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20VC Assertion Supported
Venture capital fund returns decline as fund sizes increase
“There's a lot of studies that suggest that returns go down as funds get larger in AUM. There's a ton of studies that show that.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 13:31 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Consumer startups reach profitability on $4M to $8M
“These companies in the consumer space, they tend to get to profitability by raising four to eight million dollars. Not 50 to eighty million dollars, as they do in the tech space.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 15:45 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Supported
Honest Company entered recapitalization due to overvaluation
“Where Honest Company is a good company, it just got stuck in a post-money trap. It got passed over for acquisition, and now it was in a little bit of recapitalization mode with Catterton because it raised too much at far too high of a valuation.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 16:14 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Supported
Almost all DTC brands must eventually sell offline
“It turns out that almost every DTC company eventually realizes when they get to a We got to start building our own stores or, you know, selling these products offline because the online channels are just too expensive”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 21:25 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Prediction Held up
Most funded consumer startups will sell below their last valuation
“Consumer companies typically it'll be a graveyard. There'll be some exceptions. Unilever bots, Dollar Shave Club, because they needed the capabilities of DTC. That'll happen a few more times, but many times they will be sold for half of the last round valuatio…”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 30:39 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
a16z Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Traditional retail data providers cover under 5% of CPG brands
“You've got a couple retail level sales providers that on average track 20, 30,000 Products or companies rather each. There's about a million and a half out there. A million and a half, and they cover less than five percent of them.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 20:46 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Large CPG firms do not spend on R&D
“Innovation isn't coming from the large CPG companies because they don't spend anything on R&D. It's coming from the small ones, so they're all looking for that innovation.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 20:37 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Supported
Tech investing returns over the past 15 years were very poor
“Returns in tech Investing over the past 15 years have been very poor.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 11:28 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Union Square Ventures reversed its anti-crowdfunding stance to invest in CircleUp
“Union Square had said very energetically that they would never invest into an online equity investing platform. And they met us, and they changed the Their view because they realized that we were filling a need”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 16:24 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Caldbeck: Grocery operates on thin 2-3% net margins, limiting tech disruption
“Grocery today, two, three percent net margin business. That's hard to strip out a lot of costs from that.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 14:13 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Large CPG companies spend only 2% of sales on R&D
“So today, large CPG spends about two percent of sales on R&D.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 38:49 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
20VC Assertion Supported
USV and Benchmark are rare exceptions to VC fund bloat
“Union Square Ventures, Benchmark, or some other exceptions to what I said.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 14:05 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Partly supported
RXBar raised only $10,000 before selling to Kellogg's for $600M
“RX Bar, a snack bar, raised 10,000 dollars to sell for six hundred million dollars to Kellogg's.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 23:32 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Consumer PE averaged 22% IRR over 15 years with half tech's volatility
“According to Cambridge associates, it's averaged a 22% IRR for 15 years, never negative vintage and half the volatility of tech.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 9:08 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
a16z Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Credit card data shows merchant total sales, not SKU-level purchases
“The problem with credit card data is it can tell you what the retailer is selling, not what was bought at the retailer. So I can see what Nordstrom.com sales were last month. I can't see what pairs of jeans were bought there.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 10:45 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Tech companies spend 14% of sales on R&D
“Tech spends about 14% of sales on R&D.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 38:53 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
20VC Assertion Supported
Halo Top Creamery generates hundreds of millions in revenue
“Halo top ice cream, which is now a couple hundred million dollar revenue company”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:29 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Supported
CircleUp's 2012 seed round was rejected by over 60 investors
“And raised our seed round, which Maveron and Clayton Christensen wrote the book called the innovators dilemma through his hedge fund, Rose Park. They led that back in in 2012. That was a very hard round for us to raise, to be frank with you. And I think we wen…”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 15:43 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
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