The Ledger, every show
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.
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every show 44 of 44
Smith: Gas Companies Overstate Their Drillable Well Inventories
“A number of companies Describe themselves as having a lot more inventory of wells to drill than we can justify with facts, and I'll just leave it at that”
Smith: Bloom Energy will struggle to secure gas for 2GW+ deployments
“We don't think that Bloom Energy's assets at two gigawatts or more will be able to get natural gas in competition with all of the other assets that are being deployed that will consume gas, given the scarcity that we see.”
Smith: U.S. will start depleting gas storage in 2028 from AI and LNG
“Our work suggests that 26, 27 natural gas is, is appropriately supplied. But as we get into 28, and you plug in this compute, and you assign gas to very specific assets as they're plugged in as well, and you continue to export LNG as we're planning to do with …”
Smith: Gas deficit will hit electricity prices hardest in 2028-2030
“Where you will feel it the most securely will be electricity prices in 28, 29, 20 30 based on our work.”
Matt Smith: US gas infrastructure can only add 20 BCF daily
“After evaluating every producing gas well and the entire pipeline and processing and gathering system, we have the capacity to add about 20 BCF a day of gas production.”
Smith: AI compute will drive 5 BCF/day of base-case natural gas demand
“When you do that, it's about five BCF a day, we think, of very credible incremental natural gas demand associated with Mostly AI compute.”
Smith: AI gas demand could hit 12-15 BCF/day by early 2030s
“If you start to move it down, it's a P-thirty or P-zero, that number, you know, can more than double and be, you know, 12 to 15 BCF a day by the early twenty-thirties if unmitigated.”
Smith: US Gas Producers Will Exhaust Captured Inventory in 4-5 Years
“We get through most of the existing captured inventory of companies in the next four or five years.”
Matt Smith: US built only one interstate gas pipeline in 10-12 years
“In the last 10 or 12 years, we've really built one interstate gas pipeline. That was Mountain Valley Pipeline connecting Appalachia to Mid-Atlantic.”
Smith: U.S. gas storage will fall below historical minimums by 2029
“When you get to the middle of twenty-twenty-eight, We start to break very materially below in a historical way where gas available in storage has ever been before. And by 20, 29, we dropped below all known historical storage evidence.”
Smith: NextEra yieldco will see a profit windfall by the 2030s
“XPLR, tickers XIFR, formerly Nextera Yulco, which is an interesting, interesting set of assets. They have a windfall coming in the latter part of the decade, in early 20 thirties, Ceteris Peribus, because they mark their PPAs to market at much higher values wi…”
Smith: US residential solar will grow exponentially without tax subsidies
“We think residential solar grows exponentially from here even without tax incentives. For the first time, it's very economic with where electricity prices are likely to go to install solar, especially when it accompanies batteries, which make it much more make…”
Smith: Energy could reach 30% of hyperscaler compute costs by 2029
“When we think about the cost of the hyperscalers, right now energy is about budgeted to be about 10% of their cost... If you plug in all of this compute and it's gas powered, and we think gas could double or triple structurally, Even without weather, it could …”
Smith: U.S. Will Face Pressure to Curtail LNG Exports by Late 2020s
“It is pretty important that we don't curtail LNG, although that will certainly be one of the levers as we go out to the late, late decade that we will be forced to think about to deal with rising electricity prices in the country.”
Smith: Utilities Will Face Unprecedented Scramble for Natural Gas by 2028
“As soon as utilities turn the page and start to really hedge or buy gas in 28, and we start to see all these natural gas generating companies start to think about securing supply, you're gonna see, you're gonna start to see a knife fight to secure natural gas …”
Smith: Natural Gas Forward Curves Will Move Up Materially in Six Months
“People are not really willing to look past summer heat or a slight outage in an LNG facility right now, but in six months, we start to see these companies roll forward to look at 28. In six months, you can start to see the forward curves really move up materia…”
Matt Smith: US LNG exports scheduled to hit 35 BCF daily by 2030
“As of today, we're scheduled to export up to 35 BCF a day by the end of 2030. And in that case, the dye has been mostly cast.”
Canadian government subsidies cover 80% of Latergram's tech salaries
“80% of our salaries for tech is covered by the government.”
