The Ledger, every show

“Of the 1260% were marked by four firms, ok? SoftBank, Tiger, Coachu, and Insight.”

“So if you're betting on generative AI for the first time in 23, 24, 25, good luck making returns.”

“And party rounds did incredibly well. For the last five years, but I suspect party rounds are going to do the worst for the next three years, because getting conviction across three or four small investors that each own seven, eight, nine, 10% of your company …”

“The FTC has not been looking too kindly on these mega deals. And so I think the mega deals just aren't going to happen for a period of time. I don't know what will happen post November, but even either administration, I'm not convinced they're suddenly going t…”

“1998, 99, 2000 are nothing compared to the overvaluations of twenty-twenty-one.”

“So we're two years into a correction. I think it's going to take another five.”

“You're already seeing it, you know, we're reading about it, like, almost monthly in the press. Yes, you're gonna see a lot more of it.”

“Where, where are returns going to come from? They're going to come from private equity. So private equity firms are going to step in and buy assets from venture capital funds. They will either buy A company or they will buy secondary.”

“Of the 1221 and 22 that were funded, my guess is a thousand of them will never achieve an exit value of a billion dollars or more.”

“It might take four times more VC meetings to get one check than it did only three months ago, but prepare for probably the hardest economic environment of any of our lifetimes, not just yours if you're a younger founder, but of anyone alive today.”

“So when we're looking at companies, we're looking at bright-eyed, bushy-tailed, we're going to build this for the next 10 years, we're in the first six to 18 months of our journey, as opposed to a company been around for six years and suddenly finds itself in …”

“I suspect it's going to be harder to raise funds for the next five years than it was for the last five.”

“It doesn't come back. It is back. It's back. Pay to play is on the table.”

“Yes. In fact, I think it'll go up from 20%, not down.”

“I think we've returned to a moment where startups and Silicon Valley and tech have become fashionable, and everyone wants to do it, which means you're gonna have too many companies, too much money, and too many people who aren't truly entrepreneurs, kind of cl…”

“25% of all funds deployed their entire fund in twenty-twenty-one. 25%, one in four. The median time to deploy in twenty-twenty-one was 1.7 years, okay?”

“But the twenty-year average is six X. And right now, if you're growing at 20%, you're probably trading at Forex.”

“If you want to do generative AI in 20, 23, 24, you're paying 44% premium to do a generative AI deal.”

“At the B round, it's like 200% premium to an enterprise software company.”

“If seventeen million people are out of work for six months or more, Spending is going to go down everywhere across almost every category, maybe other than grocery and pharma.”

“40% decline right now in quarter over quarter for second quarter. And we're already seeing it in the data of people starting to cancel marketing orders that we know are being canceled.”

“The market for A and B between 2010 and 2022 went up by nine X. So nine times more capital in those markets than in any other sector of the market. And as a result, valuations went up like 300%.”

“That 2012 fund for us, I think is going to be a phenomenal success. By any measure, it'll, it should return north of five X capital cash on cash.”

“Institutional money is way more likely to be in fund two and fund three and fund four. Whereas friends and family money's not as likely to repeat.”

“Public stock markets in November of 2021 software was trading at 24.6 times NTM next 12 month revenue, 24.6. If you look at the ten-year average, the ten-year average public market, 9.6. The twenty-year average, 6.2.”

“So if I take all of software and all internet companies, there are 343. That's it. That's the whole universe. That includes Facebook, Google, that includes Amazon, all of them, 343.”

“So there's been more than a hundred spin-outs now from SpaceX, more than a hundred. They've raised more than ten billion dollars, and the vast majority of them are in Los Angeles.”

“So if you don't have a plan for that happening, both in terms of how you gracefully do it, what you're asking for in return, and how you size your cost base, you're going to be in for a huge shock, and that shock is going to come in Q four and Q one.”

“I mean, look at zoom going from. Ten million monthly actives to two hundred million or daily actives, two hundred million in three months time.”

“A lot of companies won't succeed because people hold on artificially to prices that are too high.”

“SPVs are much harder to raise now, and so your ability to protect not just your winners, But also your companies that are struggling and need to get from point A to point B to maybe someday be a winner, it's going to be much harder.”

“And the industry average right now is 2.2 years. And you have some firms coming back every 18 months.”

“So I don't think that's going to be a major problem. What'll be a major problem is people coming into your next fund, because if they find themselves in a bad economic situation, what they end up doing is cutting commitments to managers that they've had for a …”

“We just agreed to sell Maker Studios to Disney for almost a billion dollars.”

“So, people were paying in twenty-twenty-one 25 times next 12 month revenue, ok? Over the last 10 years, they were paying just under 10 times.”