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Ryan Caldbeck

Founder & CEO, Waystation AI · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderexecutiveinvestorauthor@ryan_caldbeck ↗LinkedIn ↗ryancaldbeck.co ↗

Ryan Caldbeck is the co-founder and former CEO of CircleUp, an investment platform for consumer brands he led from 2011 to 2020. He currently serves as the founder and CEO of Waystation AI, a procurement intelligence platform for food and beverage companies.

39statements → 28claims → 12claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.92/5average certainty → 2.74/5average debate potential → 4.5/5argument clarity · the sources → 11said about them ↓

8 supported 4 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 15 not checkable as stated how the 28 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

7 predictions · 21 assertions · 2 opinions · 8 insights · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 28 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 12 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 15 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Ryan argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Venture capital fund returns decline as fund sizes increase
“There's a lot of studies that suggest that returns go down as funds get larger in AUM. There's a ton of studies that show that.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 13:31 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
50% certainty 3
86% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.5 / 5 directness 4.8 · coherence 5 · precision 4.5 · compression 4.1

answered every one of 11 assessed questions directly

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

227 words/min while actually speaking · 25.1 um and uh per 1k words

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 3,233 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 2 rated episodes:

host pushback ▾ 5/10
pushed back at the host 4/10
setup questions received 52%

Everything Ryan Caldbeck said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Solely heuristic-based private investing will die off over time
“Over time, we do think that the concept of private investing, based solely on human heuristics, that will die off over time.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 11:01 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Insight
VC managers raise larger funds because management fees outweigh carry
“And the reason they move up market is that the fees for larger funds always outweigh the performance of smaller funds. The people running these funds have incentives to raise larger funds.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 13:48 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2023
Hampton Creek will suffer a massive down round
“From tech VC firms, and we're seeing, you know, the mayonnaise company with a nine hundred million dollar valuation and fifteen million dollars revenue. That math doesn't make any sense. It's offensive. They're not going to have a successful exit. They will ha…”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 17:32 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Insight
Direct-to-consumer is for product testing, not scaling efficiently
“Most tech VC firms look at D to C, direct-to-consumer, as a way to scale a business efficiently. That is completely wrong. It is not a channel to scale a business. It isn't certainly not a channel to scale a business efficiently. DTC is a great channel to test…”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 20:55 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Consumer companies have higher net margins than tech companies
“At the end of the day, consumer companies have higher net margins and are more profitable than tech companies.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 24:16 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Title III crowdfunding will suffer from severe adverse selection
“I think what's more likely, to be frank with you, is that companies will fail in trying to raise from accredited investors and then turn to unaccredited investors. That's adverse selection, and that concerns me.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 9:45 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VC firms operate with 30% to 50% EBITDA margins
“Think of these firms, these VC firms as little companies that effectively have EBITDA margins of 30 to 50%.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 5:33 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Data-driven private investing will start outside Silicon Valley
“I think that that trend will start outside of early stage tech and outside of Silicon Valley. So it'll start first in an industry where there's a ton of data and where business models are largely the same.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 9:49 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Insight
Quantitative VC models lack historical training data for early tech
“There weren't a thousand other examples where there's enough training data to train models to understand what success looks like. There might be two or four. That's a reason why I really struggle to understand how this could be successful in tech, but in other…”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:07 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Assertion Supported
Venture capital fund returns decline as fund sizes increase
“There's a lot of studies that suggest that returns go down as funds get larger in AUM. There's a ton of studies that show that.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 13:31 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Assertion Partly supported
Consumer startups reach profitability on $4M to $8M
“These companies in the consumer space, they tend to get to profitability by raising four to eight million dollars. Not 50 to eighty million dollars, as they do in the tech space.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 15:45 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Assertion Supported
Honest Company entered recapitalization due to overvaluation
“Where Honest Company is a good company, it just got stuck in a post-money trap. It got passed over for acquisition, and now it was in a little bit of recapitalization mode with Catterton because it raised too much at far too high of a valuation.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 16:14 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Insight
Consumer VC requires $1M to $5M checks across many startups
“In consumer, you need to find a way to deploy one to five million dollars into each of a lot of companies. That's the answer. You can't be looking to invest in 50, seventy-five million dollars into an early stage consumer product company, you're going to get j…”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 18:40 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Insight
Quant fund models are the future of private consumer VC
“We think it's a different model, candidly. We think it's a model of developing systematic approach to private investing. So if you're familiar at all in the public markets with AQR, Two Sigma, Renaissance Technologies, any of the public quant funds, We think t…”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 19:03 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Assertion Supported
Almost all DTC brands must eventually sell offline
“It turns out that almost every DTC company eventually realizes when they get to a We got to start building our own stores or, you know, selling these products offline because the online channels are just too expensive”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 21:25 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Prediction Held up
Most funded consumer startups will sell below their last valuation
“Consumer companies typically it'll be a graveyard. There'll be some exceptions. Unilever bots, Dollar Shave Club, because they needed the capabilities of DTC. That'll happen a few more times, but many times they will be sold for half of the last round valuatio…”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 30:39 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Title III of the JOBS Act will not impact marketplace investing
“Our view is that it won't be it won't have a major impact, and we believe it will not have a major impact in part because of the costs to the companies.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 5:49 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
Opinion
Tech companies should not use online equity fundraising platforms
“Well, first and foremost, I think tech companies, to be candid with you, shouldn't use any online platform.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 10:33 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VC fund operations are identical to 20 years ago
“The way a hundred million dollar fund operates today looks basically identical to the way it operated 20, 25 years ago.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 5:13 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Innovators will attack traditional venture capital profit pools
“What I think will happen is that innovators are going to attack those profit pools and the lack of innovation.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 5:54 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Assertion Partly supported
Large CPG firms do not spend on R&D
“Innovation isn't coming from the large CPG companies because they don't spend anything on R&D. It's coming from the small ones, so they're all looking for that innovation.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 20:37 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Insight
Cultural fit is a bad predictor of employee success
“I tend to find the concept of, oh, that person's just not a cultural fit to be a really bad estimate of whether or not that'll be successful.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 27:53 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Insight
Once you start considering firing someone, the decision is made
“When you're thinking about whether or not to let someone go, to fire someone, the decision's already made, and that point is absolutely true. When you're having that consideration in your head, it has gone far enough, and you need to just make the decision.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 28:32 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
Opinion
Offline retailers will prefer Instacart over Amazon as a partner
“Offline retailers need Instacart to work. Amazon is too much of a threat. Instacart is closer to a partner.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 30:08 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?

Show 15statements(15 left)

The other half of the tape: Ryan Caldbeck's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 11 times in 5 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 9Fred Destin 2

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0031622016201720182019episodesmentions
0122016201720182019episodes it came up in
001.51322016201720182019episodesmentions per episode
2019 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2018 1 mention in 1 episode
2016 6 mentions in 2 episodes 3 per episode

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Be Nov 2, 2018 21m
20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp Feb 12, 2016 17m
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