The Ledger, every show

“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”

“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”

“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”

“Open source frontier, which today consists of, you know, Chinese models with stolen American tokens.”

“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”

“What you have to compare it to is the cost of launch, and with Starship reusability, that goes to under a billion, so the economics just instantly flip.”

“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”

“If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that Simple.”

“The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone. And I think the Anthropic S-one is kind of going to make that clear.”

“And Anthropik continues to grow really strongly and is almost certainly pumping out significant amounts of free cash flow.”

“And the reality is, like, given the deals that are being cut now, when a data center goes in, electricity prices actually generally go down for everyone around there because of behind the meter deals.”

“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”

“I think Nvidia can join the frontier and become one of the world's largest cloud computing companies. Much faster than people think.”

“It is starting to feel or seem like there may be a CCP funded campaign against AI and data centers in America.”

“All GPUs use Grok or Cerebrus for decode, and then those older GPUs, they have a useful life for 10 or 15 years, and this means that you can finance GPUs.”

“And what I just mean by that is in Anthropik, they added eleven billion dollars of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that The SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between five and 10 trillion dollars of value. And I would say argua…”

“If Taiwan Simi did what Jensen wanted, I think NVIDIA could sell two trillion dollars of GPUs. In 20, in 26 or 27. Maybe two and a half trillion. Maybe three trillion.”

“And the disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15 year lives.”

“AI has net destroyed. Even if you count cursor cognition, the most successful AI natives, value has been, trillions of dollars of value has been destroyed by AI at the application layer.”

“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”

“In space, cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite, and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get. So all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.”

“And the ROI on AI has Empirically, factually, unambiguously been positive. Like, I just always find it strange that there's any debate about this, because the largest expenditures on GPUs are public companies. They report something called audited quarterly fin…”

“And then geopolitically, China thought they had the leverage. They're gonna realize, oh, whoopsie daisy, we do need the Blackwells. And unfortunately, they'll probably, for them they'll probably realize that in late 26.”

“If Blackwell comes back to China, which it seems like it probably will happen, that will also be very good because then Chinese open source will be back.”

“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world, in this world, In the next three to four years is data centers in space.”

“If Taiwan Simi opens up at the same time when, you know, data centers in space relieve all power constraints, but that's like, I don't know, five, six years away that data centers in space are a majority of deployed megawatts.”

“At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid In America was dark. Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs.”

“Larry Page apparently internally said, I'm happy to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. And I think that is the mentality for sure at Google and perhaps Meta. It's just seen as existential and you have to win.”

“GPT-V is a smaller model. It was not designed to be better. It was designed to be more economical for OpenAI and Microsoft to run. Any reference to GPT-V and scaling loss is crazy.”

“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”

“I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's going to get a very, very a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine.”

“Just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them all.”

“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”

“But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're gonna have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.”

“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”

“Anthropic is now in their culture interviews saying, how would you feel if the equity went to zero? Because we're looking for people who are mission aligned.”

“They, I, for sure, I don't think they will generate free cash flow anytime soon. I think they're gonna generate a lot of operating cash flow, and then they'll use that to buy a lot of, you know, GPUs XPUs, whatever, whatever I'm gonna call them.”

“We calculate, you know, Nebius and Corweave both gave some interesting disclosures. But you can kind of get to a nine to 10 month payback for Nebius”

“And then SpaceX, because they build these really big clusters, and I think a really important point is they bring them on fast. They have an even faster payback, and they can monetize it, you know, higher”

“I do think you're going to see American open source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier.”

“And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”

“There are, you know, there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders, and that is the kind of in the epicenter of the blast zone.”

“I think a very plausible outcome is one in which frontier tokens Or 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume, and that's good for everyone, and everyone wins.”

“I think four to five, I think four to five hundred billion is within the zone of like realistic and achievable.”

“Corweave said that they are renting Amperes at economically profitable rates today for 2029. So an Ampere that came out in 2020 is going to have a nine-year life, and I think that's what Nvidia sees”

“Essentially, you have the contracted base of installed compute trading at a massive discount to the current spot market. And as those contracts roll off, and Compute gets repriced higher, and Spock can decline, and Compute will still get repriced higher. You k…”

“If you look at the amount of gigawatts that are supposed to come on, and consensus estimates for hyperscalers, they're effectively modeled, and these are gigawatts of Blackwell and Rubin. Rubin being NVIDIA's next chip, Blackwell being the current chip. They a…”

“Operating cash flows go up, and you could fund this out of, most of this out of operating cash flows, maybe all of it. Like if it reprices at current rates, you could probably fund all of it for the next several years.”