novel math problems. It is discovering other stuff. It is, you know, you can argue about how good or not, I would say not very good, but it is writing poetry.”

“This is why I think, like, the world is, on the whole, not going to be that different. Even with superintelligence, like, people are still going to be very fundamentally wired to care about other people, to want to be around other people to interact with other…”

“And we are about to see the greatest boom in people starting smaller businesses that we have ever seen. I think AI is empowering that.”

“At every point on the cost curve, cost performance curve, we will be the best.”

“I think Jalapeno and its successors are going to be a huge competitive advantage for us from that perspective.”

“And for researchers, I suspect that although the current workflow of researcher Is it going to very much be automated? There will be new things in the spirit of research in the same way that there's new things in the spirit of software engineering, even though…”

“My kids will never grow up in a world where they were smarter than computers.”

“The kind of, like, cult worship of the machine god states those people believe that, like, more is going to happen quickly than is going to happen. Eventually a lot will happen, but eventually a lot was gonna happen anyway.”

“What took three months to build at the time that we, each company built over the whole YC startup, could now be done with, like, in, like, seven minutes by a coding agent”

“In fact, if we are right that AI is going to be such a big change, startups will be much more important to making sure that The power of this technology gets widely distributed throughout the economy and society, and it's not just concentrated in a few compani…”

“I would bet that this generally will cut against many years of experience in favor of people who have a lot of fluency with the tools.”