The Ledger, every show

“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”

“Well, actually they were using shell companies to get chips from TSMC and using Different methods of like sneaking HBM, which is memory from, you know, Korea through Taiwan to China, right?”

“Microsoft is not building Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”

“Huawei is still getting you know, wafers in Taiwan from TSMC through, like, shell companies, right?”

“The BLS has this entire Bureau of Labor Statistics has this entire, like, set of, like, 2000 tasks, And so he did that with AI, which ones can be done by AI, which ones cannot and grading them across a rubric, you know, about three percent are doable now with …”

“And so I think in the next six to 18 months, we'll start seeing real breakthroughs in robotics that enable few shot learning, i.e. There's a pre-trained robot model, and now there's a robot that you have hired or bought or whatever. You showed a few examples a…”

“Just in January, it went from four percent of or two percent of commits on GitHub to four percent of GitHub commits were done by Cloud Code, right?”

“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”

“In fact, they missed revenue last year significantly and yet they got bought, right? Because the value of the IP was there and the value of the team.”

“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”

“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”

“Power is less than 10% of the cost of the cluster. Right? So, so like, it's that 90% you're not saving anything on.”

“Your revenue is like fifteen billion ARR this month, maybe, right, on a run rate basis. It'll get to 20 by the end of the year pretty, pretty clearly. Maybe it's like 16 now, but how do you pay three hundred billion dollars of revenue?”

“The models are going to purchase for you, right? They're going to do actions for you and the model, and then the company that does those actions for you, the model that will be able to take some sort of take rate, right? Even if it's like .1%, even if it's one…”

“If I could have an intelligence as smart as a Google senior engineer, that's two trillion dollars of software value, right? Because that's how much I pay, the world pays to software engineers today.”

“So this has happened in Texas, ERCOT, and it's happening in PJM which is the main, you know, the sort of northeast kind of area-ish. These two grids are putting these, like, rules where, hey, we're gonna actually say, hey, big loads, we can tell you, 24 hours …”

“They have ByteDance, who's, I think, the third largest user of GPUs in the world after OpenAI, and You know, probably Meta, although ByteDance may be bigger than Meta, the third largest user of GPUs in the world, or second maybe, even ByteDance is.”

“Nvidia created Blackwell, they had a ton of manufacturing problems and challenges with it for their supply chain balance sheets went up for, you know, various companies in the supply chain are building servers and stuff, because they're trying to figure it out…”

“XAI can get to the next stage of compute. They won't have more compute than OpenAI. They won't have more compute than any individual company at Google, Meta, et cetera, but they will have the biggest individual data center”

“They were able to acquire three million chips, 2.9 million chips from TSMC through these other entities, right? Roughly five hundred million dollars worth of orders”

“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”

“His facility's like a mile away from Mississippi, and he bought a power plant in Mississippi and he's putting turbines there. Yeah. The regulation is completely different, right?”

“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”

“The TPU team's next-gen designs are pretty non-aggressive, partially because a lot of the TPU team has left to go to OpenAI, the best people that I knew.”

“What has XAI actually done to deserve their prior funding rounds? They haven't released a leading edge model, right? And yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today, right?”

“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”

“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”

“Hugging Face's libraries are actually very inefficient, like incredibly inefficient for inference. You get like, 15% MBU on, on, on, on some configurations, like eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, 100, and LLAMA-seventy-beat, you get like, 15%, which is…”

“AMD. They have a GPU. MI 300. That will be better than the H 100 in a quarter or so. Now, that says nothing about how hard it is to program it, but at least hardware-wise, on paper, it's better.”

“TSMC is building a fab in Arizona. It's quite a bit smaller than the fabs in, in, in Taiwan, but even ignoring that, those fabs still have to ship everything to Taiwan back anyways. And also they have to get what's called a mask from Taiwan and get sent to get…”

“I think you've already seen server pricing go up like B 200, B 300 that you're buying now versus last year. The price is significantly higher. We've seen next generation hardware receive price increases before they've even started production. Like, here was th…”

“Now they're getting Tranium as well from Amazon.”

“There's a project we did on FPGAs, and it turns out there's a 120 FPGAs per, per next generation rack.”

“What, I think it's probably, like, Half or at least a third of researchers at labs are Chinese.”

“Google announced a hundred and eighty billion of capex. The stock went down and then Amazon announced two hundred billion of capex and their stock went down. Like, I want to say like 10%.”

“NVIDIA invested two billion in CoreWeave, but what's more important is that that's like sort of just like the sticker. What's really relevant is NVIDIA is going to work with CoreWeave to acquire and backstop and all these things, the land, the power, the energ…”

“TSMC is literally making chips for NVIDIA and Apple and AMD and others in Arizona today, right?”

“Meta's data center in Louisiana is getting protested because the water It's gonna be the largest data center in the world. It's gonna be like four or five gigawatts, at least announced so far.”

“So the OpenAI deal is like for seven 50 megawatts, it's not that much capacity. On the order of like what OpenAI has talked about, you know, by the end of 28 they'll be at like 16 gigawatts.”

“Yeah, so, so for the longest time Google's had, ah, one main line of TPUs, right? All made by Broadcom, and then sort of next year they've diverged it, right? Where Broadcom makes a TPU, ah, and MediaTek makes a TPU. These two TPUs are focused at different thi…”

“Because, you know, he signed a three hundred billion dollar deal with OpenAI, it's like.”

“Cursor has, like, I don't know, like, nearly a billion dollars of revenue now on a, if you do current month times 12.”

“CoreWeave recently got a deal with NVIDIA where it was like, they backstopped a cluster, right?”

“There have been more recent deals with crypto miners, Google, and Fluidstack, because Google's really short on data center capacity. People want to use more TPUs. They can't serve them all themselves, so they're gonna sell TPU systems to providers you know. Go…”

“You're telling me OpenAI is making a data center with two gigawatts and that's like the entirety of the power consumption of like Philadelphia.”

“500 megawatts is twenty five billion dollars of CapEx, like, come on, like, once you put in the GPUs and everything, right, it's like, that's a ton of money”

“Our revenue estimate for Nvidia in China for just H-twenty was north of twenty billion because that's what they were booking in capacity slash had to write off.”

“China, because they wanted, they sort of, like, wanted to stockpile lithography, and they were worried about the coming ban, they were importing lithography at a much higher rate than that, right? Like, 30, 40% of their equipment imports were lithography, and …”