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TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Almost no consumer investment firms invest below $10M-$15M revenue
“There's hundreds of investment firms around the country that love consumer and retail, almost none of them will invest below 10 or fifteen million dollars in revenue.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 9:38 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: CPG founders take an average of 8 to 12 months to raise capital
“In that industry, because there's no Silicon Valley, it takes on average eight to 12 months to raise capital.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 21:41 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Caldbeck: The multi-year private market feedback loop limits repeat marketplace investing
“In the private markets, that feedback loop is much, much longer. You won't get your money back for years. And you can't really see the performance nearly as granularly, right? And it's just choppier. So that feedback loop leads investors to invest once or mayb…”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 25:44 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Not checkable as stated
A CircleUp investor made a 109x return on Beyond Meat
“When Beyond Meat went public one of their investors had met Beyond Meat through us, and he responded to the original introduction that we facilitated. And he responded to that email when they went public and said, thanks for this intro... And he told us that h…”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 26:03 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Caldbeck believes CircleUp's equity fund achieved top decile venture returns
“I think it was a top decile fund amongst all venture, by the way, not just consumer.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 44:26 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Caldbeck: Retail marketplace investors proved less sticky than institutions
“Marketplace model, while everyone originally thought it would be stickier, turns out people writing 1000 dollar checks is not stickier than a large institution large endowment or whatnot.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 1:04:10 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Most venture funds have 50% to 60% net contribution margins
“Most venture funds kind of like 50 to 60% net contribution margin. I mean, these things mint money, like it's an unbelievable profit pool.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 1:08:16 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
a16z Insight
Caldbeck: Failed physical retail expansion can kill early CPG companies
“So if you think of like the CPG products, they're selling through a third party, the retailer. Now they have to make a much bigger bet. They can't usually just start in five safe ways. So they have to start in 200. Now when you start in 200, flipping that and …”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 10:04 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Caldbeck: Grocery operates on thin 2-3% net margins, limiting tech disruption
“Grocery today, two, three percent net margin business. That's hard to strip out a lot of costs from that.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 14:13 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Insight
Caldbeck: Consumer receipt apps fail to capture long-tail CPG data
“The challenge has been many of them tap out at five, ten million consumers, at least here in the U.S. The problem with that level is that then that's such a small portion of the pot of the overall population that you're not capturing the long tail of companies…”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 25:09 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Offline retailers are eliminating or lowering product slotting fees
“Many of the offline retailers are eliminating or lowering slotting fees.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 28:00 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Large CPG companies spend only 2% of sales on R&D
“So today, large CPG spends about two percent of sales on R&D.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 38:49 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Insight
Caldbeck: Consumer sector winners grow in highly similar, predictable ways
“When you look at the winners and consumer, the previous winners looked really similar. That might have been a different, might have been a different magnitude, but they grew in really, really similar ways.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 43:01 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Institutional LPs are compensated mostly by fixed salary
“Right now, many, not all, but many of the LPs, their compensation is almost entirely salary. The bonus based on performance doesn't really move the needle for them that much.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 8:32 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Supported
USV and Benchmark are rare exceptions to VC fund bloat
“Union Square Ventures, Benchmark, or some other exceptions to what I said.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 14:05 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Partly supported
RXBar raised only $10,000 before selling to Kellogg's for $600M
“RX Bar, a snack bar, raised 10,000 dollars to sell for six hundred million dollars to Kellogg's.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 23:32 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Consumer startup valuations have dramatically lower volatility than tech
“The standard deviation of consumer company valuations is dramatically lower than the standard deviation of tech valuations.”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 24:29 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Consumer private equity firms only invest after $10M to $15M in revenue
“Most investors We'll only invest after a company hits 10 or fifteen million dollars in revenue.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 2:29 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
20VC Disclosure
CircleUp shares unedited board decks with all employees every 60 days
“Everyone in the company has complete access to all the metrics. We present the board deck every 60 days, completely unedited.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 20:39 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Consumer PE averaged 22% IRR over 15 years with half tech's volatility
“According to Cambridge associates, it's averaged a 22% IRR for 15 years, never negative vintage and half the volatility of tech.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 9:08 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Earned more in private equity than as CircleUp CEO
“More than I more, more, more than I make per year now, frankly.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 14:09 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Worked under 40 hours weekly at Encore Consumer Capital
“The hours were great. I worked less than 40 hours a week, and I probably was on ESPN.com 10 times a day.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 14:24 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: CircleUp had 14 straight record growth months before pivoting
“What I should mention is for 14 months or so in a row before we pivoted, ending two or three months before we pivoted, each month was a record month.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 30:59 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
a16z Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Credit card data shows merchant total sales, not SKU-level purchases
“The problem with credit card data is it can tell you what the retailer is selling, not what was bought at the retailer. So I can see what Nordstrom.com sales were last month. I can't see what pairs of jeans were bought there.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 10:45 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
a16z Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Tech companies spend 14% of sales on R&D
“Tech spends about 14% of sales on R&D.”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 38:53 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
20VC Assertion Supported
Halo Top Creamery generates hundreds of millions in revenue
“Halo top ice cream, which is now a couple hundred million dollar revenue company”
Ryan Caldbeck Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 12:29 20VC: Ryan Caldbeck on Why The Business Model of VC is Broken, Who is To Blame, How The Best Funds Will Use Data Intelligently Moving Forward & Whether We Are In A Consumer Bubble Or Not?
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
CircleUp's average check size grew from $12K to over $100K
“In 2012 when we first started the average check on circle up was 12,000 dollars and it was all from individual investors accredited investors in 2015 the average individual check was over a 100,000 dollars into a single deal on circle up and half the capital c…”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 13:07 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
20VC Assertion Supported
CircleUp's 2012 seed round was rejected by over 60 investors
“And raised our seed round, which Maveron and Clayton Christensen wrote the book called the innovators dilemma through his hedge fund, Rose Park. They led that back in in 2012. That was a very hard round for us to raise, to be frank with you. And I think we wen…”
Ryan Caldbeck Feb 12, 2016 ▶ 15:43 20VC FF 035: Why Crowdfunding Is Not Right For Tech Startups with Ryan Caldbeck @ CircleUp
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