The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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a16z Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 8:48 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:02:07 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
BG2 Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Musk's Infrastructure Became the Fourth-Largest AI Hyperscaler
“In 30 days, we went from not being an AI hyperscaler to being number four, and we passed a lot of companies, including Oracle.”
Gavin Baker Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 18:37 The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang · Bg2 Pod
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Didn’t hold up
xAI will release the first frontier model trained on Nvidia Blackwell
“One, we will see the first models trained on Blackwell in early, I think the first Blackwell model will come from XAI. And the reason for that is just, it's a, According to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.”
Gavin Baker Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 12:06 GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview · Invest Like The Best
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker predicts multiple independent frontier AI labs will be acquired in 2025
“And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 51:21 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker predicts frontier AI labs will stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
“As far as a specific prediction for 25 because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading-edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:04:42 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Safe Superintelligence Plans to Release Its Model in August
“SSI says that they're going to come out with, you know, with their model in August, you know, there's this whole generation of new labs that are focused on this.”
Gavin Baker Aug 4, 2026 ▶ 27:52 Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Anthropic was EBIT positive in the most recent quarter
“They were EBIT positive per the Wall Street Journal in the most recent quarter”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 4:38 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Gavin Baker: xAI has the largest Nvidia Blackwell cluster
“They have the largest Blackwell cluster.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 13:00 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Tariffs are traditionally a Democratic position that Clinton and Obama ran on
“Tariffs are traditionally a democratic policy position. You know, Clinton ran on them. Obama ran on them to be a slightly lesser degree.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:25:15 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
TBPN Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Meta Privately Tells Investors It Will Not Monetize GPUs Externally
“Right now Facebook is, you know, Meta is telling investors there's like no chance that we're gonna, you know, monetize GPUs externally.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 10:38 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Claude Opus generates 70% fewer tokens per question
“There's an analysis Claude is even on Opus is generating 70% less tokens for the exact same question.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 9:29 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Google JAX and Meta PyTorch teams fought publicly on X until leaders called truce
“The JAX team at Google got into a giant fight with the PyTorch team on Meta on X, and the heads of each company's respective AI division had to make a public truce and instruct their troops to stop fighting.”
Gavin Baker Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 1:03:00 Gavin Baker – Truth-Seeking and Crossover Investing at Atreides (EP.489)
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Kimi Model License Demands 30% Revenue Share on Downstream Usage
“And even then the Kimi license, something that I don't think a lot of people appreciate is the Kimi license stipulates a 30% share of any revenue. So, like, Kimi has taken a 30% cut of all the revenue generated on its, and this is because it's open weights, no…”
Gavin Baker Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 32:37 Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
BG2 Assertion Contradicted
Baker: $50B in Starlink Revenue Is 0.3% of Global Telecom TAM
“Fifty billion, that's, you know, 0.3% penetration of the global telecom market.”
Gavin Baker Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 13:17 The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang · Bg2 Pod
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Contradicted
Baker: SpaceX valuation compounded in the low 30% range annually for a decade
“SpaceX compounded it, you know, low 30% per year for whatever that was, a decade.”
Gavin Baker May 20, 2026 ▶ 12:08 Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Anthropic researchers report substantial hiring driven by candidate posts on X and Substack
“Anthropic researchers have said a lot of our hiring comes from what people say on X. And what they might write in a substack.”
Gavin Baker Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 1:03:20 Gavin Baker – Truth-Seeking and Crossover Investing at Atreides (EP.489)
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