The Ledger, every show

“I can very clearly see what we're doing now and like what we're doing next. And I don't see the limit to the scaling laws. Like if you're just sort of thinking about the raw capability of the models and like how well you can condition them to reason over incre…”

“We've had models more interesting than Deep Seek R-One that, like, we didn't even We chose not to even launch them.”

“95% is going to be AI generated. I think very little is going to be line by line is going to be human written code.”

“It is already the case that I think the frontier models are probably better like health diagnosticians than Your average GP is”

“You know, one of the things that Sam Altman and I have talked about a lot is like, I suspect that this year, like the next trillion dollar company gets founded.”

“But most of the value has to be in the products. Like, you know, we don't build infrastructure just for the sake of infrastructure. Like we build infrastructure so people can make product.”

“Most of those assertions that people make are like most of the assertions that people make are just unfounded in any kind of science. Like no, no one's gotta, and like the measurements we do have show that there's a pretty big disconnect around what some peopl…”

“People who think of models as repositories of factual information, and they're treating them like the world's worst and most expensive databases. Like it's not, not super useful.”

“It basically means, and like, I don't think this is next year, but it's probably not going to be 10 years. This whole notion that the, That, that you have teams of people who are, who, whose job is to go anticipate a bunch of very granular user needs in some n…”

“The user interface that surfaces, those capabilities will probably be agents. And, you know, product managers, like I don't all don't believe in this, like one agent. For everything sort of theory. I think you'll have a lot of agents.”

“Your product managers are probably going to have to be domain experts, like people who sort of deeply understand something like medicine or, you know, drug discovery or early round venture investing, or, you know, like, you know, just sort of pick your thing.”

“So we should really, really, really respect the capability of Chinese entrepreneurs, scientists, and engineers. They are very good. Like we shouldn't, you know, if you are underestimating it like you shouldn't”

“I just had super, super high confidence that we were never going to get to the point where we're like, all right, we got enough compute.”

“We started with this assumption that AI is going to be a platform and the way that people are going to most usefully Make or the way that people are going to make most use of the platform is by building tools that assist people with jobs. So it's like less abo…”

“I think it's honestly harder for some, Machine learning people than it is you know, for like a brand new entrepreneur who's, you know, just looking for an interesting thing to go do because it is a very different way for a machine learning team to do its work.…”

“Every learner in the world, ah, deserves to have access to that individualized, high-quality instruction at no cost. Which seems like a reasonable thing. And then when you think about how you go realize that in the world, like the only way that you can realist…”

“So like I think all of the, like the world is just sort of full of these jobs where you know, really, you know, affecting change on a physical system, like doing something in the physical world, like all of those things like we will need probably many, many mo…”

“Especially because we're going to have to rebuild our entire power generation and distribution system, like in our children's lifetimes.”

“The thing that I will say is we fiercely compete with a whole bunch of these folks. But, like, one of the things that I don't do is, like, look at any of those companies that you just named and, like, worry that they're going to do something that like, is, lik…”

“What you want models to be able to do is to be able to reason over information. So like if you give them access to information, like how well are they able to reason over a set of information to go do something that's useful for you? And so you just need diffe…”

“A little bit of that is because you get, you know, maybe like a two X benefit price performance from hardware every generation. Like if you're lucky but you get a much bigger improvement price performance wise from. All of the things that you're doing in the s…”

“All of the economics in search go to like somebody who's stood up a gigantic infrastructure and who's sort of running like a whole. Search business like with its own feedback loop.”

“I think one of the things is going to happen because I know lots of people are working on it right now is memory is going to get a lot better over the next year or so, which means that as you're using an agent, like, and it remembers more and more about your p…”

“I think there's going to be more over the next year of you sort of dispatching your agent to go do something and it like goes and works while you are not paying attention to it.”

“Like, I think honestly right now there's a bigger gap than there was even two years ago between what the most capable frontier models can do and what they're being used for.”

“I think if you think about AI, like, by far, in a way, the most important partner we have is is OpenAI.”

“I don't think the smartphone helped much at all just in terms of productivity and knowledge work.”

“At one point I seized the entire GPU budgets for the whole company. And I was like, we will no longer peanut butter these resources around. Like we will focus them because it's all capital intensive. It's like, we will just allocate these things to things wher…”

“So there was a huge diversity of opinions inside of the company on the wisdom of doing doing this.”

“If you look at things like Bing chat or Microsoft three 65 copilot or GitHub copilot, you end up using a portfolio of models to do the work and like you use it for performance and cost optimization reasons, and you use it for you know, just sort of precision a…”

“ChatGPT was a 10 month old model with a little bit of RLHF on top of it. And, you know, like by, you know, admission, like You know, not a beautiful user interface. It was just sort of a way to get something out there because you know, you needed some practice…”

“Models aren't products and infrastructure isn't a product.”

“Probably the place where the most interesting products are where you've made the phase change from impossible to hard. So like something that like literally you couldn't do at all before this technology exists has become hard now because like the things that h…”

“We do not have a, Yeah. Sort of robotics exponentials right now. Like we've got a cognitive exponential.”

“All of the, you know, the industrial revolution predictions about, you know, four hour work weeks and we're all going to live lives of leisure is bull crap. Yeah, like just hasn't happened.”

“It will touch all of Microsoft's product portfolio. Like the way that you will interact with our software will be substantially different by the end of this calendar year than it was coming in.”

“OpenAI doesn't have GPTV and wide distribution, but, like, it'll get to wide distribution at some point in the not too distant future, and so, like, you'll have these, like, very powerful multimodal models”

“I think most of the stuff that people ought to be thinking about is deployments, making sure that as you deploy the technology, getting the requirements and the expectations right there is the most important thing.”

“The agents, they will definitely be less transactional, less session-oriented going forward.”

“There's a big research initiative. We've started at Microsoft research about a year ago where like the whole mission of the lab is like eliminate tech debt at scale using these new AI tools.”

“I think Lama too is just like Lama going to be an important building block that people are going to want to use to build AI software.”

“The most valuable things that get done on the platforms are not the things that got deployed in the first year or two of the platform change.”

“The thing that it really does in our observation with developers more than anything else is it helps keep them in flow state. Longer than they otherwise would.”

“We have proof points of, you know, a sort of a 20 watt organ that you know, sits between our ears that, that is artificial general intelligence that is many, many, many orders of magnitude more efficient than the Digital artificial neural networks that we're b…”

“Like AI is, Like, model's not a product. Like your understanding as an entrepreneur of, like, you know, who is your user? Like, what is their problem? Like, what can you do to help them? And then, like, determining whether or not this AI stuff is actually a us…”

“We were hiring these brilliant, brilliant people at the time, and the way that we did hiring was kind of crazy. It's like, all right, well, if you're smart, just come work here. And like, we have no idea like what exactly it is you're going to do. And you like…”

“When I go sit In OpenAI, it really reminds me of early Google days, and it's about the same size Google was when I joined, and so, like, I couldn't figure it out for a while, and I was like, wow, this is, like, really giving me, like, you know, early Google no…”

“And when we looked around, like OpenAI was clearly the highest ambition partner that was in the field, you know, and I think still their ambition is just breathtaking in what it is that they're trying to accomplish.”