Smith: Natural gas is overtaking petroleum as America's most important fuel
“Natural gas, which is over 40% of US power generation, has become, or is imminently going to become, the most important fuel in the country. It's overtaking petroleum, given the amount that we use now for generation.”
Smith: US will supply about one-third of global natural gas in several years
“As the U.S. Will be about a third of global gas supply in several years our allies and other FTA and increasingly non-FTA countries are reliant on-”
Smith: US Unlikely to Find New Major Shale Gas Basins
“We've accounted for all of the major productive basins in the country, and I do not think we're likely to be surprised by some new major shale find.”
Smith: Natural gas forward curves are flat through 2030 at $3.50-$3.60
“Gas, which is currently at three dollars and 50 cents, three dollars and 60 cents, going out to 26, 27, in 28, the curve is flat. 20, 29, 20 30, the curve is flat because people believe the gas is abundant.”
Smith: Gas at $8-$10 will shut off U.S. spot LNG exports
“At eight or 10 dollars, We think you potentially shut off some of the U.S. Exports where there are spot cargos, and they are leaving the border to capture uplift in Europe or elsewhere.”
Smith: Expand Energy controls roughly 70% of core Haynesville wells
“They probably control 70% of remaining core Haynesville wells.”
Smith: Hyperscaler decisions rely on flat $3.50 natural gas forward curve
“Everybody who are making decisions in this moment are using the forward curve for natural gas, which is flat, a little backward, a little contiguous, mostly flat out to the twenty-thirties, in the mid threes.”
Smith: Strong SaaS Acquisition Multiples Currently Range From 7x to 12x
“And so I would say like in general SAS, At an exit level, where we're seeing, you know, companies be acquired right now, I would say a good outcome is in the high single digits to, you know, call it like seven to 12, would be like, that's a good strong outcome…”
Smith: Venture capital market will return to equilibrium over next two years
“So I think it's coming back, but I do think that over the next Call it two years. I don't know if I have a crystal ball good enough to look at four years, but call it over the next two years. I see a return to kind of normal. I wouldn't say like back to like s…”
Matt Smith: US exports 15 BCF daily of total 110-112 BCF gas production
“Today we're exporting about 15 BCF a day of nameplate US export capacity. Now that fifteen billion cubic feet is on a base of about a 110 to a 112 BCF a day of natural gas production in the US.”
Smith: Bloom Energy Series 6 fuel cells consume 150M cubic feet/day/GW
“Six series Bloom Energy, you know, kind of latest gen fuel cell will take a hundred and fifty million cubic feet a day of gas per gigawatt.”
Smith: EQT is shutting in natural gas production
“In fact, EQT is shutting in natural gas right now because they think it'll be more valuable later.”
Smith: Expand Energy trades at four times forward EBITDA
“The stock has plummeted over the last six months as a part of that search, and it's trading at four times EBITDA on a forward curve where no one believes what I'm telling you to be the case, even though we think modeling the facts gets you to a much higher gas…”
Smith: China Is Building Roughly 39 Nuclear Reactors, Mostly Gigawatt-Plus
“Today, China is building 39 plus or minus nuclear reactors. 34 of them are one gigawatt plus. I think a third of those are modeled after the AP 1000.”
Smith predicts Thinkific will exceed $100k MRR by the end of 2016
“I think they're well on their way to going well over, I don't know, probably over a hundred K MRR.”
Smith personally emailed nearly 20,000 pre-launch Latergram sign-ups
“I think I personally emailed all, almost all 20,000 of people those signups, and spent, you know, most of my evenings writing these emails, ah, and engaging with people, and I think when people see, you know, a founder doing that, they say, and they like the p…”
Latergram approaches 500,000 registered users
“We're closing in on half a million, so just shy of that.”
Latergram counts roughly 40,000 monthly active users
“We're looking at about 40,000 monthly active right now.”
Latergram averages approximately 5% monthly churn
“Our churn has been a bit variable recently. There's been a lot of a lot of competitors coming to the space, but on average we're looking at about five percent.”
Latergram operates without any paid customer acquisition
“No, we don't do any paid acquisition at this point.”
Rocketship.vc used a growth algorithm to find and cold-email Latergram
“Cold emailed us, wanted to put money in, said they liked what they're doing. Apparently, so they say there's some of the guys that really early investors in Facebook so back when Facebook was like, you know, eight employees or something like that and they deve…”