Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott explains his mental model for identifying breakthrough product opportunities during major platform shifts like generative AI.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott and Altman suspect the next trillion-dollar company is founded in 2023
“You know, one of the things that Sam Altman and I have talked about a lot is like, I suspect that this year, like the next trillion dollar company gets founded.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott predicts the AI industry will never have enough compute capacity
“I just had super, super high confidence that we were never going to get to the point where we're like, all right, we got enough compute.”
Opinion
Scott: AI will create value through assistive tools, not full autonomy
“We started with this assumption that AI is going to be a platform and the way that people are going to most usefully
Make or the way that people are going to make most use of the platform is by building tools that assist people with jobs. So it's like less abo…”
Insight
Scott: Generative AI transition is harder for ML veterans than new entrepreneurs
“I think it's honestly harder for some, Machine learning people than it is you know, for like a brand new entrepreneur who's, you know, just looking for an interesting thing to go do because it is a very different way for a machine learning team to do its work.…”
Opinion
Scott: AI is the only realistic way to deliver universal 1-on-1 tutoring
“Every learner in the world, ah, deserves to have access to that individualized, high-quality instruction at no cost. Which seems like a reasonable thing. And then when you think about how you go realize that in the world, like the only way that you can realist…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: Society will probably need many more physical-world jobs than today
“So like I think all of the, like the world is just sort of full of these jobs where you know, really, you know, affecting change on a physical system, like doing something in the physical world, like all of those things like we will need probably many, many mo…”