The Ledger, every show

“Anthropic has gone from nine billion revenue to what they're at, 35, forty billion. Now probably by the time this airs, 40, forty-five billion. Who knows? ARR.”

“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”

“Well, actually they were using shell companies to get chips from TSMC and using Different methods of like sneaking HBM, which is memory from, you know, Korea through Taiwan to China, right?”

“Where you see Anthropic have gone from, like, what, like, a billion or less of revenue to seven to eight by, you know, already, and it's the fastest revenue ramp we've ever seen for anything of this capacity.”

“With OpenAI, it's not, and so there's gotta be some, like, error bars as you go further out in terms of, like, Will OpenAI exist in 28, 29 30, and will they be able to pay the 80 plus billion dollars a year that they've signed up to Oracle with, right?”

“Microsoft is not building Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”

“Huawei is still getting you know, wafers in Taiwan from TSMC through, like, shell companies, right?”

“Paris is you know, they have all this spare power. One of the funny things is like, they're like, oh, okay, let's build a bunch of data centers. But then Spain, Italy, Belgium the Netherlands and Germany All freaked out because it's like, oh wait, all this spa…”

“The BLS has this entire Bureau of Labor Statistics has this entire, like, set of, like, 2000 tasks, And so he did that with AI, which ones can be done by AI, which ones cannot and grading them across a rubric, you know, about three percent are doable now with …”

“And so I think in the next six to 18 months, we'll start seeing real breakthroughs in robotics that enable few shot learning, i.e. There's a pre-trained robot model, and now there's a robot that you have hired or bought or whatever. You showed a few examples a…”

“You look at the comments of news articles where Sam Altman had a Molotov cocktail thrown at his house twice in like two weeks.”

“Just in January, it went from four percent of or two percent of commits on GitHub to four percent of GitHub commits were done by Cloud Code, right?”

“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”

“In fact, they missed revenue last year significantly and yet they got bought, right? Because the value of the IP was there and the value of the team.”

“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”

“But as far as I understand, the national government has not banned Nvidia's H-twenty or H-two hundred, but the local ones have. Right. A lot of local ones have said, no, you know, you must use China manufactured chips.”

“ChatGPT has a billion users roughly.”

“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”

“Power is less than 10% of the cost of the cluster. Right? So, so like, it's that 90% you're not saving anything on.”

“Meta's licensed all of Midjourney's code, data, models.”

“Your revenue is like fifteen billion ARR this month, maybe, right, on a run rate basis. It'll get to 20 by the end of the year pretty, pretty clearly. Maybe it's like 16 now, but how do you pay three hundred billion dollars of revenue?”

“And it's like, but it's like, comparing them, like, these models now can, like, actually, like, figure out exactly what you want, and more than 10% of Etsy's traffic is straight from GPT.”

“The models are going to purchase for you, right? They're going to do actions for you and the model, and then the company that does those actions for you, the model that will be able to take some sort of take rate, right? Even if it's like .1%, even if it's one…”

“They're gonna, those companies aren't gonna do buybacks ever fucking again, right? Or not, like, ever again, but for a while. Because, like, they have way more, they think there's better ROI for their capital now.”

“If I could have an intelligence as smart as a Google senior engineer, that's two trillion dollars of software value, right? Because that's how much I pay, the world pays to software engineers today.”

“So this has happened in Texas, ERCOT, and it's happening in PJM which is the main, you know, the sort of northeast kind of area-ish. These two grids are putting these, like, rules where, hey, we're gonna actually say, hey, big loads, we can tell you, 24 hours …”

“They have ByteDance, who's, I think, the third largest user of GPUs in the world after OpenAI, and You know, probably Meta, although ByteDance may be bigger than Meta, the third largest user of GPUs in the world, or second maybe, even ByteDance is.”

“Nvidia created Blackwell, they had a ton of manufacturing problems and challenges with it for their supply chain balance sheets went up for, you know, various companies in the supply chain are building servers and stuff, because they're trying to figure it out…”

“XAI can get to the next stage of compute. They won't have more compute than OpenAI. They won't have more compute than any individual company at Google, Meta, et cetera, but they will have the biggest individual data center”

“They were able to acquire three million chips, 2.9 million chips from TSMC through these other entities, right? Roughly five hundred million dollars worth of orders”

“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”

“His facility's like a mile away from Mississippi, and he bought a power plant in Mississippi and he's putting turbines there. Yeah. The regulation is completely different, right?”

“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”

“The TPU team's next-gen designs are pretty non-aggressive, partially because a lot of the TPU team has left to go to OpenAI, the best people that I knew.”

“What has XAI actually done to deserve their prior funding rounds? They haven't released a leading edge model, right? And yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today, right?”

“Like with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference, because they've optimized it for very large language models, they've also decided, hey, we're gonna cut our margin, too, somewhat, beca…”

“In HBM, Samsung has almost no share, right? Especially at NVIDIA”

“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”

“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”

“LLM inference will be bigger than training, or multimodal, whatever, blah, blah, blah inference will be bigger than training, you know, probably next year, in fact at least in terms of GPUs deployed,”

“Hugging Face's libraries are actually very inefficient, like incredibly inefficient for inference. You get like, 15% MBU on, on, on, on some configurations, like eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, eight, 100, and LLAMA-seventy-beat, you get like, 15%, which is…”

“Intel bought that company from him, and then shut it down, and bought this other AI company, and now that company is kind of, ah, you know, got new chips. They're gonna release a better chip than the H 100, ah, within the next quarter or so, right?”

“AMD. They have a GPU. MI 300. That will be better than the H 100 in a quarter or so. Now, that says nothing about how hard it is to program it, but at least hardware-wise, on paper, it's better.”

“Nvidia's releasing a new chip, you know, in, you know, they're gonna announce it in March, and they're gonna release it, you know, and ship it, you know, Q-two, Q-three next year anyways, right? And that chip will probably be three or four times as good. Right…”

“TSMC is building a fab in Arizona. It's quite a bit smaller than the fabs in, in, in Taiwan, but even ignoring that, those fabs still have to ship everything to Taiwan back anyways. And also they have to get what's called a mask from Taiwan and get sent to get…”

“I think you've already seen server pricing go up like B 200, B 300 that you're buying now versus last year. The price is significantly higher. We've seen next generation hardware receive price increases before they've even started production. Like, here was th…”

“Anthropic Mythos is more expensive as a model, but it spends a lot less tokens to do the thing, and therefore it is actually cheaper in most tasks than four, six Opus, because it's just way more efficient, even though each individual token is smarter.”

“Now they're getting Tranium as well from Amazon.”