The Ledger, every show

“If Anthropic thinks cloud code is already a win, In six or 12 months from now, they won't even be around.”

“These products are not going to be used by you know, a hundred million people. But they will generate revenue that's going to be higher than the advertising revenue of Google or Meta. It's going to happen.”

“And in that era, I don't think Google is going to be the one single monopoly because they're already like far behind in this interface.”

“The whole experience is literally looking like perplexity, except it's still not as good.”

“The output tokens, if you're literally just a reseller of model tokens, you have no business. Because the model will get commoditized. So even if you're a model builder, you don't have a business.”

“It might not be inconceivable that Micron, the supplier of HPMs, might be more valuable than Meta in the next six to 12 months.”

“And definitely like companies like Anthropic lobbied very hard for it.”

“American government owns 10% of Intel. Nvidia and SoftBank own five percent each.”

“Yeah. I think so. I mean, I think, you know, they have contradictory messages in their own, like different social engagements so far, where the most reason when I heard was there is no evidence that AI is taking over jobs.”

“They have advantages, all, all advantages one needs to have to be that, but they underestimated the importance of coding models. And so they're far behind the frontier right now. So again, they could catch up totally capable, totally competent team, but today …”

“And 2024, 20 23 especially, and large part of 2024 too, Google had like, maybe a fourth or fifth best models at any moment. So as a startup outside Google, you had access to AI that was better than what Google internally had.”

“And agents can only be built with a browser. I, I'm very, like, convinced about that vision, that if you want to have a mobile agent, That you can actually build and implement without being restricted by whatever OS rules that Apple or Google sets in terms of …”

“I don't think Google should be broken up for two main reasons. One is, it's not even in the interest of America for Google to be broken up. And number two is, it doesn't actually increase competition. It's just gonna, like transfer from one monopoly to another…”

“The assistant that they have, Gemini, is actually pretty horrible, and the model is great, But the product is not.”

“Today, it's pretty obvious that most human software engineers, at least, like, the median human software engineer is probably worse than an AI today.”

“I'll just say it as blunt as it can be is there's not really a genuine differentiation between ChatGPT or Anthropic or Gemini or Grok or Meta AI. Right now.”

“Google has the least incentive to bring out AI native search or agents right there on core Google homepage or Google apps. It can be hidden in a mode or like sometimes firing some for some queries, but it's never going to be the central piece of it.”

“And the only reason Instagram is still fine is because TikTok is banned in, in, in many countries and particularly in India.”

“Microsoft was never really good at consumer products for a long, long time. You can't suddenly change that. So they actually messed up the opportunity, in my opinion.”

“Anthropic because they're algorithmically a superior company. Like they got whatever open AI got to with lower capital. They have better post training and like things like that.”

“This is where Google got it wrong because asymptotically they couldn't achieve that alignment between the user that is you using Google and the shareholder. Wall Street loves it when Google puts more ads. You hate it.”

“Like Sam Altman doesn't care, but he doesn't care because he's not interested in actually just focusing on product as a business. Like he's trying to build AGI.”

“So the first time, for the first time, we have had intelligence outside Google, like artificial intelligence outside Google, that's of higher quality than what is inside Google.”

“I think that's very fair use of other people's content. We're not stealing it. We're actually, like, just being a middleman between them and the end reader, and we're giving them more visibility, right?”

“Hence why, like, you know, I actually think Google is making a big mistake by trying to do whatever OpenAI is doing, right, like, going after them with the large, oh, I'm not, they're having GPT-IV, I'm going to turn Gemini.”

“We believe that building your own index is even harder than trying to compete with GPT-IV because it's not a problem that's just solved with money.”

“Yeah, I mean, like, if they don't want to be crawled, we shouldn't crawl them. You know, that's just being how the internet has worked. Like, you know, people have the robots, the text file, and like, you know, if they don't let you do it, then you should just…”

“And it's actually fair use. The fact that you're attributing credit is fair use.”

“The people who use the LLMs for building stuff, Understand it better than the people who actually did gradient descent and train these models.”

“I think it's just going to incentivize people to publish higher quality content. In order to get cited by an LLM powered answer, like Substack or things like that try to do, like you want to own your content and you publish it and make sure it's high quality a…”

“Especially a PhD student is one of the worst Jobs you can go for in a time when AI is so hot and so highly paid and you can do a startup or join a startup.”

“The frontier in AI is not about answering questions anymore. It's about actually going and doing work for you.”

“We, you know, like we still have the state of the art deep research in the world”

“The money, at least in non-advertising, I'm not talking about advertising revenue, in non-advertising subscription or usage-based revenue, the money is in whatever is the frontier. And today the frontier is about doing, going out there and doing things for you…”

“And so the chat interface doesn't capture that user intent, that user behavior right now, which is why it was never a great fit for advertising. And it also fundamentally corrupts the trust that people have when they go into a product and they want the accurat…”

“So I, I'm bearish on advertising to really take off in the chat interface. I, I'm happy to be proven wrong there, but I'm bearish on that.”

“And the way we differentiate ourselves at perplexity Is we don't just orchestrate across tools and files and connectors. We also orchestrate across models. That is the differentiation that Anthropic and OpenAI cannot claim”

“The one single, the most important metric in AI is token value for what? For user.”

“To be successful in AI product layer, whether you're a model builder or not, it's not about building something that gets a billion users. That mentality has to completely shift. There are a few power users who are propelling this token economy right now.”

“There are real engineers in meta and in other companies spending like ten million a year per engineer on, on, on, on these, you know, coding tools.”

“I think that's actually even bigger market that it's not even like think of it as like clock code multiplied by 10. That's the size of that market.”

“My prediction would be agents that are like completely autonomous software engineers. Today, I think we're all using Tools like CloudCode or Codex to write code, but not as literal software engineers.”

“No one's going to be able to afford a twenty-four-seven AI, Frontier AI, running on the server.”

“The real concern actually is the cost. Nobody's going to be able to afford it, a cron job at the fidelity of few seconds. You know that, that runs all the time. And so the bottleneck there is actually orchestration and local compute.”

“I believe that the 2407 always on agent is going to be realized by the company that wants to play the role of the orchestrator, not the model builder, not the frontier model, but the orchestrator.”

“If you can solve this problem, you will capture the most economic value in AI long-term. Short term, it might look like, oh, like this other lab's revenue is growing, you know, exponentially, this, that, but long term, this is the one objective that truly matt…”

“Agent loops, agent harnesses are all running on CPUs. The tokens are produced by the frontier models on GPUs, but whatever work, like, let's say like Claude generates a coding script that decides to download 500 files from different websites and then You know,…”

“I certainly think they can be sustainable.”